Yes... you are bad at quoting... Perhaps you should proofread your posts more carefully since there was also confusion on what you meant with the slip that you knew more about the set up than you did.
I am not ever going to apologize for someone quoting a quarter of a sentence out of context and then trying to make something out of it. The person you're looking for on this "causing confusion" charge is not me.
I am not certain that it is not a 50/50 split. But that's not something I'd like to gamble heavy on, because I think it's more like...40% likely that it's 50/50. It could easily be an odd number of scum, especially if you have loner scums or neutrals, and if it is an even number of scum it may well not be 50/50.
the scum are half-male and half-female - which is not the case.
Is there something you know about the scum splits here that the general public does not know?
Just how do you know that the split isn't half and half?
Oh good heavens. Must be election season if we're quoting half-sentences now and someone else is barning it.
I'll quote a little more of the sentence:
Quote from LampDwellr »
even if you do decide that it's 90% likely the scum are half-male and half-female - which is not the case.
It is not the case that [it is 90% likely that the scum are half-and-half], is what I was saying. An awkward sentence, but not as awkward as saying "even if you do decide that it's 90% likely the scum are half-male and half female - which is not actually the confidence interval I would assign such a circumstance."
~~~~~~
Back to the actual conversation.
Quote from Kankennon »
In all reality, the fact that I'm a jokester by nature will surely lead to my early death until people get used to me and say, "Oh that's just Kank. He does that no matter what side he's on."
You keep making this error where you think that people think that being silly is worth killing someone for. I don't agree.
Saying stuff that's quasi-relevant and then when challenged saying "I was being silly" is the thing I was talking about. And now here's that "I will surely die" fatalism stuff. Which is another one of those quasi-scummy things.
I don't plan on lurking in any game ever. Since I don't have past games of my own to rely upon, I have to make use of the past games of others, and I found it numerically odd that so far every day one lynch in the 23/24 player Normal games this year have hit a townie.
I'll stop with the odds from other games and focus on the odds for this one.
We have 23 players.
12 are male characters, 11 are female.
Mafia history would tell us that 25% of these players are scum, and the rest are townsfolk.
If so, that would mean that 6 players are likely to be scum or evil (Gotham had 5 scum and a serial killer).
It would make sense for Arcadic to split the scum/SK into equal halves between the genders, even though in reality, they'd pretty much all be male, but this is a game based on an animated television series and anything goes in those.
So, lets say that there are 3 baddies in the men and 3 baddies in the women.
Right now the males outnumber the females, and if they wanted to, they could team up and wipe out all of the females and practically assure themselves of hitting half of the baddies in the process.
I doubt that Arcadic planned the game to operate like that, so let's not okay? (I'm playing a female after all.)
So the barns are on IB, Maokun, and myself is that right?
I'm not seeing IB behave any differently than the other games I watched him get lynched early in and flip town.
Maokun? No idea. I'm not seeing the guilt you've lain upon this person.
If y'all want me dead instead, then so be it. I'd be bummed, but I'd get over it. It would be a shame though, because I'd actually play the game as opposed to sit around and lurk.
Your assumption that there are 6 scum and 3 are male and 3 are female seems problematic for a number of reasons. Your reasoning from it also strikes me as spurious, because the order in which you kill people matters even if you do decide that it's 90% likely the scum are half-male and half-female - which is not the case.
Since we're gaming the setup a bit here, why do you think it is likely that there are an equal number of M/F scum, exactly?
Hitting half the baddies in 11 lynches is pretty horrible anyway, with nightkills included!
BUT ANYWAY, you're doing this thing through your posts where you're like "sorry I was really joking, sorry you couldn't tell, don't persecute me for making jokes!" If everything you say is half-serious this is a very convenient position for you, wouldn't you say?
General statement is general. I get that you voted for me because I outwardly warned of my use of humor and sarcasm, which obviously means that if you use it or even warn people that you plan to use humor/sarcasm no matter what, then that also brands you as scummy, no matter what.
Nah, it seemed overly self-aware.
Quote from Kankennon »
Seriously, I only had like 15 minutes to check things out at the time, and I figured that checking Normal games was the best use of my time since this game has been labled a "Normal" game.
If this Normal game is not actually a Normal game, then so be it.
In any case, if Mafia players account for 25% of the players, then wouldn't you think they'd get hit at least 25% of the time out of the gate? All I found that it was an odd statistic that sampled a small portion of the total games played, yes.
Does it have any bearing in this game?
Probably not.
Feel free to throw facts and statistics around however you like.
I'm done looking up past game statistics and will focus my numbers on the game at hand.
I think looking up past game statistics is pretty interesting and informative! So did you. You depart quickly, though. Why??
I think you would expect to hit scum about 15% of the time on D1, because scum represent only 25-30% of the players and scum can also vote, which increases the likelihood of a successful townie wagon. It's hard to hit scum unless they bus.
What I found interesting was the 100% part! It means that some of the things people in normals on THIS VERY FORUM are seeing as scummy probably aren't!
It's still protown to vote people.
Lastly, Kank, to finish this post, you claim that you would change your vote if someone strikes you as a better candidate. What things are you looking for that would point more towards someone being scum? What are you watching out for?
Other than weeding out the non-players right now, I was looking for behavior that seemed odd to me.
My own behavior, no matter what, will seem odd to some people and logical to others.
If I'm too late to the wagon on a scum player, then I'll appear scummy.
If I'm too early or too late to a townie lynching, then I'll also appear scummy.
I'm sure me just stating these things makes me appear scummy as well, since townies don't ever say anything of the sort ever.
What it all comes down to is that day one appears to just be a random lynching of whoever that usually ends up flipping town.
This is the only legit reason for voting IB, but looking at IB's tone and the rest of his play this game, I'm inclined to think he's town that's got himself into hot water as usual.
Vote Kankennon
Kank is a noob, to be sure, but he's the more experienced level of noob. He's been around the site for a while, has played in clan games before I believe and has got the gist of mafia. I believe he's on of those players that really wanted to be prepared for what they were getting into when they sign up for mafia. That being said, I'm keeping the noob excuse in my mind, but I'm not giving it as much thought as I would others. Moving on...
Kank's track record so far this game has consisted of two things: voting for people outside the game and digging into old game information. In other words, he's playing for appearances. Given the fact that he's been trying to justify his non-important votes, I'm inclined to believe it's an attempt to seem active while keeping the heat off of him. Secondly, while digging up old game information may seem townie and productive, the hard facts are that any player, town or scum, has access to those old games and can post those things. Scum tend to like to do it more, because it allows them to keep posting things that appear to be content.
I believe that Kank is smart enough to know that he's not going to be able to lurk through this game. Because he knows this, he's trying to make frequent posts yet still make them safe posts things he's not going to step on toes with.
I would like to hear from Kank about these matters.
I don't plan on lurking in any game ever. Since I don't have past games of my own to rely upon, I have to make use of the past games of others, and I found it numerically odd that so far every day one lynch in the 23/24 player Normal games this year have hit a townie.
I'll stop with the odds from other games and focus on the odds for this one.
We have 23 players.
12 are male characters, 11 are female.
Mafia history would tell us that 25% of these players are scum, and the rest are townsfolk.
If so, that would mean that 6 players are likely to be scum or evil (Gotham had 5 scum and a serial killer).
It would make sense for Arcadic to split the scum/SK into equal halves between the genders, even though in reality, they'd pretty much all be male, but this is a game based on an animated television series and anything goes in those.
So, lets say that there are 3 baddies in the men and 3 baddies in the women.
Right now the males outnumber the females, and if they wanted to, they could team up and wipe out all of the females and practically assure themselves of hitting half of the baddies in the process.
I doubt that Arcadic planned the game to operate like that, so let's not okay? (I'm playing a female after all.)
So the barns are on IB, Maokun, and myself is that right?
I'm not seeing IB behave any differently than the other games I watched him get lynched early in and flip town.
Maokun? No idea. I'm not seeing the guilt you've lain upon this person.
If y'all want me dead instead, then so be it. I'd be bummed, but I'd get over it. It would be a shame though, because I'd actually play the game as opposed to sit around and lurk.[/QUOTE]
Your assumption that there are 6 scum and 3 are male and 3 are female seems problematic for a number of reasons. Your reasoning from it also strikes me as spurious, because the order in which you kill people matters even if you do decide that it's 90% likely the scum are half-male and half-female - which is not the case.
Since we're gaming the setup a bit here, why do you think it is likely that there are an equal number of M/F scum, exactly?
Hitting half the baddies in 11 lynches is pretty horrible anyway, with nightkills included!
BUT ANYWAY, you're doing this thing through your posts where you're like "sorry I was really joking, sorry you couldn't tell, don't persecute me for making jokes!" If everything you say is half-serious this is a very convenient position for you, wouldn't you say?
Oh I totally get that me posting so much already is putting a target sign on my back, from either townies willing to jump on the Kankwagon because I seem to be so scummy, or from nervous scummers worried that I might be too active and able to root them out.
That is not why I am voting you and not why I said I was voting you, fwiw
There's probably an acronym for this that I don't know, but a surprisingly effective, kind of scummy tactic in games with new people is to gain town cred by saying neutral things that clarify game rules/game states/strategy/etc. I do it all the time. It's protown in the most surface way possible, but it is often a scum thing to do. The whole "I'd encourage people to start saying real things and actually playing" with no content meeting that description makes this look like cheap town point scoring. Thoughts?
I know what you mean, I often call out people on it as well. However, this time I felt I had to do it because people seemed to be just going on and on with oog things, my fellow clan members (the Crafters) especially.
Sure. Anyway, Do you have anything observational to say?
~~~~
Quote from EtR »
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kahedron For all I am finding I.B a little more aggressive and sensitive than he has been in other games I have to agree with him.
Eron why the vote? Despite having a quote that is ultimately a barn to move the game on a bit your vote is nude. Of the pair why did you go for I.Baloth who merely agreed with the sentiment as opposed to Wessel who suggested it.
Wessel's post essentially says "stop joking, start posting reads". Infectious barns it but provides no reads or commentary of his own. It appears that IB is attempting to come across as helpful town by barning something that comes from a town mentality, but actually does what he was barning in the post, (I.e. not posting any real content)
Why is infectiousbaloth's post worse than Wessel's in your opinion?
~~~~
Quote from Kankennon »
Very well, I'll stop with the jokey votes then if it's time to really start playing.
Unvote
Yes, this is my first official Mafia game so feel free to label me with whatever sort of noob Post-It notes you desire. Be sure not to consider me using humor or sarcasm as a tell in either direction, because that's how I always am 24/7. (Feel free to check back in any of my 10,000+ posts.)
It's way too early for me to get a read on anyone yet, and no, I'm not going to jump off a bridge just because everyone else is doing it.
One of my all-time pet peeves is people who commit to playing a game and then never show up to play it.
With that said, I'll place my official vote on whoever shows up LAST, between Seppel and captaineddie.
I got no anti-noob bias; you don't look confused here. I think you'll probably be good at this game, actually.
I do have anti-"please don't think I'm scummy if I do X" bias, though. And - for example - I haven't voted yet, but I'm not making a show of not voting yet. A lot of new players don't want to die early in their first game, so it could be that. On the other hand, it could be...
See, I didn't know that. I was talking mostly from my experiences with IRL Werewolf where retaliation occurs mostly from townies that believe a werewolf is trying to get rid of them since only werewolves know exactly how they are voting.
Heh, I don't even know what "RVS" is... so many acronyms.
Personally I've never really seen why OMGUS voting is actually scummy anyway. Like, it seems like one of those things people say is scummy because it's stupid, so it's a way to discourage it. Only people who are gonna seriously OMGUS vote as scum are ridiculously noobish - not even new, just incapable of seeing the impact of such a thing. And at that point they're as likely to do it as town because it's emotional.
~~~~~~~~~
Quote from Macius »
Its odd in that while I am thinking the same way, I still always wonder if mao is maybe using newness as an advantage here.
I know that I used the newbie card before, even though I knew what was going on....
Odd probably wasnt the right word now that I think about it...[/ QUOTE]
Using newness as an advantage to achieve what, at this moment?
~~~~~~~
[QUOTE=Kankennon]I checked back with all of the Normal Mafia games ran this year, and in every single one on Day 1, a townie was lynched.
The odds are that whoever everyone jumps on today will most likely be a townie as well.
Interesting! I know why it'd be 75/25 or so in favor of a townie getting lynched, but why do you think it's 100%? That's a lot.
Quote from Kankennon »
I'm perfectly content with leaving my vote on the (currently) not-playing Iso.
I don't think "because townies usually get lynched I'm not gonna vote for anyone" is very reasonable. Townies getting lynched day one lets you check the wagon for the weakest justifications, and helps you scumhunt. It's virtually always protown to lynch SOMEBODY. I think I remember you saying you're kinda new at Mafia, is that true?
~~~~~~~
Quote from Wessel »
But I think there are now enough indications that the RVS is over, so I would like to ask everyone to just stop talking about different things and start playing the game. Or at least, I would like everyone to give their views on what's happening in the game (like, do you think anyone's post is indicative of their alignment, etcetera). Let's get this game going.
There's probably an acronym for this that I don't know, but a surprisingly effective, kind of scummy tactic in games with new people is to gain town cred by saying neutral things that clarify game rules/game states/strategy/etc. I do it all the time. It's protown in the most surface way possible, but it is often a scum thing to do. The whole "I'd encourage people to start saying real things and actually playing" with no content meeting that description makes this look like cheap town point scoring. Thoughts?
unvote; vote maokun a little self-aware, aren't we?
Horribly self aware about what exactly? That he is new to the site so doesn't know the meta. Heck due to the crafters the same could be said of half the game.
Whats Maokan done to ping you so badly to sick a vote on him so quickly.
That's actually pretty cool. He's been my favorite card for ages. Obviously outclassed now, but I always had fun with him.
I had a red/white control deck that I tinkered with in my not-so-good-at-Magic days - looked at pro tour results and saw what they were doing with similar decks, tried to adjust the deck, and Eron the Relentless was almost always a 1-of because he put a solid clock on them once I Wrathed or Earthquaked, and they couldn't just rip Terror or Drain him or whatever.
In retrospect I think the deck was mainly good because 4 Swords + 4 Bolts is a pretty absurd way to start a deck.
Wow AOL huh?
I only ever used them as a free service until my X number of free hours ran out and then I'd close the account. This was before the Internet was big mind you. Once I found a local dial-up that only charged $5 a month for unlimited service, I never bothered with the AOL gimmicks again.
I am not ever going to apologize for someone quoting a quarter of a sentence out of context and then trying to make something out of it. The person you're looking for on this "causing confusion" charge is not me.
Make serious posts, not random needling.
Oh good heavens. Must be election season if we're quoting half-sentences now and someone else is barning it.
I'll quote a little more of the sentence:
It is not the case that [it is 90% likely that the scum are half-and-half], is what I was saying. An awkward sentence, but not as awkward as saying "even if you do decide that it's 90% likely the scum are half-male and half female - which is not actually the confidence interval I would assign such a circumstance."
~~~~~~
Back to the actual conversation.
You keep making this error where you think that people think that being silly is worth killing someone for. I don't agree.
Saying stuff that's quasi-relevant and then when challenged saying "I was being silly" is the thing I was talking about. And now here's that "I will surely die" fatalism stuff. Which is another one of those quasi-scummy things.
HERE
Your assumption that there are 6 scum and 3 are male and 3 are female seems problematic for a number of reasons. Your reasoning from it also strikes me as spurious, because the order in which you kill people matters even if you do decide that it's 90% likely the scum are half-male and half-female - which is not the case.
Since we're gaming the setup a bit here, why do you think it is likely that there are an equal number of M/F scum, exactly?
Hitting half the baddies in 11 lynches is pretty horrible anyway, with nightkills included!
BUT ANYWAY, you're doing this thing through your posts where you're like "sorry I was really joking, sorry you couldn't tell, don't persecute me for making jokes!" If everything you say is half-serious this is a very convenient position for you, wouldn't you say?
Nah, it seemed overly self-aware.
I think looking up past game statistics is pretty interesting and informative! So did you. You depart quickly, though. Why??
I think you would expect to hit scum about 15% of the time on D1, because scum represent only 25-30% of the players and scum can also vote, which increases the likelihood of a successful townie wagon. It's hard to hit scum unless they bus.
What I found interesting was the 100% part! It means that some of the things people in normals on THIS VERY FORUM are seeing as scummy probably aren't!
It's still protown to vote people.
Other than weeding out the non-players right now, I was looking for behavior that seemed odd to me.
My own behavior, no matter what, will seem odd to some people and logical to others.
If I'm too late to the wagon on a scum player, then I'll appear scummy.
If I'm too early or too late to a townie lynching, then I'll also appear scummy.
I'm sure me just stating these things makes me appear scummy as well, since townies don't ever say anything of the sort ever.
What it all comes down to is that day one appears to just be a random lynching of whoever that usually ends up flipping town.
I'd rather that not be me.
I don't plan on lurking in any game ever. Since I don't have past games of my own to rely upon, I have to make use of the past games of others, and I found it numerically odd that so far every day one lynch in the 23/24 player Normal games this year have hit a townie.
I'll stop with the odds from other games and focus on the odds for this one.
We have 23 players.
12 are male characters, 11 are female.
Mafia history would tell us that 25% of these players are scum, and the rest are townsfolk.
If so, that would mean that 6 players are likely to be scum or evil (Gotham had 5 scum and a serial killer).
It would make sense for Arcadic to split the scum/SK into equal halves between the genders, even though in reality, they'd pretty much all be male, but this is a game based on an animated television series and anything goes in those.
So, lets say that there are 3 baddies in the men and 3 baddies in the women.
Right now the males outnumber the females, and if they wanted to, they could team up and wipe out all of the females and practically assure themselves of hitting half of the baddies in the process.
I doubt that Arcadic planned the game to operate like that, so let's not okay? (I'm playing a female after all.)
So the barns are on IB, Maokun, and myself is that right?
I'm not seeing IB behave any differently than the other games I watched him get lynched early in and flip town.
Maokun? No idea. I'm not seeing the guilt you've lain upon this person.
If y'all want me dead instead, then so be it. I'd be bummed, but I'd get over it. It would be a shame though, because I'd actually play the game as opposed to sit around and lurk.[/QUOTE]
Your assumption that there are 6 scum and 3 are male and 3 are female seems problematic for a number of reasons. Your reasoning from it also strikes me as spurious, because the order in which you kill people matters even if you do decide that it's 90% likely the scum are half-male and half-female - which is not the case.
Since we're gaming the setup a bit here, why do you think it is likely that there are an equal number of M/F scum, exactly?
Hitting half the baddies in 11 lynches is pretty horrible anyway, with nightkills included!
BUT ANYWAY, you're doing this thing through your posts where you're like "sorry I was really joking, sorry you couldn't tell, don't persecute me for making jokes!" If everything you say is half-serious this is a very convenient position for you, wouldn't you say?
That is not why I am voting you and not why I said I was voting you, fwiw
Sure. Anyway, Do you have anything observational to say?
~~~~
Why is infectiousbaloth's post worse than Wessel's in your opinion?
~~~~
I got no anti-noob bias; you don't look confused here. I think you'll probably be good at this game, actually.
I do have anti-"please don't think I'm scummy if I do X" bias, though. And - for example - I haven't voted yet, but I'm not making a show of not voting yet. A lot of new players don't want to die early in their first game, so it could be that. On the other hand, it could be...
Vote: Kankennon
Personally I've never really seen why OMGUS voting is actually scummy anyway. Like, it seems like one of those things people say is scummy because it's stupid, so it's a way to discourage it. Only people who are gonna seriously OMGUS vote as scum are ridiculously noobish - not even new, just incapable of seeing the impact of such a thing. And at that point they're as likely to do it as town because it's emotional.
~~~~~~~~~
Interesting! I know why it'd be 75/25 or so in favor of a townie getting lynched, but why do you think it's 100%? That's a lot.
I don't think "because townies usually get lynched I'm not gonna vote for anyone" is very reasonable. Townies getting lynched day one lets you check the wagon for the weakest justifications, and helps you scumhunt. It's virtually always protown to lynch SOMEBODY. I think I remember you saying you're kinda new at Mafia, is that true?
~~~~~~~
There's probably an acronym for this that I don't know, but a surprisingly effective, kind of scummy tactic in games with new people is to gain town cred by saying neutral things that clarify game rules/game states/strategy/etc. I do it all the time. It's protown in the most surface way possible, but it is often a scum thing to do. The whole "I'd encourage people to start saying real things and actually playing" with no content meeting that description makes this look like cheap town point scoring. Thoughts?
What's with the white-knighting, yo?
So yeah, definitely not a flavor-maven here.
Flaven-maven
Flavor-mavor
Speaking of terrible lynch rationales.
Man, you are really not very annoying, so this must be a sort of attempt to earn townie cred.
Unvote
Vote: Kankennon
Vote: Kankennon
(I'm revealing my double vote power on day 0.)
I had a red/white control deck that I tinkered with in my not-so-good-at-Magic days - looked at pro tour results and saw what they were doing with similar decks, tried to adjust the deck, and Eron the Relentless was almost always a 1-of because he put a solid clock on them once I Wrathed or Earthquaked, and they couldn't just rip Terror or Drain him or whatever.
In retrospect I think the deck was mainly good because 4 Swords + 4 Bolts is a pretty absurd way to start a deck.
I was 14 and my family had an account.
I liked roleplaying chatrooms.