So, This isn't anything exciting or really new, but I've been noticing that with different decks gaining popularity in older formats and the mass number of reprints Tarmogoyf has been pretty steadily declining in price (I can get a playset for $210 on TCGPlayer right now, and I'm betting scouring eBay could do better).
Is it time to buy?
What do you think is the rock bottom price for Goyf?
It's worth noting that Kaalia doesn't use the words "defending player", but the most likely reference to this would be that the creature she brings in would be attacking player 2 (the original defending opponent), based on rule 802.2a:
Any rule, object, or effect that refers to a “defending player” refers to one specific defending
player, not to all of the defending players. If an ability of an attacking creature refers to a
defending player, or a spell or ability refers to both an attacking creature and a defending player,
then unless otherwise specified, the defending player it’s referring to is the player that creature
was attacking at the time it became an attacking creature that combat, or the controller of the
planeswalker that creature was attacking at the time it became an attacking creature that combat.
If a spell or ability could apply to multiple attacking creatures, the appropriate defending player
is individually determined for each of those attacking creatures. If there are multiple defending
players that could be chosen, the controller of the spell or ability chooses one.
I could see the ruling taking a slightly different turn because of some ambiguity in the specific card rulings here:
The official ruling for Portal Mage is:
If an ability targets something controlled by the “defending player” of an attacking creature and the defending player for that creature changes before that ability resolves, the ability will be countered because its target has become illegal.
Combined with the ruling on Kaalia:
If the opponent Kaalia attacked is no longer in the game when its ability resolves, you may put an Angel, Demon, or Dragon creature card onto the battlefield tapped, but it won't be attacking anyone and it won't be an attacking creature.
While Kaalia doesn't use the words "Defending Player", it's inconsistent wording where the intended meaning is clear. If there was an errata, it would probably make the ruling: you get the tapped creature, but it's not attacking anyone because the target became invalid. Personally, I think this would make more sense for game-state.
I can't see any interpretation of the rules that would have it attack player 3.
Because a final ruling requires clearing up the ambiguity in the card wordings and initial specific card rulings, it'll probably need review by someone who can adjust / write official clarification for the official rules to get a definitive answer. So, while my answer may not be perfect, it might be a bit before you get a really good answer. The rules appear to directly contradict each other here.
So, I figured I'd get the deck written out before PT gets too far, just in case I'm not the only one tinkering with it. I'm kinda surprised I don't see anyone doing anything even close. Testing has gone really well for me, but I haven't had much chance to hit up tournaments lately. So, All I can go on is my own testing vs copycat, g/w humans and u/w flash.
I think the only other comment to make is that when I look at it the manabase seems really greedy, but between Unbridled Growth, Renegade Map and Glint-Sleeve Siphoner, it's never had a problem finding lands, or even finding the right lands.
So, I've been considering doing a Delver Build for Legacy, either BUG or RUG. (Still undecided)... I'm looking at new stuff and wondering if Greenwheel Liberator may be better than Tarmogoyf in this one particular archetype. In BUG it's basically always a 4/3 and is fine with us paying Delvecosts or using Deathrite Shaman. In RUG you also get freedom when using Grim Lavamancer while picking up the same 4/3. He's susceptible to Lightning Bolt, which is a drawback, but I can't help but wonder if the ease of getting power and freedom to utilize other abilities doesn't make up for that. I don't play a ton of competitive legacy though, so I'm not sure how common a drawback that is. From my experience, if I see removal in a legacy game, it's something that would have killed either one anyways (Path to Exile, Swords to Plowshares, Dismember). Also with new stuff coming in there's Fatal Push, which I would expect to make toughness less relevant.
I kinda doubt Mono-R aggro or burn being a thing in the current format, but I could definitely see there being decks with heavy red influences. I have played Temur Dragons since DTK came out and it's always done well enough. I wouldn't be surprised to see a deck running Nahiri + GDD to pop up as a major contender. I'm not saying I expect it to happen, but there's plenty of potential there if someone wanted to take the time to explore the options and refine it. The problem with a R/x midrange or control builds always comes in the fine tuning of building in enough tempo to match with your control options. You aren't able to play control for the long game, you're playing tempo with enough control to slide through. Striking the right balance is an art that takes a lot of time and testing against the field. With things like Bant being so easy to build and Auto-Pilot, I don't know that anyone would want to put the effort into developing this. If it were developed to be better than current decks, it would need to be a significant advantage to be worth playing. The heightened skill requirement and more difficult choices the deck would incur would mean that if the gap in possible performance were too narrow, real world play would still favor bant or tokens that are more auto-pilot friendly.
So, Standard Spirits I think is going to be scary. I don't know whether I can give full Credit to Spell Queller or Mausoleum Wanderer... but the list of great cards for that deck is too long and those are a big part of it. It's important to remember that deck also gets Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit and Spectral Shepherd (Important, Shepherd + Queller works like old ETB-LTB Shenanigans). Splash Green for Tamiyo, Field Researcher and Collected Company, Dromoka's Command and maybe some sideboard and I think we know why Spirits belong in the horror genre.
Honorable mentions: Tamiyo, Field Researcher - I love the utility, but she needs the right deck and is really in a support role, not a feature role. Grim Flayer - he looks great as a 2-drop, I'm just not sure how I feel about him overall. Elder Deep-Fiend - He's great for tempo, but I don't like that, for what he costs, he isn't going to turn the game around if you're not already tempo-ing out. Deploy the Gatewatch - I love this card and intend to play it, but I do like it better for modern where 5-color is easier and I can hit Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, Garruk, Apex Predator, and Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker Heron's Grace Champion - This is a finisher.
A lot of that also has to do with temporary value loss because the market is full of the cards right now though. I'm still perfectly happy to open vindicates, argothian enchantresses, sinkholes, enlightened tutors, deathrite shamans... etc. Their value will increase again quick enough. EV on pack is generally stable at 20% under the pack price. When EV is at pack price or over is when things get crazy. Worldgorger is even playable, which is pretty cool. Even the non-value card in the set are fun and playable, so I'll always call that a win.
Meh, that's the point of packs. There need to be duds. If there weren't then either the value of the set as a whole would tank, or packs would start selling at $50 each instead of $10. Just think about it for a minute. The value of the pack and the set as a whole are tightly linked based on the EV that you can expect to get from opening a large amount of product. If the EV goes too high, pack prices go up. if EV goes too low, they stop selling and pack prices go down. If WOTC wants to see things move at MSRP while maintaining powerful cards in a set. It just means that the cooler the things they want to print either: the more, and worse duds they have to throw in. to balance it out; They raise MSRP to match; or a combination of the 2.
So, the last few standard tournaments I decided to just play all the good cards I could cram into one deck and ended up with an Abzan Midrange not like anything anyone else was running and it did amazing. It was the true epitome of a "Junk" deck: No synergies, just a bunch of cards that are all amazing on their own. So, I'm thinking that with the new set coming in and all of my favorite Eldrazi still sticking around, I ought to be okay doing the same thing again. The best part was that it wasn't even dependent on fetch lands. So, here's my first rough draft of "Mardu Good Stuff".
I think that's a solid starting point going into first week of standard after my pre-orders arrive. That said, there are a lot of other solid possibilities with SOI and tons of different potential strategies to follow. For early in the format I just like a stable deck with as much as I can get tried and true. I will also note, there are too many potential honorable mentions in that part of the color pie to even try to mention them all. There are a lot of different ways the deck could go with creatures and spell choices. Mardu Dragons seems like a really solid choice as well, but I played Dragons way too much before rotation and I just want something different for a bit.
The only way I see to fix this is to do a few things:
Unban a whole lot of stuff that shouldn’t have been there in the first place.
Introduce a few new things, either through standard or in a custom product for modern that can do for modern what Force of Will and Wasteland do in legacy.
Only once that is done, go back and correct one or 2 old bannings where maybe something needed banned, but they hit the wrong card.
Remember moving forward that the game has to come first. Without the game, WoTC doesn’t have anything to monetize. So while it is important to have a plan to monetize, the health of the game as a game has to come first.
TL;DR: It feels to me like WoTC has forgotten that Priority #1 needs to be keeping the game fun so the business lasts and they're just trying to liquidate the franchise, getting as much out of it now as they can, and not worrying about keeping the business stable in the long term.
Second Edit Addition: Just a short added note / disclaimer. I think it's important to remember and state clearly here that what players ask for and what is best for the game aren't always the same. I realize that you can't please everyone all the time in relation to B&R. The focus is on keeping the game functional, not pleasing everyone. If you keep the format functional, the rest works itself out in time.
Third Thoughts Chiming in: The more I think about it. A healthy format that regulated itself and had a place for both the guy who wants to keep playing the same deck (with minimal updates), and the guy who wants to brew into the latest trend would probably be easier to monetize than what we have right now anyways. So, it would really be a win-win for everyone.
This isn't a win-win, because the format you're describing would be functionally very close to Legacy without the dual-lands. What is the incentive to have two formats so closely aligned?
Other than the Eldrazi problem, Modern's fine with a significantly different feel than either Legacy or Standard. Wizards has indicated that's where they want it to stay.
If you want a format with a ton of unbans from the Modern list, Wasteland and Force of Will....Legacy does exist. Either pony up for the mana base or work around a budget mana base and play it.
I have the Duals, and do play Legacy. About half my ABUR Duals are from when I first started playing back in 1994. The reason I'm interested in getting into Modern is more for the reason Bocephus mentioned. There's only so much opportunity to play sanctioned Legacy, and just because I have those things doesn't mean they're readily accessible to a large playgroup around me. Me having them is only half the battle... A game of Magic requires more than 1 player. Also, I can't say I would necessarily want FoW or Wasteland in Modern. Just something that can fill the roles they play in legacy to keep the format in check.
Huge difference. Modern is a showcase format they are supporting in multiple ways. Legacy is a dying format they dont support. To me you are comparing apples to oranges. Also you are forgetting Legacy has a much higher power level then Modern. With the same cards coming into the formats having the lower powered format have about doube the bans in the same amount of time sounds right to me just to keep the difference in the power levels and play of the 2 formats.
I also dont see much in the way of unbans coming. Maybe AV and thats a huge maybe. Everything else is on the list for a while, read a couple years at least. Some will never come off period, AF has said as much.
Eternal Masters? Just to make the point that WoTC doesn't consider Legacy a lost cause like you do. If you think about it, that probably wouldn't even be a thing if Modern wasn't hurting so badly.
The AF interview spilled all the beans in my opinion. They don't think anything they've done is wrong. They plan on banning Eldrazi with the next update, and for the last 5 years they see the format as working as intended. They need to be allowed to make new magic cards and if those cards break modern they will just ban the problem cards as soon as possible.
Honestly I don't think there is anything wrong with this approach. As AF said, it's been working just fine for 5 years, things like the eldrazi deck are going to happen from time to time. 3 months isnt a long time to wait for them to correct issues like this.
The only problem with that is that it happens so often that in the last 5 years, Modern has probably only been healthy for 12 months total out of the whole time it's been around. This is perfectly illustrated by the fact that, in only 5 years, they've felt the need to do 7 Bans usually banning multiple cards. As opposed to 3 Bannings in Legacy over the same time frame. And in fairness, it's more like 2 since the late ban on Dig Through Time probably should have just been done with Treasure Cruise. The only other was Mental Misstep, and I didn't hear much complaint on that one. People knew it needed banned and the change didn't really change what decks were in the field. They just all lost MM at the same time and kept playing. * This is looking only at bans, not unbans. Unbans are almost always a good sign.
My response to your argument is...who cares? Who cares how many times they need to ban new magic cards to reign in problem decks like eldrazi? Why should you or anyone else care that it takes multiple bannings for our format and less for Legacy? That is no kind of proof that Legacy is healthier than modern, it just means that their card pool is less susceptible to being broken by newly created magic cards.
Your logic is fail. I feel like you are mad that they came after your pets decks and this type of complaining makes you feel better.
So, I haven't really lost much from "pet" decks. My point is simply that this format, since it was created, has been no-fun due to imbalance more often than it's been fun to play. The truth is, for all I would love to play Modern I just can't bring myself to buy in because there is a reasonable Legacy scene where I'm at, and the format is a lot more fun and interactive. A working Modern format would open that kind of experience to a lot more players, allowing more events, but almost inevitably, when there are Modern events in my area, there's no turnout because it's almost always "Play [Current Best Deck] or don't bother." While Modern is different than Legacy, the comparison is still relevant and important. Legacy has been the poster boy of what a healthy format should be for a long time.
Not only that, but as time rolls on the cards are going to get more and more expensive as sets get older and cards get harder to find. This is going to make bannings more painful as time goes on as financial costs are part of the reason people get distraught. What makes modern paradoxical is that the decks that have the most cross over cards are also the most expensive, so anyone with a cheaper modern deck (ie 500 or less in cost) is more likely to get burned to the ground by a ban.
We get it, you are hung up on the price of the game. I have been playing since the inception of the game and guess what, people have complained about the cost of the game for 21 years. The majority competitive players dont care about prices, they care about winning. The have learned the market and how to buy and sell so they dont get hit too hard. Until the cards stop selling at the prices they are, there will be nothing done about prices. All those on the money side of the equation are happy with the market.
In short, money doesnt matter in the big picture, maybe to you it does, but to most competitive players it doesnt. If you notice though, Wotc has banned cheaper cards out of decks instead of the most expensive. Leaving the value of the rest of the deck to be able to either move with the shell or trade off to move to something different.
I have slightly mixed feelings here. Mostly I agree with bocephus. WoTC has said that they're not going to make decisions on gameplay based at all on the secondary market. That said, shaking the secondary market too much is bad for players and shops, and that could definitely end up doing damage all the way back to WoTC. This is compounded when the impact is due to things like bans rather than natural shifts in the marketplace. Bans don't have the type of gradual change of a natural shift or the forewarning that comes with rotation. They're much more jarring to the marketplace, and even more so when they're as unpredictable as some of the recent modern bans. That gets compounded again when they're highly controversial. No one is really going to lose sleep over a banning from the Eldrazi Deck, and no one was surprised with the few Legacy bans. People pretty much knew they had to happen and could adjust to it. Pod and Twin were unexpected and jarring to the market though. If these things continue at the rate they're going, it could cause a severe loss of confidence in the collectible value of the game. That confidence has already been shaken fairly hard. If that confidence is lost, it could, in the worst case scenario, be the end of magic. However, the more likely scenario would be the death of a format.
The AF interview spilled all the beans in my opinion. They don't think anything they've done is wrong. They plan on banning Eldrazi with the next update, and for the last 5 years they see the format as working as intended. They need to be allowed to make new magic cards and if those cards break modern they will just ban the problem cards as soon as possible.
Honestly I don't think there is anything wrong with this approach. As AF said, it's been working just fine for 5 years, things like the eldrazi deck are going to happen from time to time. 3 months isnt a long time to wait for them to correct issues like this.
The only problem with that is that it happens so often that in the last 5 years, Modern has probably only been healthy for 12 months total out of the whole time it's been around. This is perfectly illustrated by the fact that, in only 5 years, they've felt the need to do 7 Bans usually banning multiple cards. As opposed to 3 Bannings in Legacy over the same time frame. And in fairness, it's more like 2 since the late ban on Dig Through Time probably should have just been done with Treasure Cruise. The only other was Mental Misstep, and I didn't hear much complaint on that one. People knew it needed banned and the change didn't really change what decks were in the field. They just all lost MM at the same time and kept playing. * This is looking only at bans, not unbans. Unbans are almost always a good sign.
Is it time to buy?
What do you think is the rock bottom price for Goyf?
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=433254
It's worth noting that Kaalia doesn't use the words "defending player", but the most likely reference to this would be that the creature she brings in would be attacking player 2 (the original defending opponent), based on rule 802.2a:
I could see the ruling taking a slightly different turn because of some ambiguity in the specific card rulings here:
The official ruling for Portal Mage is:
Combined with the ruling on Kaalia:
While Kaalia doesn't use the words "Defending Player", it's inconsistent wording where the intended meaning is clear. If there was an errata, it would probably make the ruling: you get the tapped creature, but it's not attacking anyone because the target became invalid. Personally, I think this would make more sense for game-state.
I can't see any interpretation of the rules that would have it attack player 3.
Because a final ruling requires clearing up the ambiguity in the card wordings and initial specific card rulings, it'll probably need review by someone who can adjust / write official clarification for the official rules to get a definitive answer. So, while my answer may not be perfect, it might be a bit before you get a really good answer. The rules appear to directly contradict each other here.
Standard Junk Rock
So, I figured I'd get the deck written out before PT gets too far, just in case I'm not the only one tinkering with it. I'm kinda surprised I don't see anyone doing anything even close. Testing has gone really well for me, but I haven't had much chance to hit up tournaments lately. So, All I can go on is my own testing vs copycat, g/w humans and u/w flash.
2 Fortified Village
2 Blooming Marsh
1 Hissing Quagmire
2 Concealed Courtyard
1 Shambling Vent
4 Aether Hub
2 Evolving Wilds
4 Forest
2 Plains
2 Swamp
Creatures (17)
4 Greenbelt Rampager
4 Glint-Sleeve Siphoner
4 Greenwheel Liberator
2 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
1 Renegade Rallier
2 Aetherstorm Roc
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
2 Ob Nixilis Reignited
1 Ajani Unyielding
Removal (8)
3 Fatal Push
2 Declaration in Stone
2 Anguished Unmaking
1 Deadlock Trap
Revolt & Mana-Fixing (8)
4 Renegade Map
4 Unbridled Growth
1 Fatal Push
2 Declaration in Stone
1 Anguished Unmaking
1 Appetite for the Unnatural
2 Renegade Rallier
1 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
1 Aetherstorm Roc
2 Kambal, Consul of Allocation
2 Fumigate
2 Archangel Avacyn
I think the only other comment to make is that when I look at it the manabase seems really greedy, but between Unbridled Growth, Renegade Map and Glint-Sleeve Siphoner, it's never had a problem finding lands, or even finding the right lands.
Also works with:
Aegis Automaton
Conviction + Sram, Senior Edificer
Decoction Module
All that said, my picks:
1. Spell Queller
2. Thalia's Lancers - Important Note, This tutors for all the good stuff: Giant Eldrazi, Flip Walkers, Linvala, Avacyn & Other Angels, Oaths, Goggles, or even just a Sword of the Animist
3. Bruna, the fading light - she revives a downed Avacyn or chains Lancers.
4. Eldritch Evolution
5. Galvanic Bombardment - On principle of most play, not splashiest effect.
6. Thalia, Heretic Cathar
7. Liliana, the Last Hope - Conditional (being able to kill x-1's will probably be important)
8. Oath of Liliana - 3 mana edict with an upside sounds great.
Honorable mentions:
Tamiyo, Field Researcher - I love the utility, but she needs the right deck and is really in a support role, not a feature role.
Grim Flayer - he looks great as a 2-drop, I'm just not sure how I feel about him overall.
Elder Deep-Fiend - He's great for tempo, but I don't like that, for what he costs, he isn't going to turn the game around if you're not already tempo-ing out.
Deploy the Gatewatch - I love this card and intend to play it, but I do like it better for modern where 5-color is easier and I can hit Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, Garruk, Apex Predator, and Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker
Heron's Grace Champion - This is a finisher.
1 Mortuary Mire
1 Sea Gate Wreckage
4 Caves of Koilos
4 Battlefield Forge
2 Shambling Vent
1 Needle Spires
2 Smoldering Marsh
2 Crumbling Vestige
3 Swamp
3 Plains
2 Mountain
Creatures (18)
4 Asylum Visitor
4 Matter Reshaper
2 Liliana, Heretical Healer
4 Thought-Knot Seer
1 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
2 Reality Smasher
1 Goblin Dark-Dwellers
2 Nahiri, the Harbinger
1 Sorin, Grim Nemesis
Spells (14)
2 Fiery Impulse
3 Fiery Temper
3 Declaration in Stone
1 Anguished Unmaking
2 Murderous Compulsion
2 Kolaghan's Command
1 Call the Bloodline
2 Anguished Unmaking
1 Declaration in Stone
1 Languish
1 Radiant Flames
2 Flaying Tendrils
3 Shamble Back
1 Kolaghan's Command
1 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
1 Reality Smasher
2 Goblin Dark-Dwellers
I think that's a solid starting point going into first week of standard after my pre-orders arrive. That said, there are a lot of other solid possibilities with SOI and tons of different potential strategies to follow. For early in the format I just like a stable deck with as much as I can get tried and true. I will also note, there are too many potential honorable mentions in that part of the color pie to even try to mention them all. There are a lot of different ways the deck could go with creatures and spell choices. Mardu Dragons seems like a really solid choice as well, but I played Dragons way too much before rotation and I just want something different for a bit.
I have the Duals, and do play Legacy. About half my ABUR Duals are from when I first started playing back in 1994. The reason I'm interested in getting into Modern is more for the reason Bocephus mentioned. There's only so much opportunity to play sanctioned Legacy, and just because I have those things doesn't mean they're readily accessible to a large playgroup around me. Me having them is only half the battle... A game of Magic requires more than 1 player. Also, I can't say I would necessarily want FoW or Wasteland in Modern. Just something that can fill the roles they play in legacy to keep the format in check.
Eternal Masters? Just to make the point that WoTC doesn't consider Legacy a lost cause like you do. If you think about it, that probably wouldn't even be a thing if Modern wasn't hurting so badly.
So, I haven't really lost much from "pet" decks. My point is simply that this format, since it was created, has been no-fun due to imbalance more often than it's been fun to play. The truth is, for all I would love to play Modern I just can't bring myself to buy in because there is a reasonable Legacy scene where I'm at, and the format is a lot more fun and interactive. A working Modern format would open that kind of experience to a lot more players, allowing more events, but almost inevitably, when there are Modern events in my area, there's no turnout because it's almost always "Play [Current Best Deck] or don't bother." While Modern is different than Legacy, the comparison is still relevant and important. Legacy has been the poster boy of what a healthy format should be for a long time.
I have slightly mixed feelings here. Mostly I agree with bocephus. WoTC has said that they're not going to make decisions on gameplay based at all on the secondary market. That said, shaking the secondary market too much is bad for players and shops, and that could definitely end up doing damage all the way back to WoTC. This is compounded when the impact is due to things like bans rather than natural shifts in the marketplace. Bans don't have the type of gradual change of a natural shift or the forewarning that comes with rotation. They're much more jarring to the marketplace, and even more so when they're as unpredictable as some of the recent modern bans. That gets compounded again when they're highly controversial. No one is really going to lose sleep over a banning from the Eldrazi Deck, and no one was surprised with the few Legacy bans. People pretty much knew they had to happen and could adjust to it. Pod and Twin were unexpected and jarring to the market though. If these things continue at the rate they're going, it could cause a severe loss of confidence in the collectible value of the game. That confidence has already been shaken fairly hard. If that confidence is lost, it could, in the worst case scenario, be the end of magic. However, the more likely scenario would be the death of a format.
The only problem with that is that it happens so often that in the last 5 years, Modern has probably only been healthy for 12 months total out of the whole time it's been around. This is perfectly illustrated by the fact that, in only 5 years, they've felt the need to do 7 Bans usually banning multiple cards. As opposed to 3 Bannings in Legacy over the same time frame. And in fairness, it's more like 2 since the late ban on Dig Through Time probably should have just been done with Treasure Cruise. The only other was Mental Misstep, and I didn't hear much complaint on that one. People knew it needed banned and the change didn't really change what decks were in the field. They just all lost MM at the same time and kept playing. * This is looking only at bans, not unbans. Unbans are almost always a good sign.