Quote from Galerion »I swear guys I think I will cry when the two black Commands are revealed.
Either because they are beyond terrible or because Wizards finally gave them some good cards for a change. I really hope it's the latter...
Silumgar's command
Choose two,
- Mill 5
- Mill 5
- Mill 5
- Mill 5
2
We already know Modern has identical variance as other formats per pro and SCG records. Or we know the best players overcome whatever variance there is, so it shouldn't affect gameplay. Either way, please stop repeating this myth unless you have new evidence to argue it.
EDIT: If you are arguing that Magic as a while is variable, I mostly agree. As long as we agree on format variance and its impact on games/matches.
9
2018 GP T8 metagame
1. Gx Tron: 8 (12.5%)
2. KCI: 7 (10.9%)
3. Jeskai Control: 5 (7.8%)
4. Burn: 4 (6.3%)
5. Humans: 4 (6.3%)
6. Bogles: 3 (4.7%)
7. Affinity: 3 (4.7%)
8. Abzan: 3 (4.7%)
9. RG Eldrazi: 3 (4.7%)
10. UW Control: 3 (4.7%)
2018 GP T8 Tiebreaker metagame
1. Gx Tron: 12 (13.8%)
2. KCI: 8 (9.2%)
3. UW Control: 6 (6.9%)
4. Jeskai Control: 5 (5.7%)
5. Affinity: 5 (5.7%)
6. Burn: 4 (4.6%)
7. Mardu Pyromancer: 4 (4.6%)
8. Humans: 4 (4.6%)
9. Bogles: 3 (3.4%)
10. Abzan: 3 (3.4%)
11. RG Eldrazi: 3 (3.4%)
Interestingly, only a few decks shift positions. Tron and KCI remain the undisputed champs. Burn, Affinity, Humans, Abzan, and Bogles all shuffle positions. Meanwhile, UW Control and Mardu Pyromancer make huge jumps from virtual T8 absences to 3rd and 7th respectively. Fascinatingly, the only deck that is different in the two datasets is Mardu Pyromancer. Everything else is the same.
This gives some sense of the accuracy and limitations of "true" T8s vs. the T8 picture when we extend to breakers. On the one hand, The T8 Tiebreaker and the "True" T8 sets have exactly the same decks (minus Mardu). The top decks don't even change positions, and many of the middle decks just shuffle around. In that regard, the data would be mostly accurate in describing the top-tier metagame. But the "true" T8 misses the legitimate power of UW Control and Mardu Pyromancer, two decks that are missing by breakers on completely insignificant margins. This is critical for players who are trying to measure deck performance, as it shows that GP T8s are probably underestimating the actual strength of these decks.
Mardu in particular needs more credit. Cody Graveville got 9th at GP Toronto with the deck. Leszek Luty got 11th at GP Prague. Both players missed T8 just on breakers. Also, both players got there with ZERO BYES. Add Gerry T's PT Final appearance with Mardu and I really think this deck needs more credit as a significant tiered player, as well as the hands-down best Thoughtseize deck we have.
Of course, MTGO data could muddle this entire picture. But with the paper GP data we have, it's an interesting picture.
3
This is not going to happen, Wizards has given no indication it will happen, and this suggestion has always been one of my favorite indicators that the format is healthy. Anytime people start suggesting these kinds of fundamental reshaping bans (e.g. ban fetches, ban all fast mana, ban all strong removal, etc.), I know that the format probably has no real issues and we are just struggling to find something meaningful to discuss.
Re: "Annoying decks" in Modern
This kind of topic is both an indicator that the format is fine and one of those subjective, largely meaningless discussion points that does little to help us understand the format. On the former count, it suggests to me that the author probably lacked for topics and just picked a grab-bag of various Modern decks that the internet buzzes about (plus some arbitrary inclusions like MERFOLK that further delegitimize the argument) and complained about them. Why? Because there's nothing real or better to complain about. On the latter count, this author is falling into the classic high school op-ed trap. "It's just my opinion" is not a shield from criticism. It does not elevate the article or the opinion above the empirical requirements of such statements. This is also a problem that various Twitch and Twitter streamers/personalities have, but that's a separate topic. Such pieces do not advance our understanding of Modern or our discussion of Modern policy. It doesn't help us contextualize the metagame or grasp how decks work. It's just some dude's/dudette's opinion on their personal theories with minimal effort made to a) justify those positions and b) explain to us why we should care and agree.
Re: Preordain and GSZ
I think we're all sold on SFM so I don't feel this needs to be justified anymore. Wake us up when someone is actively arguing against SFM. Preordain and GSZ are more interesting issues. I'd be curious to see more discussion in particular around GSZ, which was banned for a very specific reason. How do people think that initial GSZ ban rationale holds up today, and how do we think GSZ would impact diversity? Same goes for Preordain of course, but I think that's a less likely unban in that Wizards has yet to unban these kinds of generic tools and instead unbans flashier, more predictable pieces of technology. They have also never unbanned anything that could slot into a T4 rule violator/combo deck. Thoughts on this?
7
I agree that it's problematic, but I also acknowledge it's where Wizards comes from which is why I encourage us to keep looking at GP/PT T8s as the primary predictor of B&R decisions. MTGO is clearly the secondary predictor (and may even be the primary), but our knowledge of the true MTGO metagame is never going to align with Wizards' so it's tough to generate predictions based on that. Hopefully Wizards moves past this T8-centric notion of Modern. Until they do, however, we'll just keep acknowledging T8s as such an important barometer of format health in Wizards' eyes, and an important indicator of pending bans.
I totally agree with this. I enjoy Hoogland and h0ly as streamers and content creators. I watch their channels when they are up and I have the time. But both of them fall into a similar trap of deliberately leaning towards some strong, polarizing, controversial opinions in public. I don't know the extent to which these views are to generate views, create a certain persona, or just express personal beliefs. I do know that a Twitch soundbite does not qualify as real analysis. I also know that both users, particularly Hoogland, do not react well to challenges in their channels. This can lead to an echo chamber effect among their followers, which gets compounded when those users parrot the soundbite on Reddit and other platforms.
If we really want to assess true deck performance instead of generating memes, soundbites, and views, we need to go beyond the T8. The best way to do this is through T32 analysis coupled with standings and #s of Byes. This gives us the most accurate sense of true deck performance over the event. For instance, at GP Prague, there are only three players in the entire T16 who have 1 or 0 byes. These players are Haram (5th - Bant Spirits - 1 Bye), Seegelken (10th - UW Control - 1 Bye), and the super impressive Leszek (11th - Mardu - 0 Byes). Rather than talking about how a 0 Bye player got 39 points with Mardu at a 2k player GP, missing T8 on breakers alone, we see people talking about how Thoughtseize and midrange decks are bad. Same with the UW Control narrative. This kind of surface level analysis is lazy and does not describe true deck performance. It's unfortunate that Hoogland and h0ly, along with other Modern personalities, don't use their platforms to intentionally push back against this superficial, clippable analysis, which means players and posters have to do it themselves. Hopefully we can rise about that in this thread.
1
Yeah, I think at this point we all basically acknowledge that SFM's release is just around the corner and will likely coincide with the next big SFM reprinting. A February 2019 unban would be the likeliest, as I assume Wizards will maintain their promise to avoid pre-PT unbans/bans in fulfillment of Forsythe's commitment to no more shakeup B&R changes.
Honestly, I don't even think this is such a bad thing. If Wizards makes decisions to enhance Modern popularity and interest, I'm totally fine with that. Wizards needs to make money and I'm glad they are including Modern in their monetization methods. That bodes well for our format and assures we'll have more investment in years to come.
1
As I've said a few times now, T8s are very important for B&R decisions. They are much less important when we are assessing deck performance. The last few pages about UW have been primarily about its performance, hence why I want us to stop overemphasizing this meaningless technical detail that UW didn't T8 this event.
2
Again, stop emphasizing this silly narrative about UW not making T8. Is it literally and technically true? Sure. Is it meaningful for discussions of the deck's power? Absolutely not. The 10th place pilot solely missed on breakers and did so with a single Bye. That's an outstanding performance. The deck had excellent Day 2 to T16 and T32 conversion on top of that. If we are trying to have a meaningful and critical discussion of UW's performance, then we need to stop repeating this meaningless fact about the deck missing T8 on an arbitrary technicality.
I GUARANTEE that if UW had one copy in the T8, we'd see players complaining that it "only" had 1 copy. And if it had 6 copies, we'd see the same group complaining that this was a random GP anomaly (literally a line I saw multiple times after Madrid). The veiled and overt blue skepticism needs to stop.
1
Again, there is simply no good reason to frame a lliteral lack of T8 copies as a performance strike against the deck or even a negative finish. Tigo in 10th missed on breakers alone with only one Bye. That's spectacular. If we're trying to meaningfullly assess performance based on metrics that matter, this needs to effectively be treated as a T8 placement. I assume we're trying to assess the deck's actual performance, not just get a surface level capture. If so, treat that finish as actually better than some of the "true" T8 finishes off the backs of triple Byes.
1
I haven't seen a lot of the ridiculous "failed to convert" argument here, but I did see it on Reddit and it was mentioned on Hoogland's channel last night. I want to get ahead of this uncritical line before it starts. Importantly, although there are no UW Control decks in the T8, the 10th place pilot missed T8 on breakers alone. Moreover, he did this with only one Bye. It's still technically true that he didn't T8. But that is clearly a loaded observation that is secretly, or not so secretly, trying to imply something about UW Control's viability. Don't buy it and don't parrot it around. UW Control had a very strong GP and SCG peeformance, on the backs of repeated strong MTGO performances and a previous strong GP finish. It's the real deal.
4
If those complaints were describing actual Modern problems on a significant scale, that would be cause for concern. Thankfully, this is not the case. We see this both anecdotally and more scientifically. Anecdotally, I can say that as a regular MTGO player I see even polarized matchups decided by far more than just who draws their SB cards. This often boils down to small decisions that we forget because we're fixated on typical Modern memes like "T3 Karn kappa" or "GG mulled to 4 no Leyline F6." Decisions like when to mulligan and when to keep, what to hit with your one removal spell, what outs to play into, etc. make a huge difference. We also see this all the time at high-level games. Twitch chat tends to remember memes like T3 Karn into scoop phase, but then doesn't remember tight matchups like Spirits vs. Humans that might seem like aggro slugfests on paper but boil down to tight decisions over many turns.
Scientifically, we have strong reason to suggest this is not true because the top Modern players do as good in Modern as in Legacy, have the same MWP ceiling as in Legacy, and perform consistently in Modern across multiple events. If Modern was just a SB lottery high variance mess, we would see the best Modern players doing worse in Modern than low-variance formats like Standard, and we would see their Modern performance ceiling fall relative to their ceiling in other formats. We do not see this. So unless we think that top Modern players are just luckier than other Modern players, it seems much more likely that there is much more to stable Modern success than just random Burning Inquiry draws.
We've seen these Modern complaints for years, especially since Twin got banned. These complaints were absolutely true in 2016, which is why Wizards acted so decisively in the early 2017 B&R update. They have not been true since then.