You know what else demands an answer right away? Dark Confidant. Dark Confidant is every bit as powerful if not more powerful than Stonefore Mystic and doesn't even require you to build around, you almost literally just have to be playing black mana. Leaving Bob unanswered for more than a single turn is enough to allow that player to absolutely run away with the game. Not to mention Dark Confidant dodges more removal than Stoneforge Mystic by being black. I've played with both and they both feel like cheating but Dark Confidant seals up games every bit as fast as Stoneforge Mystic and yet he's legal.
Confidant is an excellent card, and is probably at the upper end of 2-drop power for the format. But he is definitely not as broken as Stoneforge, even within the context of the format as a whole. In order for Confidant to really be better than Stoneforge, he needs to live for 3 turns.
On the first turn, Stoneforge tutors up the artifact and replaces itself. Confidant gets a random card from your deck, which could be badly needed removal/creatures or it could be a redundant land. On the second turn, Stoneforge drops the artifact down at instant speed with no possibility of countermagic. Confidant draws a second card. Most players would value a Batterskull over a 2nd Confidant draw any day of the week. It is not until the third turn that Confidant really adds up and probably surpassed Stoneforge for value.
But even then, there is some life cost to that, which is relevant in a faster format. As to Confidant's color, this is really not an issue in a format where the premier removal spells are just better than Doom Blade. Only the most niche decks would choose Doom Blade over Terminate/Path to Exile/Go For the Throat/Smother/Lightning Bolt/Punishing Flames/Dismember/etc. So in that regard, Confidant is no more/less vulnerable than his buddy Mystic.
Both of them need to die, but an unanswered Mystic is guaranteed to wreak havoc the turn after she hits play. The same cannot be said of an unanswered Bob, who might swing the game, or he might just dig through a badly shuffled/unlucky library.
There are a lot of Modern staples that are fairly obvious investment choices. Shocklands, fetchlands, Goyf, and Confidant all come to mind. With the exception of the Zendikar fetches, a lot of these are also hilariously expensive. While they are good investments to make, due to their Legacy relevance and Modern staying power, some people might just lack the cash to make those kinds of commitments. For that crowd, here is a more budget-minded list of investments that you should make in Modern. All prices are taken from MTGInfo and represent an average price that you could expect to see the card at. All prices are also for single cards.
Buy these cards and you will have the core of many decks already built.
Removal
[card]Path to Exile[card]: $2.50 (Aggro's removal of choice) Lightning Bolt: $.50 (Best burn ever) Dismember: $4.00 (Control's Path to Exile) Maelstrom Pulse: $8.25 (Best Planeswalker killer/most versatile removal spell)
Countermagic Remand: $1.00 (Combo deck countermagic of choice) Spell Snare: $3.00 (Legacy is to Mental Misstep as Modern is to Spell Snare) Cryptic Command: $9.00 (Best counterspell in the format. If you are playing control and playing blue, you are using CC) Mana Leak: $.50 (A splashable classic) Rune Snag: $.75 (Almost always a superior Mana Leak, especially in control)
Disruption Thoughtseize: $19.00 (The upper end of the budget-constrained investor. The Lightning Bolt of discard) Inquisition of Kozilek: $3.00 (Poor-man's Thoughtseize or Thoughtseize 5-8)
Card Draw Ponder:$.50 (Modern's Brainstorm take 1) Preordain: $1.00 (Modern's Brainstorm take 2)
Creatures Bloodbraid Elf: $2.25 (Jund, Zoo, Ponza, RG Elves, etc.) Noble Hierarch: $9.00 (Get Midrange's 1 drop of choice while he's cheap!) Knight of the Reliquary: $8.50 (Probably the second pound for pound toughest creature after Goyf) Kitchen Finks: $2.75 (Probably the best way to ruin an aggro player's day on turn 3, unless that aggro player has Path to Exile) Grim Lavamancer: $5.00 (Between Zoo, Burn, Jund, and RDW, this guy has a lot of homes) Eternal Witness: $3.50 (A creature used in Legacy, Standard, and Extended can't be that bad...) Sakura Tribe Elder: $1.00 (Fog + Rampant Growth for 2 mana makes any deck that needs mana fast drool)
This is not a comprehensive list, but it is a good starting point for players looking to get into the format.
Where is the Blood Moon!? This card is hilariously unfair in Modern, because so many of the top tier decks, and lower tier decks for that matter, rely on fragile manabases. Zoo, Jund, Junk, Bant Midrange, Teachings, Living End, etc. all get stomped by an early Blood Moon or Magus of the Moon, and that is a play that an RG deck is capable of using. Turn 1 Birds/Elves into turn 2 Moon, especially on the play, is GG in game 1 almost 100% of the time against these decks, especially if it is followed by a stream of other land destroyers.
Maindecking board sweepers is also a must for a land destruction deck. Firespout is almost certainly maindeckable in this deck, especially because firespout with no green mana saves your Birds from death. 3 damage is also just enough to take out the earliest Zoo beaters except for Goyf (Nacatl, Loam Lion/Kird Ape, Lavamancer, Gaddock Teeg, Pridemage, etc.) This could be supplemented with both Bolts for spot removal and potentially Dismember for some of the bigger and scarier targets.
As to land destruction spells, it is a mistake to not use Stone Rain. On the play against an opponent, Rain feels like cheating, and it really sends the opponent into a bad place. It can be supplemented with the higher CMC land destruction spells, but you really need 4 to keep competitive. 4 Rains alongside 4 Fulminator Mage is a solid core of 3 CMC land destroyers. Cryoclasm is also probably maindeckable in the current metagame, with Jund the only "tier 1" deck immune to its effects. It is certainly a sideboard staple that gives control players fits.
Mental Misstep was, at best, had a 2-2 split between the main deck and sideboard, more often than not appeared in some number in decks' sideboards, and often enough was absent in deck lists entirely (from my own building/testing as well as discussing it with others).
Agreed entirely. Mental Misstep is a good addition to the format and it gives control a tool to use against aggro decks and decks rocking too much discard. RG Elves and Zoo are particularly happy to see this card go, as are the tier 2 strategies like Goblins, White Weenie, and Merfolk which rock the Aether Vials. This might push them ahead. While I do not mind an aggro format, as opposed to a combo or control format, it was an unnecessary neutering of the control archetype.
Ancestral Vision was a powerful control card, no doubt, and insane off of a Bloodbraid Elf cascade, but was slow as Hell before it supplemented your hand when suspended and was far from overpowered.
Also agree. Why on earth is this card banned? It is by no means broken, and only goes into certain strategies. Many of the decks that used it were also harmed by this round of bannings. Faeries lost Bitterblossom, UW Stoneforge lost...well, it lost Stoneforge, and U-based control decks lost their Jace. This added insult to injury in crippling a number of control strategies, and was generally not needed.
Beyond blue countering/bouncing/Jacing it, beyond black discarding it, beyond red burning it, beyond every color attacking into it, there are so many answers to Jace, the Mind Sculptor it's not even funny (which include very versatile and flexible answers such as Oblivion Ring, Beast Within, Pithing Needle, Phyrexian Revoker). It was only broken in Standard once all of the good answers to it rotated.
I generally agree with this statement, although not to the extent that you make it. Some of the answers you mention, Revoker and Beast Within, are just not competitive enough to deal with Jace. That said, Maelstrom Pulse, O-Ring, and Pithing Needle are all well-suited for Jace bashing. But Jace is not a problem on turn 4, when he cannot protect himself. He is a problem on turn 6, when the control player has 2 mana open for protection, and 5 counters on him to avoid burn. By that time, the board has already been stabilized and you do not need to worry about attackers to any great extent.
Jace was absurd in Standard and remains a powerhouse in Legacy. Modern will have some middlepoint of power between the two formats, but Jace was going to be a defining element of that balance. In all likelihood, he is probably ok, but the conservative approach that Wizards has taken is respectable. He MIGHT have been dominant to a greater degree than was ok. Because of that, he needed to go.
I'll maintain that Stoneforge Mystic was fair in Modern, where Spell Snare is the counter of choice and there's no Standstill-symmetry to break. It was powerful (probably the most powerful white card in the format), but fair in the context of all other colors.
The pro-Stoneforge camp is, pardon my harshness, just wrong (this is not a jab at anyone in particular, but rather a comment against the pro-stoneforge gang as a whole). Stoneforge is an absurd addition to the format, despite his supposed answerability. Yeah, any kill spell from Punishing Fires to Path to Exile nukes the guy, and yeah, Spell Snare and Mana Leak both stop him cold, but Stoneforge DEMANDS the answer right away. Not many other cards flatly demand an answer. She is profoundly unfair in a control deck, and obnoxiously unfun in a deck packing Aether Vial. Just because a card CAN be answered, does not mean it will always be answered or is fair to play. UW Vial Stoneforge is a horrifying deck that uses Vial to effectively eliminate the 1 turn window in which you have to kill Stoneforge. An EOT Stonefoge, after you have already tapped out to play your cards, is a game changer. The alternative is to just do nothing so long as the Vial has 2 counters on it, but of course this plan favors the control player. Overall, it is good that she is gone, and I hope she stays gone forever.
you haven't played a modern jund deck have you. BBE is the only spell that they run over 3cmc because they run dark confidant. The mana base is solid so you don't have to bolt yourself every turn. In my play testing and other who frequent this forum the match up is close to 50/50. Jund is also so much better than zoo against decks like 12post.
I have been testing Modern and Overextended since the formats were announced in the early summer. In my own testing, it has proven to be inferior to Zoo in most matchups. This was also true in Overextended tournaments, and in the translation between Overextended and Modern, Zoo/Jund don't lose anything. Zoo has performed consistently in Magic's Legacy, Extended, and Overextended history. Jund was dominant in Standard and in a bit of Extended, but nowhere near the degree that Zoo was rampaging.
The only thing that Jund has over Zoo is its Blightning, along with perhaps some Inquisition/Thoughtseize backup. This does improve some matchups, but it also is irrelevant against others. Everything else in Jund, including Confidant, Bolt, Fires, Goyf, etc. is also run in Zoo. But Zoo gets to use those guys alongside Path to Exile, Wild Nacatl, Gaddock Teeg, and a host of other cards that are dependent upon white. These cards are excluded from Jund (and if they are included, then you are effectively playing Dark Zoo instead of Jund).
I am also generally surprised by your perspective on this, because I know that in the Jund thread you wrote:
If you can't beat zoo then you might as well just not play this deck. Zoo WILL be the best/most played deck in the format if and when hypergenesis gets the ban hammer. Also hypergeneis is a terrible match up.
This leads me to believe that you agree Zoo is the superior deck (which I thought was a good point), so I am somewhat confused by your change in mind in this last post.
People need to look at the actual reason that Mystic got banned, instead of speculating about why. Of course, Wizards could be lying to us, but at that point, we have bigger problems than just talking about Mystic's banning. According to Tom in his recent article "Welcome to the Modern World,"...
We prefer to just ban this card rather than risk yet another format dominated by Stoneforge Mystic.
This is really what the Stoneforge ban boils down to. Wizards wanted to be conservative in its new format. Stoneforge decks absolutely dominated Standard, and that's why she got banned. Stoneforge decks are doing quite well in Legacy, but she remains unbanned there. Legacy players get to use FoW and Swords to keep her in check, and noninteractive combo decks just don't care about turn 3 Batterskulls that swing on turn 4. But in a Modern metagame with slower combo decks, more aggro decks, and a lack of FoW and Swords, she is a little bit too powerful. Would she be broken and warp the metagame? Maybe. Maybe not. Wizards did not want to risk it, so they banned her. Given the preexisting evidence, I am fine with that, and you all should be too.
ktkenshinx: Nice, thorough post, but I think you missed Jund. It looks to be one of the most powerful decks in the format now. And are you sure Teachings isn't too slow?
Jund Verdict
Jund is one of those decks that I am just not sure about. It is most readily compared to Zoo, but Zoo has a lot more going for it than does Jund. Zoo is about 2 turns faster than Jund, so it wins out in the aggro contest. While Jund has a lot more control elements, including the brutal Blightning, the deck just lacks board presence in the early turns. Most of Jund's creatures are CMC 3+, with Putrid Leech being the main exception. Pound for pound, Zoo's creatures can roll with Jund's any day of the week and come out on top. Zoo's dudes are just a lot bigger, and hit a lot earlier. If you can deal with Zoo beaters, then you can definitely deal with Jund ones.
To make matters worse, a lot of Zoo's scariest creatures (Knight, Goyf, Nacatl) are immune to the gimicky Fires/Grove engines that most Jund decks rely on against fast aggro. Knight and Goyf are also immune to Bolt in most cases. This leaves Jundo players to rely on sorcery speed Maelstrom Pulse and Terminate (which not all Jund decks use). Sadly, Zoo runs way too many threats for Jund to answer on a 1 to 1 basis, and Jund is often starting a few turns behind because of a lack of scary 1 and 2 drops (which Zoo has in abundance). If you can deal with the removal that Zoo is packing, then you can also deal with the lighter removal of Jund.
Jund is a good deck, don't get me wrong. But it is not exactly a gauntlet deck. If you can beat Zoo, you can probably beat Jund. If you can beat Jund, there is no guarantee that you can beat Zoo. The sole exception to this is the devastating Blightning that Jund runs. This is the one thing, in my opinion, that makes Jund a serious format contender. But as a whole, against many decks, it would be better to run Zoo than to run Jund. Because of that, while the deck might be good, it is not gauntlet material; Jund is often asubpar Zoo, especially when compared to Zoo decks running Confidant and Ranger and Bloodbraid Elf.
Teachings Verdict
Teachings is going to lose a lot of game 1s to Zoo and RG Ponza style decks. But it is going to win a lot of game 1s against all the midrange decks in the format, which are still very much alive even without Stoneforge and Jace. Teachings also abuses the heck out of combo players. In a metagame with more midrange and combo, Teachings is going to thrive. If the metagame shifts to Goblins, Burn, Zoo, and RG Elves, Teachings is going to be hardpressed to stay on top of board control.
But in this new metagame, no one really knows what is going to be on top, so Teachings is a pretty safe choice. It's certainly the best strict control choice you can roll with, and its games 2 and 3 are not unwinnable against even the fastest aggro. So while I agree that Teachings is going to take a trouncing in game 1 against some of the faster decks, it will make up for this weakness with the sideboard, and with its superior matchups against midrange and combo.
Overall, the banlist is a step in the right direction. Wizards wants to be conservative with their new format, because with all this investment in Modern they just cannot afford to have a degenerate or dominate deck in the PT season. The banlist reflects this conservatism, and I can respect that.
A few notes about specific cards:
Stoneforge Mystic: JUSTIFIED BAN
When Stoneforge hits play, you have your second (or third) turn to deal with it. No one is going to argue, at least not reasonable, that Stoneforge as a tutor is particularly powerful (Steelshaper's Gift was never played outside of block in any format). But Stoneforge as a card advantage, tempo advantage beast is way better than Gift can ever hope to be. It's basically a card that you answer right away or lose to. Aether Vial makes it way worse. Normally, you know that you have to kill the Stoneforge, so you get your full turn to do so. An EOT Vial dropped Stoneforge, however, can capitalize on a tapped out player and make the card completely unfair. This makes her even harder to answer, and makes her ability even more game-swinging.
The other reason Stoneforge needed to go was because she was going to cripple deck diversity. Every midrange deck needed Stoneforge. Every aggro deck playing white needed Stoneforge, and if you weren't playing white, you probably should be for the random "I win" factor of the Mystic. It is healthier for the metagame that she is gone, and I commend Wizards on its decision.
Jace: JUSTIFIED BAN
I don't think anyone liked Jace in Standard (Except the kids who owned a foil Japanese playset), and that was one of the best bans in recent memory. Some people might claim that Modern has more jace answers than did Standard, and because of that, he is safer. But really, what are those answers? The only card that helps against Jace in Modern, one absent from Standard, is Maelstrom Pulse. Nothing else targets permanents in the same way. The Jace player, however, gets dozens of new toys and tools to protect his walker: Cryptic Command, Spell Snare, Rune Snag, Condescend, etc. This makes Jace substantially more nutty, and warps the format towards blue control and midrange decks that can run him. Good riddance to the walker.
Mental Misstep: BAD BAN
When I first saw Vial unbanned earlier this year, when the Community Cup was announced, I thought that this was because MM was meant to keep it in check. Whoops. Guess not. Having Vial in a format where MM is absent is a dumb idea, as it gives aggro decks a huge boost on control. It also gives Merfolk a nice leg up on the format; from its Legacy version, the deck only loses MM, FoW, Daze, and Wasteland. You might think that FoW and Wasteland alone are crippling, but in a metagame that is a full 2 turns slower, the loss will barely be noticed.
I understand why Wizards banned the card. Legacy is completely dominated by one drops, and MM is a legacy-targeted card that shifts the format away from the omnipresent one drops (Dark Ritual, Goblin Lackey, Swords to Plowshares, Brainstorm, etc.). But those last 4 cards are probably the most powerful 1 drops in Legacy, none of which are actually legal in Modern. With the exception of Vial, there is no game changing 1 drop that Modern can muster. Also, with Glimpse of Nature banned, MM isn't as urgently needed.
But all of that said, MM is a good card that helps certain matchups. Control players will sorely miss it against aggro, and combo players will miss it against midrange discard strategies. Hopefully this card comes off the list one day.
Slipknot72102's revision to the gauntlet is not a bad one. A lot of the decks that were once considered Tier 1 are hopelessly banhammered, which makes for a totally different metagame. That said, the OP is a bit too simplified, and does not account for the format nuances that still exist. Because of this, I want everyone who is serious about this format to consider the following decks as part of a better gauntlet for testing. Remember that a "gauntlet" does not necessarily mean a Tier 1 list. There can be some strategies that you absolutely need to beat that are not necessarily tier 1, strategies that will definitely show up in tournaments that you do not want to be unprepared for. With that in mind, here is a more comprehensive list (given in no particular order):
1. Zoo
The premier aggro deck in the format. It loses nothing from the bannings, and has some of its worse matchups eliminated. With Stoneforge Mystic removed, it is unlikely that Zoo will run Bloodbraid Elf to gain absurd card advantage from the Mystic. Dark Zoo, with Dark Confidant splashed, will assuredly be in the vogue, but so will traditional RGW Zoo builds splashing perhaps for Dismember. Expect to see lots of Zoo at all tiers of tournaments.
To beat Zoo, expect to board in non-damage based removal. Damnationand Wrath of God are all stars here. Lifegain is also excellent, with Kitchen Finksat the top of the class, able to trade with Nacatl, Teeg, Ethersworn, Lion, Ape, Pridemage, etc. Blood Moon is also devastating against Zoo, as is Chalice of the Void set to 1 (Nacatl, Path, Bolt, Lavamancer, Loam Lion, Kird Ape all get excluded from the fight).
2. Dragonstorm
This is the turn 4 combo deck that Wizards' mercifully left untouched. Thinking that Ethersworn Canonist and Gaddock Teeg alone will stop DStorm is a bad idea, given that DStorm can easily maindeck 4 Magma Jets to improve its Zoo game, and give it more versatility against other matchups. Turn 4 is nothing to sneeze at, as DStorm is quite capable of running 4 Magma Jet and anywhere between 4-6 Remand/Mana Leak/Spell Pierce as protection. In the sideboard it can easily roll with Wipe Away to deal with other threats, as well as Gigadrowse to clamp down the control matchup. This is going to be the scariest combo deck in the format for a while, because it is by far the next most resilient thing after Combo Elves.
To beat Dragonstorm, pack countermagic and disruption. This will not come as a surprise to most, but remember that Dragonstorm runs both Gigadrowse and countermagic of its own. To get around this, consider creative solutions like Silence and Mindbreak Trap. A sleeper sideboard solution, especially for aggro, is any card that kills artifacts. Losing a Lotus Bloom on the turn 4 upkeep is a huge tempo blowout for Dragonstorm, and it can cost them the game right there if they are on a clock. Qasali Pridemage and Krosan Grip are all stars in this role.
Avoid cards like Leyline of Sanctity and Gaddock Teeg for stopping DStorm. The deck runs bounce, removal, and ample ways of finding it.
3. Twelvepost
Scapeshift Valakut was the premier land-based deck, able to pack in more countermagic and a more robust kill package than Twelvepost could fit in its 60 cards. But with Scapeshift gone, Twelvepost becomes even better. Like Dragonstorm Combo, Twelvepost has a fair number of extra slots for countermagic and removal. This makes the deck resilient and capable of dealing with a wide range of threats. It can easily switch from combo (Emrakul on turn 5) to Aggro (Wurmcoil Engine) to control (Condescend and Spell Burst lockdown) over the course of a single game. Its land-focused game plan makes it a lot harder to preboard against, forcing you to commit to some cards that might be useless in other matchups. It also makes a lot of the standard anti-combo cards pretty useless; Thoughtseize won't hit the twelve posts, and countermagic won't get rid of Emrakul.
The best way to stop Twelvepost is, well, to kill or neutralize the posts. Magus of the Moon and Blood Moon excel in this role, and a lot of decks are capable of boarding them in if they carefully construct their manabase to begin with. Basic land destruction like Stone Rain and Rain of Tears and even the techy Sowing Salt are also options in the right decks.
4. Mystical Teachings
It doesn't take a genius to figure out why this deck is going to be at the top. As a control deck, it doesn't lose anything necessary from the bannings. The loss of Visions hurts some builds of the deck, but all in all the archetype survives 100% intact. The main reason that Teachings is good is its versatility. Teachings acts as a tutor for immediate removal and countermagic (Slaughter Pact and Pact of Negation), graveyard hate, life gain, bounce, etc. This gives Teachings a theoretically decent matchup against the entire field.
To beat Teachings, you need to be able to run threats that Teachings can't deal with using instants. Troll Ascetic and Thrun, the Last Troll are awesome in this role; Thrun is particularly good because he can neither be countered nor killed via Consume the Meek.
A more brutal and direct way of crushing Teachings is the old RG Ponza/Gruul deck plan. Turn 1 Birds followed by a never ending run of Stone Rain, Cryoclasm, Plow Under, and other obnoxious land denial cards.
5. All In Red/RDW
3 of the previous 4 decks have one thing in common; they are heavily reliant on a nonbasic landbase. This makes a deck that maindecks a turn 1 Blood Moon extremely powerful in the metagame. Heck, 2 of those three decks (Teachings and Twelvepost) don't even use Red mana at all! When you combine that with the ability to power out Chalice at 1 or 2 or a turn 1 Deus of Calamity, you have a deck that really capitalizes on the metagame. Deus mauls Twelvepost and DStorm, Blood Moon wrecks Zoo/Teachings/Twelvepost, and Chalice has uses against all of them. While All In Red has some really terrible matchups against other decks, it has a really excellent match percentage versus the rest of the gauntlet. This alone, combined with its unique style of gameplay, makes the deck quite powerful.
To beat AIR/RDW, you need to know what aspect of your deck that the AIR player will target. If you have lots of nonbasics, then you need some easily-cast enchantment removal. Nature's Claim is excellent in this role, and Krosan Grip is even better against the Chalice toting AIR player. If those aren't in your colors, consider Repeal as a low investment replacement. If the turn 1 Deus is more of an issue, pack 1 mana removal like Condemn or Path to Exile.
Remember that some of these decks are not necessarily Tier 1. But going up against a modern tournament without the ability to beat these badboy decks is a losing proposition. So in the immortal words of Scar, "Be Prepared".
By the time you can cast Chalice for 1 in Modern, your opponent has already cast their 1 cost spell that you didn't want to see resolve. The big reason Chalice is good in a format like Legacy is because you can run eight total 2-mana lands (4x Ancient Tomb and 4x City of Traitors) as well as Mox Diamond AND Chrome Mox to make sure you drop Chalice for 1 on turn 1. All that fast mana isn't available in Modern to power out Chalice when you need it the most. Of course Mental Misstep shook things up a lot after it got printed, but I'm talking mainly about before MM saw print.
Completely untrue, especially against the three decks that one drops are most important in. Zoo (Nacatl, Bolt, Path, Ape/Lion), UB Control (Thoughtseize, Ponder, Inquisition, Spell Snare, Spell Pierce), and most importantly, Combo Elves (Glimpse, Heritage Druid, Nettle Sentinel). This last deck in particular bears mention, because it is a huge combo powerhouse that is far more resilient than HG. It is also a lot slower against a Chalice. Worst case scenario is you cast it on the draw, after your opponent has maybe dropped Nettle Sentinel and Elvish Visionaries. But even then, you stop the scariest parts of the combo engine cold, and you force them to use GSZ to dig for Qasali. On the draw, it's even better, giving them only 1 turn to cast their one drops. The same goes for Zoo and UB Control, which rely on those one drops throughout the game. The card is quite strong in this format, and it was quite strong in the old extended that contained it.
Also, banning GGT does not at all stop Dredge. The closest analog to a full deck murder was the banning of Dread Return, Bridge from Below, and Narcomoeba in Overextended; those bannings ACTUALLY killed the deck. Wizards' response to Dredge was to slow it down a bit, and in the months to come, I would be that manifests as a Bridge from Below ban, because that is the card that most makes Dredge feel like it is cheating. Dredge is also decently resilient to most hate, because it can run any countermeasures it wants (Mental Misstep, Thoughtseize, Ancient Grudge, Chain of Vapor, etc.). HG is a lot more limited, and while it does have some good options, all of them are strictly worse than the alternatives that most combo decks could run. The inherent restrictions of the combo limit the deck's reactivity.
And as to CawBlade, all of that nonsense about "Decks that can beat cawblade" is just that, nonsense. Check out the T8s from tournaments during the cawblade era. It was like Affinity 2004, but worse. HG never ever came close in the old extended, and there is no real evidence to suggest it will now.
The problem is not every color has answers to hate out HG. The hate cards for the deck are about 8-10 cards. Yes there are some artifacts that can hate the deck but forcing you to mully to get answers in your opening hand is bad. As for the New editions being fatties, sure but when they counter your opponents first hate card or give added mana to combo off, those cards are very good additions to the deck.
You are pulling up results from high end tournaments, thats fine. smaller more localized events were dominated by HG in my area. You either played HG, Dredge, or DDT. It was a terrible format that many disliked.
There are some worrisome bits of argument that this post represents. These sorts or arguments have been bouncing around the thread for a while now. The first is in regards to the type of hate that counters HG. Some people think that in order to board against HG, or maindeck the hate, you either have to play certain colors, or you have to rely on mulliganing to certain artifacts. This isn't quite how metagames work, a fact that fnord was keen to point out.
In a metagame, certain decks have better matchups against other decks. The UB/UBW/UWG decks will have the best HG matchup in the format, with tons of maindeck hate (Thoughtseize, Inquisition, Spell Pierce, Mana Leak, Remand, etc.) and the capability to board in other cards like Ethersworn Canonist, Chalice of the Void, Rule of Law, etc. Other decks, like Combo Elves, will be able to capitalize off of an HG and potentially win on their turn (barring an EOT Outburst). These decks make HG less dominant as a whole, and make players less likely to pilot the deck. It also shifts the format towards Blood Moon and Magus of the Moon based decks, as well as those which can maindeck Chalice. Thus, a metagame with HG should naturally shift towards decks which have better HG matchups. This is true of almost any powerful combo deck, Combo Elves included.
As to the historical performance of HG, the evidence is quite clear that HG has NOT done well in the past. Local events and personal experiences are not to be discounted, but bannings are not based on these anecdotal situations. They are important, absolutely, but they are not going to inform DCI banning decisions. Because the rest of the Modern metagame is going to be quite similar to the old Extended metagame, not much is going to change. It is extremely clear that old extended had no absurd HG dominance, and there is really nothing to say on this matter.
Now, I have heard an argument that Dark Depths based decks kept HG in check. In part, this is true. The combination of fast clock and lots of permission/disruption makes for a brutal HG opponent. But a deck with a slightly slower clock and a slightly more robust control base (Modern Stoneforge control decks) will be just as well suited for stopping HG. Remember, HG was once kept in check in the WHOLE FORMAT by one deck: Dark Depths. If a new deck can also keep it in check, we can expect a similar situation. HG will be powerful, but it will just be one more excellent combo deck in a sea of combo decks.
Not sure which thread its in, but I did mention if they do something to hyper the next boogyman will be combo elves. The difference between the 2 decks is even with god hands, HG goes off turn 1, elves turn 3 or better. I have really no problem with combo that has to take a few turns to set up. Storm variants, elves, and dredge all need a few turns to go off. (dredge especially with what they lose from the Legacy decks, dont understnd the over kill) DD even needed 2 turns to get Merit out and a 3rd to swing. That gives you time! HG just doesnt give you that time.
Comparing god hands in combo decks is silly. By that metric, I would play some Belcher or Storm variant every time if we could look at god hand's alone, and Vintage/Legacy would be dominated by meandeck tendrils and Spanish Inquisition builds. Thankfully, god hands do not make a combo deck. Average hands do in average game situations. On average, HG is not terribly resilient. it is blisteringly fast, but if you can disrupt it early, then you are in good shape for the remainder of the game. Combo Elves is more resilient than Jon McClane. It can switch game plans and fight through virtually all hatred unless it is really dedicated. In the average game, combo elves is going to have a hand up over the metagame any day of the week.
HG's god hand is absolutely, without a doubt, the best god hand that a Modern combo deck can hope for. Heck, with Gemstone Cavern and Simian Spirit Guide you can theoretically get a turn 0 (opponent's upkeep) Violent Outburst into an Emrakul and Sakashima! Even the less silly god hands are still turn 1 or turn 2 wins. But HG does not always get those hands, and goldfishing the deck in a vacuum does not imply its overall success.
So far, the only evidence that has been presented for HGs banning is its testing results in certain player's testing gauntlets, and a counterfactual historical argument, that dark depths kept the deck in check in the old days. This is not persuasive, and more evidence is needed.
Also, I am not personally insulting anyone for their opinions or their ways of looking at this situation. If I come off as aggressive or offensive, then I apologize.
There's an important difference between HG and Dredge. Dredge can fight the hate with cards like Echoing Truth and Thoughtseize. HG's anti-hate options are much more limited due to not being able to play anything with CMC 0, 1, or 2.
For the most part, I definitely agree with you. But as far as permanent answers to HG go, HG is quite well equipped to deal with them. Wispamre, Ingot Chewer, Krosan Grip, and Dismember all offer HG versatile options for dealing with permanents. In that respect, HG is just as capable as Dredge in dealing with the permanent threats like Ethersworn Canonist, Chalice of the Void, Rule of Law, etc.
But I definitely agree with you in regards to HG's ability to fight reactive spells. Discard and countermagic (countermagic especially) are basically unanswerable by HG, short of their turn 0 Chancellor of the Annex. So in THAT respect, HG is definitely more vulnerable to the usual anti-combo cards than is Dredge. I am not sure if that was your intent, but if it is, then I agree that HG is in some senses more vulnerable to hatred than is Dredge. It is admittedly more outrageously explosive, but over the course of many games, players should find it more vulnerable.
I understand where you are coming from, I use to think like you too. But having hyper in the format speeds up the format where you almost have to mully until you have one of the answers in your hand from the beginning, and that doesnt guarantee you can use it. You shouldnt have to run a specific color in order to play the game to be competitive.
I agree that it is sometimes frustrating to have to mulligan to find your answers against a combo deck. This is especially frustrating when that combo deck can win on turn 2 or 3 if you don't have those answers. But such non-interactive combo decks are a part of Magic, and they have been for years. Hypergenesis is not the only nutty strategy that Modern brings to bear, a strategy that requires mulling to your answers or facing defeat. Dredge is similar, and it has always been. No GY hate early? Better scoop. I don't want to hear from anyone the whole "but you can counter Dredge engines and acceleration!" You can also counter Hypergenesis cascade engines, and HG/Dredge run roughly the same number of engines.
Another aspect of this debate that worries me is the lack of hate towards Glimpse of Nature. If players were calling for the banning of BOTH HG and Glimpse, I would say "Alright, they have tested the format and hate non-interactive combo decks". But no one is doing that to my knowledge. This leads me to believe that some critics of HG have not seriously tested the format, and are just bandwagoning on the obvious combo candidate. Glimpse is scarier.
Glimpse of Nature is a far more terrifying combo engine than HG. It can combo out on either turn 3 or turn 4, which makes it basically one turn slower than HG. Unlike HG, it's not enough to hold a Spell Pierce in reserve, or to drop a Chalice at 0 out there and build up your defenses. Combo Elves is an infuriatingly resilient deck, and its ability to switch from combo to aggro and back again in the course of a turn makes it a serious force in the metagame. It's not as flashy as HG, and it's not as obvious a threat. Heck, the deck is a lot harder to play, which might account for the lack of hate towards it. But overall, Combo Elves is a REAL format boogieman.
I mean seriously: people are complaining about packing answers to HG that are only good in the HG matchup. But you are all ignoring one of the historical answers to combo elves, a card that found its way into sideboards everywhere during the combo elves reign: Engineered Plague. There are few more narrow answers than that.
There is an important distinction between a testing gauntlet and a tier list. A testing gauntlet just shows the decks that you have to be able to beat in order to be competitive. A tier list ranks decks relative to others in the format. In this case, the two should not necessarily overlap; all the tier 1 decks may not need to be on the gauntlet, if they are similar enough to one another. Similarly, a tier 1.5 or 2 deck that is quite popular should be on the gauntlet, because you are likely to encounter it.
So with that in mind, I argue that the modern gauntlet should consist of the following (in no particular order).
1. Twelvepost: The deck has a few things going for it. It is very cheap to build (especially the superior mono blue version), very explosive, and capable of playing either "combo" or hard control. This versatility makes it a huge contender, and you need to be able to deal with the unique Twelvepost gameplan or you are sure to lose at least 2-3 matches in a 9 round tournament.
2. Combo Elves: Hands down the most resilient combo deck in the format. There is no extant combo build that can so seamlessly switch from aggro to combo and back again, depending on the game state. With hugely redundant threats, excellent resiliency to traditional combo stoppers (countermagic/discard), an unfair topdeck mode, and a reputation for success from previous PTQ seasons, this deck will be everywhere. The only thing that will hold it back a little is its above-average-complexity decision trees.
3. Zoo: Best aggro deck in the format. Zoo is capable of playing all sorts of aggro games, whether a blisteringly fast one with turn 1 Nacatl, turn 2 Goyf, turn 3 Knight, or a more midrange one with removal and card advantage (Stoneforge/Confidant/Bloodbraid) to back it up. What makes Zoo so good is that it runs so many darn threats. Every creature is picked for its economy and power, which makes Zoo a brutal aggro deck. Like Combo Elves, Zoo has an excellent reputation for success. Zoo's pre Mental Misstep success in Legacy (the deck is still decent, just not as strong) also will contribute to its prevalence, as Legacy players import their decks into Modern.
4. Stoneforge Midrange (UWB/G): There are other midrange decks in Modern that might contend with this slot (BW Discard, Junk, Jund, etc.). None of them are quite as elegant as the UWG or UWB versions of this deck. UWG gets you Goyf, Noble Hierarch, and Knight of the Reliquary. UWB gets you Confidant, Go For The Throat, and Thoughtseize. Both versions get to keep Stoneforge, and then it's just a matter of filling in the rest of your slots with good cards like Vendillion Clique, Spellstutter Sprite, Jace, etc. This sheer volume of excellent cards makes this midrange version just better than others.
5. Burn: Burn is not tier 1. RDW is not tier 1. But as we know from tournament experience, tier 2 decks can absolutely win tournaments. Burn is in that category because when you don't prepare for Burn, it wrecks you. If your deck is too slow or too suicidal to deal with Turn 1 Goblin Guide (18 life), turn 2 Lava Spike/Rift Bolt (10 life), turn 3 Keldon Marauders/Lightning Bolt (4 life), then you need to rethink it. Heck, those life totals assumed that you never cracked a fetch or untapped a shockland. That sort of speed needs to be respected, especially because Burn/RDW is extremely consistent and requires only 2-3 lands to function optimally. Magus of the Moon/Blood Moon/Chalice of the Void all provide game 2 and 3 tech against troublesome strategies, making the deck even more powerful.
There are a ton of other decks that we could name that I do not think fall on a BRIEF gauntlet list. After all, I assume that this thread does indeed try to propose a BRIEF gauntlet, not a completely comprehensive one. If you want to be thorough, then you should also test against:
Dragonstorm
Scapeshift
Living End
UB Faeries
RG Elves
Goblins
Merfolk
Dredge
Tempered Steel
Enduring Ideal
Gifts Rock
Ascension Combo
RUG Twin
Stoneblade
All In Red
5 Color Control
Mystical Teachings
Protean Hulk
Doran Rock
And a bunch of other decks that I have definitely forgotten. But those other 5 decks should comprise the core of any testing gauntlet.
Confidant is an excellent card, and is probably at the upper end of 2-drop power for the format. But he is definitely not as broken as Stoneforge, even within the context of the format as a whole. In order for Confidant to really be better than Stoneforge, he needs to live for 3 turns.
On the first turn, Stoneforge tutors up the artifact and replaces itself. Confidant gets a random card from your deck, which could be badly needed removal/creatures or it could be a redundant land. On the second turn, Stoneforge drops the artifact down at instant speed with no possibility of countermagic. Confidant draws a second card. Most players would value a Batterskull over a 2nd Confidant draw any day of the week. It is not until the third turn that Confidant really adds up and probably surpassed Stoneforge for value.
But even then, there is some life cost to that, which is relevant in a faster format. As to Confidant's color, this is really not an issue in a format where the premier removal spells are just better than Doom Blade. Only the most niche decks would choose Doom Blade over Terminate/Path to Exile/Go For the Throat/Smother/Lightning Bolt/Punishing Flames/Dismember/etc. So in that regard, Confidant is no more/less vulnerable than his buddy Mystic.
Both of them need to die, but an unanswered Mystic is guaranteed to wreak havoc the turn after she hits play. The same cannot be said of an unanswered Bob, who might swing the game, or he might just dig through a badly shuffled/unlucky library.
-ktkenshinx-
Buy these cards and you will have the core of many decks already built.
Removal
[card]Path to Exile[card]: $2.50 (Aggro's removal of choice)
Lightning Bolt: $.50 (Best burn ever)
Dismember: $4.00 (Control's Path to Exile)
Maelstrom Pulse: $8.25 (Best Planeswalker killer/most versatile removal spell)
Countermagic
Remand: $1.00 (Combo deck countermagic of choice)
Spell Snare: $3.00 (Legacy is to Mental Misstep as Modern is to Spell Snare)
Cryptic Command: $9.00 (Best counterspell in the format. If you are playing control and playing blue, you are using CC)
Mana Leak: $.50 (A splashable classic)
Rune Snag: $.75 (Almost always a superior Mana Leak, especially in control)
Disruption
Thoughtseize: $19.00 (The upper end of the budget-constrained investor. The Lightning Bolt of discard)
Inquisition of Kozilek: $3.00 (Poor-man's Thoughtseize or Thoughtseize 5-8)
Card Draw
Ponder:$.50 (Modern's Brainstorm take 1)
Preordain: $1.00 (Modern's Brainstorm take 2)
Creatures
Bloodbraid Elf: $2.25 (Jund, Zoo, Ponza, RG Elves, etc.)
Noble Hierarch: $9.00 (Get Midrange's 1 drop of choice while he's cheap!)
Knight of the Reliquary: $8.50 (Probably the second pound for pound toughest creature after Goyf)
Kitchen Finks: $2.75 (Probably the best way to ruin an aggro player's day on turn 3, unless that aggro player has Path to Exile)
Grim Lavamancer: $5.00 (Between Zoo, Burn, Jund, and RDW, this guy has a lot of homes)
Eternal Witness: $3.50 (A creature used in Legacy, Standard, and Extended can't be that bad...)
Sakura Tribe Elder: $1.00 (Fog + Rampant Growth for 2 mana makes any deck that needs mana fast drool)
This is not a comprehensive list, but it is a good starting point for players looking to get into the format.
-ktkenshinx-
Maindecking board sweepers is also a must for a land destruction deck. Firespout is almost certainly maindeckable in this deck, especially because firespout with no green mana saves your Birds from death. 3 damage is also just enough to take out the earliest Zoo beaters except for Goyf (Nacatl, Loam Lion/Kird Ape, Lavamancer, Gaddock Teeg, Pridemage, etc.) This could be supplemented with both Bolts for spot removal and potentially Dismember for some of the bigger and scarier targets.
As to land destruction spells, it is a mistake to not use Stone Rain. On the play against an opponent, Rain feels like cheating, and it really sends the opponent into a bad place. It can be supplemented with the higher CMC land destruction spells, but you really need 4 to keep competitive. 4 Rains alongside 4 Fulminator Mage is a solid core of 3 CMC land destroyers. Cryoclasm is also probably maindeckable in the current metagame, with Jund the only "tier 1" deck immune to its effects. It is certainly a sideboard staple that gives control players fits.
-ktkenshinx-
Agreed entirely. Mental Misstep is a good addition to the format and it gives control a tool to use against aggro decks and decks rocking too much discard. RG Elves and Zoo are particularly happy to see this card go, as are the tier 2 strategies like Goblins, White Weenie, and Merfolk which rock the Aether Vials. This might push them ahead. While I do not mind an aggro format, as opposed to a combo or control format, it was an unnecessary neutering of the control archetype.
Also agree. Why on earth is this card banned? It is by no means broken, and only goes into certain strategies. Many of the decks that used it were also harmed by this round of bannings. Faeries lost Bitterblossom, UW Stoneforge lost...well, it lost Stoneforge, and U-based control decks lost their Jace. This added insult to injury in crippling a number of control strategies, and was generally not needed.
I generally agree with this statement, although not to the extent that you make it. Some of the answers you mention, Revoker and Beast Within, are just not competitive enough to deal with Jace. That said, Maelstrom Pulse, O-Ring, and Pithing Needle are all well-suited for Jace bashing. But Jace is not a problem on turn 4, when he cannot protect himself. He is a problem on turn 6, when the control player has 2 mana open for protection, and 5 counters on him to avoid burn. By that time, the board has already been stabilized and you do not need to worry about attackers to any great extent.
Jace was absurd in Standard and remains a powerhouse in Legacy. Modern will have some middlepoint of power between the two formats, but Jace was going to be a defining element of that balance. In all likelihood, he is probably ok, but the conservative approach that Wizards has taken is respectable. He MIGHT have been dominant to a greater degree than was ok. Because of that, he needed to go.
The pro-Stoneforge camp is, pardon my harshness, just wrong (this is not a jab at anyone in particular, but rather a comment against the pro-stoneforge gang as a whole). Stoneforge is an absurd addition to the format, despite his supposed answerability. Yeah, any kill spell from Punishing Fires to Path to Exile nukes the guy, and yeah, Spell Snare and Mana Leak both stop him cold, but Stoneforge DEMANDS the answer right away. Not many other cards flatly demand an answer. She is profoundly unfair in a control deck, and obnoxiously unfun in a deck packing Aether Vial. Just because a card CAN be answered, does not mean it will always be answered or is fair to play. UW Vial Stoneforge is a horrifying deck that uses Vial to effectively eliminate the 1 turn window in which you have to kill Stoneforge. An EOT Stonefoge, after you have already tapped out to play your cards, is a game changer. The alternative is to just do nothing so long as the Vial has 2 counters on it, but of course this plan favors the control player. Overall, it is good that she is gone, and I hope she stays gone forever.
-ktkenshinx-
I have been testing Modern and Overextended since the formats were announced in the early summer. In my own testing, it has proven to be inferior to Zoo in most matchups. This was also true in Overextended tournaments, and in the translation between Overextended and Modern, Zoo/Jund don't lose anything. Zoo has performed consistently in Magic's Legacy, Extended, and Overextended history. Jund was dominant in Standard and in a bit of Extended, but nowhere near the degree that Zoo was rampaging.
The only thing that Jund has over Zoo is its Blightning, along with perhaps some Inquisition/Thoughtseize backup. This does improve some matchups, but it also is irrelevant against others. Everything else in Jund, including Confidant, Bolt, Fires, Goyf, etc. is also run in Zoo. But Zoo gets to use those guys alongside Path to Exile, Wild Nacatl, Gaddock Teeg, and a host of other cards that are dependent upon white. These cards are excluded from Jund (and if they are included, then you are effectively playing Dark Zoo instead of Jund).
I am also generally surprised by your perspective on this, because I know that in the Jund thread you wrote:
This leads me to believe that you agree Zoo is the superior deck (which I thought was a good point), so I am somewhat confused by your change in mind in this last post.
-ktkenshinx-
This is really what the Stoneforge ban boils down to. Wizards wanted to be conservative in its new format. Stoneforge decks absolutely dominated Standard, and that's why she got banned. Stoneforge decks are doing quite well in Legacy, but she remains unbanned there. Legacy players get to use FoW and Swords to keep her in check, and noninteractive combo decks just don't care about turn 3 Batterskulls that swing on turn 4. But in a Modern metagame with slower combo decks, more aggro decks, and a lack of FoW and Swords, she is a little bit too powerful. Would she be broken and warp the metagame? Maybe. Maybe not. Wizards did not want to risk it, so they banned her. Given the preexisting evidence, I am fine with that, and you all should be too.
-ktkenshinx-
Jund Verdict
Jund is one of those decks that I am just not sure about. It is most readily compared to Zoo, but Zoo has a lot more going for it than does Jund. Zoo is about 2 turns faster than Jund, so it wins out in the aggro contest. While Jund has a lot more control elements, including the brutal Blightning, the deck just lacks board presence in the early turns. Most of Jund's creatures are CMC 3+, with Putrid Leech being the main exception. Pound for pound, Zoo's creatures can roll with Jund's any day of the week and come out on top. Zoo's dudes are just a lot bigger, and hit a lot earlier. If you can deal with Zoo beaters, then you can definitely deal with Jund ones.
To make matters worse, a lot of Zoo's scariest creatures (Knight, Goyf, Nacatl) are immune to the gimicky Fires/Grove engines that most Jund decks rely on against fast aggro. Knight and Goyf are also immune to Bolt in most cases. This leaves Jundo players to rely on sorcery speed Maelstrom Pulse and Terminate (which not all Jund decks use). Sadly, Zoo runs way too many threats for Jund to answer on a 1 to 1 basis, and Jund is often starting a few turns behind because of a lack of scary 1 and 2 drops (which Zoo has in abundance). If you can deal with the removal that Zoo is packing, then you can also deal with the lighter removal of Jund.
Jund is a good deck, don't get me wrong. But it is not exactly a gauntlet deck. If you can beat Zoo, you can probably beat Jund. If you can beat Jund, there is no guarantee that you can beat Zoo. The sole exception to this is the devastating Blightning that Jund runs. This is the one thing, in my opinion, that makes Jund a serious format contender. But as a whole, against many decks, it would be better to run Zoo than to run Jund. Because of that, while the deck might be good, it is not gauntlet material; Jund is often asubpar Zoo, especially when compared to Zoo decks running Confidant and Ranger and Bloodbraid Elf.
Teachings Verdict
Teachings is going to lose a lot of game 1s to Zoo and RG Ponza style decks. But it is going to win a lot of game 1s against all the midrange decks in the format, which are still very much alive even without Stoneforge and Jace. Teachings also abuses the heck out of combo players. In a metagame with more midrange and combo, Teachings is going to thrive. If the metagame shifts to Goblins, Burn, Zoo, and RG Elves, Teachings is going to be hardpressed to stay on top of board control.
But in this new metagame, no one really knows what is going to be on top, so Teachings is a pretty safe choice. It's certainly the best strict control choice you can roll with, and its games 2 and 3 are not unwinnable against even the fastest aggro. So while I agree that Teachings is going to take a trouncing in game 1 against some of the faster decks, it will make up for this weakness with the sideboard, and with its superior matchups against midrange and combo.
-ktkenshinx-
A few notes about specific cards:
Stoneforge Mystic: JUSTIFIED BAN
When Stoneforge hits play, you have your second (or third) turn to deal with it. No one is going to argue, at least not reasonable, that Stoneforge as a tutor is particularly powerful (Steelshaper's Gift was never played outside of block in any format). But Stoneforge as a card advantage, tempo advantage beast is way better than Gift can ever hope to be. It's basically a card that you answer right away or lose to. Aether Vial makes it way worse. Normally, you know that you have to kill the Stoneforge, so you get your full turn to do so. An EOT Vial dropped Stoneforge, however, can capitalize on a tapped out player and make the card completely unfair. This makes her even harder to answer, and makes her ability even more game-swinging.
The other reason Stoneforge needed to go was because she was going to cripple deck diversity. Every midrange deck needed Stoneforge. Every aggro deck playing white needed Stoneforge, and if you weren't playing white, you probably should be for the random "I win" factor of the Mystic. It is healthier for the metagame that she is gone, and I commend Wizards on its decision.
Jace: JUSTIFIED BAN
I don't think anyone liked Jace in Standard (Except the kids who owned a foil Japanese playset), and that was one of the best bans in recent memory. Some people might claim that Modern has more jace answers than did Standard, and because of that, he is safer. But really, what are those answers? The only card that helps against Jace in Modern, one absent from Standard, is Maelstrom Pulse. Nothing else targets permanents in the same way. The Jace player, however, gets dozens of new toys and tools to protect his walker: Cryptic Command, Spell Snare, Rune Snag, Condescend, etc. This makes Jace substantially more nutty, and warps the format towards blue control and midrange decks that can run him. Good riddance to the walker.
Mental Misstep: BAD BAN
When I first saw Vial unbanned earlier this year, when the Community Cup was announced, I thought that this was because MM was meant to keep it in check. Whoops. Guess not. Having Vial in a format where MM is absent is a dumb idea, as it gives aggro decks a huge boost on control. It also gives Merfolk a nice leg up on the format; from its Legacy version, the deck only loses MM, FoW, Daze, and Wasteland. You might think that FoW and Wasteland alone are crippling, but in a metagame that is a full 2 turns slower, the loss will barely be noticed.
I understand why Wizards banned the card. Legacy is completely dominated by one drops, and MM is a legacy-targeted card that shifts the format away from the omnipresent one drops (Dark Ritual, Goblin Lackey, Swords to Plowshares, Brainstorm, etc.). But those last 4 cards are probably the most powerful 1 drops in Legacy, none of which are actually legal in Modern. With the exception of Vial, there is no game changing 1 drop that Modern can muster. Also, with Glimpse of Nature banned, MM isn't as urgently needed.
But all of that said, MM is a good card that helps certain matchups. Control players will sorely miss it against aggro, and combo players will miss it against midrange discard strategies. Hopefully this card comes off the list one day.
-ktkenshinx-
1. Zoo
The premier aggro deck in the format. It loses nothing from the bannings, and has some of its worse matchups eliminated. With Stoneforge Mystic removed, it is unlikely that Zoo will run Bloodbraid Elf to gain absurd card advantage from the Mystic. Dark Zoo, with Dark Confidant splashed, will assuredly be in the vogue, but so will traditional RGW Zoo builds splashing perhaps for Dismember. Expect to see lots of Zoo at all tiers of tournaments.
To beat Zoo, expect to board in non-damage based removal. Damnationand Wrath of God are all stars here. Lifegain is also excellent, with Kitchen Finksat the top of the class, able to trade with Nacatl, Teeg, Ethersworn, Lion, Ape, Pridemage, etc. Blood Moon is also devastating against Zoo, as is Chalice of the Void set to 1 (Nacatl, Path, Bolt, Lavamancer, Loam Lion, Kird Ape all get excluded from the fight).
2. Dragonstorm
This is the turn 4 combo deck that Wizards' mercifully left untouched. Thinking that Ethersworn Canonist and Gaddock Teeg alone will stop DStorm is a bad idea, given that DStorm can easily maindeck 4 Magma Jets to improve its Zoo game, and give it more versatility against other matchups. Turn 4 is nothing to sneeze at, as DStorm is quite capable of running 4
Magma Jetand anywhere between 4-6 Remand/Mana Leak/Spell Pierce as protection. In the sideboard it can easily roll with Wipe Away to deal with other threats, as well as Gigadrowse to clamp down the control matchup. This is going to be the scariest combo deck in the format for a while, because it is by far the next most resilient thing after Combo Elves.To beat Dragonstorm, pack countermagic and disruption. This will not come as a surprise to most, but remember that Dragonstorm runs both Gigadrowse and countermagic of its own. To get around this, consider creative solutions like Silence and Mindbreak Trap. A sleeper sideboard solution, especially for aggro, is any card that kills artifacts. Losing a Lotus Bloom on the turn 4 upkeep is a huge tempo blowout for Dragonstorm, and it can cost them the game right there if they are on a clock. Qasali Pridemage and Krosan Grip are all stars in this role.
Avoid cards like Leyline of Sanctity and Gaddock Teeg for stopping DStorm. The deck runs bounce, removal, and ample ways of finding it.
3. Twelvepost
Scapeshift Valakut was the premier land-based deck, able to pack in more countermagic and a more robust kill package than Twelvepost could fit in its 60 cards. But with Scapeshift gone, Twelvepost becomes even better. Like Dragonstorm Combo, Twelvepost has a fair number of extra slots for countermagic and removal. This makes the deck resilient and capable of dealing with a wide range of threats. It can easily switch from combo (Emrakul on turn 5) to Aggro (Wurmcoil Engine) to control (Condescend and Spell Burst lockdown) over the course of a single game. Its land-focused game plan makes it a lot harder to preboard against, forcing you to commit to some cards that might be useless in other matchups. It also makes a lot of the standard anti-combo cards pretty useless; Thoughtseize won't hit the twelve posts, and countermagic won't get rid of Emrakul.
The best way to stop Twelvepost is, well, to kill or neutralize the posts. Magus of the Moon and Blood Moon excel in this role, and a lot of decks are capable of boarding them in if they carefully construct their manabase to begin with. Basic land destruction like Stone Rain and Rain of Tears and even the techy Sowing Salt are also options in the right decks.
4. Mystical Teachings
It doesn't take a genius to figure out why this deck is going to be at the top. As a control deck, it doesn't lose anything necessary from the bannings. The loss of Visions hurts some builds of the deck, but all in all the archetype survives 100% intact. The main reason that Teachings is good is its versatility. Teachings acts as a tutor for immediate removal and countermagic (Slaughter Pact and Pact of Negation), graveyard hate, life gain, bounce, etc. This gives Teachings a theoretically decent matchup against the entire field.
To beat Teachings, you need to be able to run threats that Teachings can't deal with using instants. Troll Ascetic and Thrun, the Last Troll are awesome in this role; Thrun is particularly good because he can neither be countered nor killed via Consume the Meek.
A more brutal and direct way of crushing Teachings is the old RG Ponza/Gruul deck plan. Turn 1 Birds followed by a never ending run of Stone Rain, Cryoclasm, Plow Under, and other obnoxious land denial cards.
5. All In Red/RDW
3 of the previous 4 decks have one thing in common; they are heavily reliant on a nonbasic landbase. This makes a deck that maindecks a turn 1 Blood Moon extremely powerful in the metagame. Heck, 2 of those three decks (Teachings and Twelvepost) don't even use Red mana at all! When you combine that with the ability to power out Chalice at 1 or 2 or a turn 1 Deus of Calamity, you have a deck that really capitalizes on the metagame. Deus mauls Twelvepost and DStorm, Blood Moon wrecks Zoo/Teachings/Twelvepost, and Chalice has uses against all of them. While All In Red has some really terrible matchups against other decks, it has a really excellent match percentage versus the rest of the gauntlet. This alone, combined with its unique style of gameplay, makes the deck quite powerful.
To beat AIR/RDW, you need to know what aspect of your deck that the AIR player will target. If you have lots of nonbasics, then you need some easily-cast enchantment removal. Nature's Claim is excellent in this role, and Krosan Grip is even better against the Chalice toting AIR player. If those aren't in your colors, consider Repeal as a low investment replacement. If the turn 1 Deus is more of an issue, pack 1 mana removal like Condemn or Path to Exile.
Remember that some of these decks are not necessarily Tier 1. But going up against a modern tournament without the ability to beat these badboy decks is a losing proposition. So in the immortal words of Scar, "Be Prepared".
-ktkenshinx-
Completely untrue, especially against the three decks that one drops are most important in. Zoo (Nacatl, Bolt, Path, Ape/Lion), UB Control (Thoughtseize, Ponder, Inquisition, Spell Snare, Spell Pierce), and most importantly, Combo Elves (Glimpse, Heritage Druid, Nettle Sentinel). This last deck in particular bears mention, because it is a huge combo powerhouse that is far more resilient than HG. It is also a lot slower against a Chalice. Worst case scenario is you cast it on the draw, after your opponent has maybe dropped Nettle Sentinel and Elvish Visionaries. But even then, you stop the scariest parts of the combo engine cold, and you force them to use GSZ to dig for Qasali. On the draw, it's even better, giving them only 1 turn to cast their one drops. The same goes for Zoo and UB Control, which rely on those one drops throughout the game. The card is quite strong in this format, and it was quite strong in the old extended that contained it.
Also, banning GGT does not at all stop Dredge. The closest analog to a full deck murder was the banning of Dread Return, Bridge from Below, and Narcomoeba in Overextended; those bannings ACTUALLY killed the deck. Wizards' response to Dredge was to slow it down a bit, and in the months to come, I would be that manifests as a Bridge from Below ban, because that is the card that most makes Dredge feel like it is cheating. Dredge is also decently resilient to most hate, because it can run any countermeasures it wants (Mental Misstep, Thoughtseize, Ancient Grudge, Chain of Vapor, etc.). HG is a lot more limited, and while it does have some good options, all of them are strictly worse than the alternatives that most combo decks could run. The inherent restrictions of the combo limit the deck's reactivity.
And as to CawBlade, all of that nonsense about "Decks that can beat cawblade" is just that, nonsense. Check out the T8s from tournaments during the cawblade era. It was like Affinity 2004, but worse. HG never ever came close in the old extended, and there is no real evidence to suggest it will now.
-ktkenshinx-
There are some worrisome bits of argument that this post represents. These sorts or arguments have been bouncing around the thread for a while now. The first is in regards to the type of hate that counters HG. Some people think that in order to board against HG, or maindeck the hate, you either have to play certain colors, or you have to rely on mulliganing to certain artifacts. This isn't quite how metagames work, a fact that fnord was keen to point out.
In a metagame, certain decks have better matchups against other decks. The UB/UBW/UWG decks will have the best HG matchup in the format, with tons of maindeck hate (Thoughtseize, Inquisition, Spell Pierce, Mana Leak, Remand, etc.) and the capability to board in other cards like Ethersworn Canonist, Chalice of the Void, Rule of Law, etc. Other decks, like Combo Elves, will be able to capitalize off of an HG and potentially win on their turn (barring an EOT Outburst). These decks make HG less dominant as a whole, and make players less likely to pilot the deck. It also shifts the format towards Blood Moon and Magus of the Moon based decks, as well as those which can maindeck Chalice. Thus, a metagame with HG should naturally shift towards decks which have better HG matchups. This is true of almost any powerful combo deck, Combo Elves included.
As to the historical performance of HG, the evidence is quite clear that HG has NOT done well in the past. Local events and personal experiences are not to be discounted, but bannings are not based on these anecdotal situations. They are important, absolutely, but they are not going to inform DCI banning decisions. Because the rest of the Modern metagame is going to be quite similar to the old Extended metagame, not much is going to change. It is extremely clear that old extended had no absurd HG dominance, and there is really nothing to say on this matter.
Now, I have heard an argument that Dark Depths based decks kept HG in check. In part, this is true. The combination of fast clock and lots of permission/disruption makes for a brutal HG opponent. But a deck with a slightly slower clock and a slightly more robust control base (Modern Stoneforge control decks) will be just as well suited for stopping HG. Remember, HG was once kept in check in the WHOLE FORMAT by one deck: Dark Depths. If a new deck can also keep it in check, we can expect a similar situation. HG will be powerful, but it will just be one more excellent combo deck in a sea of combo decks.
-ktkenshinx-
Comparing god hands in combo decks is silly. By that metric, I would play some Belcher or Storm variant every time if we could look at god hand's alone, and Vintage/Legacy would be dominated by meandeck tendrils and Spanish Inquisition builds. Thankfully, god hands do not make a combo deck. Average hands do in average game situations. On average, HG is not terribly resilient. it is blisteringly fast, but if you can disrupt it early, then you are in good shape for the remainder of the game. Combo Elves is more resilient than Jon McClane. It can switch game plans and fight through virtually all hatred unless it is really dedicated. In the average game, combo elves is going to have a hand up over the metagame any day of the week.
HG's god hand is absolutely, without a doubt, the best god hand that a Modern combo deck can hope for. Heck, with Gemstone Cavern and Simian Spirit Guide you can theoretically get a turn 0 (opponent's upkeep) Violent Outburst into an Emrakul and Sakashima! Even the less silly god hands are still turn 1 or turn 2 wins. But HG does not always get those hands, and goldfishing the deck in a vacuum does not imply its overall success.
So far, the only evidence that has been presented for HGs banning is its testing results in certain player's testing gauntlets, and a counterfactual historical argument, that dark depths kept the deck in check in the old days. This is not persuasive, and more evidence is needed.
Also, I am not personally insulting anyone for their opinions or their ways of looking at this situation. If I come off as aggressive or offensive, then I apologize.
-ktkenshinx-
For the most part, I definitely agree with you. But as far as permanent answers to HG go, HG is quite well equipped to deal with them. Wispamre, Ingot Chewer, Krosan Grip, and Dismember all offer HG versatile options for dealing with permanents. In that respect, HG is just as capable as Dredge in dealing with the permanent threats like Ethersworn Canonist, Chalice of the Void, Rule of Law, etc.
But I definitely agree with you in regards to HG's ability to fight reactive spells. Discard and countermagic (countermagic especially) are basically unanswerable by HG, short of their turn 0 Chancellor of the Annex. So in THAT respect, HG is definitely more vulnerable to the usual anti-combo cards than is Dredge. I am not sure if that was your intent, but if it is, then I agree that HG is in some senses more vulnerable to hatred than is Dredge. It is admittedly more outrageously explosive, but over the course of many games, players should find it more vulnerable.
-ktkenshinx-
I agree that it is sometimes frustrating to have to mulligan to find your answers against a combo deck. This is especially frustrating when that combo deck can win on turn 2 or 3 if you don't have those answers. But such non-interactive combo decks are a part of Magic, and they have been for years. Hypergenesis is not the only nutty strategy that Modern brings to bear, a strategy that requires mulling to your answers or facing defeat. Dredge is similar, and it has always been. No GY hate early? Better scoop. I don't want to hear from anyone the whole "but you can counter Dredge engines and acceleration!" You can also counter Hypergenesis cascade engines, and HG/Dredge run roughly the same number of engines.
Another aspect of this debate that worries me is the lack of hate towards Glimpse of Nature. If players were calling for the banning of BOTH HG and Glimpse, I would say "Alright, they have tested the format and hate non-interactive combo decks". But no one is doing that to my knowledge. This leads me to believe that some critics of HG have not seriously tested the format, and are just bandwagoning on the obvious combo candidate. Glimpse is scarier.
Glimpse of Nature is a far more terrifying combo engine than HG. It can combo out on either turn 3 or turn 4, which makes it basically one turn slower than HG. Unlike HG, it's not enough to hold a Spell Pierce in reserve, or to drop a Chalice at 0 out there and build up your defenses. Combo Elves is an infuriatingly resilient deck, and its ability to switch from combo to aggro and back again in the course of a turn makes it a serious force in the metagame. It's not as flashy as HG, and it's not as obvious a threat. Heck, the deck is a lot harder to play, which might account for the lack of hate towards it. But overall, Combo Elves is a REAL format boogieman.
I mean seriously: people are complaining about packing answers to HG that are only good in the HG matchup. But you are all ignoring one of the historical answers to combo elves, a card that found its way into sideboards everywhere during the combo elves reign: Engineered Plague. There are few more narrow answers than that.
-ktkenshinx-
So with that in mind, I argue that the modern gauntlet should consist of the following (in no particular order).
1. Twelvepost: The deck has a few things going for it. It is very cheap to build (especially the superior mono blue version), very explosive, and capable of playing either "combo" or hard control. This versatility makes it a huge contender, and you need to be able to deal with the unique Twelvepost gameplan or you are sure to lose at least 2-3 matches in a 9 round tournament.
2. Combo Elves: Hands down the most resilient combo deck in the format. There is no extant combo build that can so seamlessly switch from aggro to combo and back again, depending on the game state. With hugely redundant threats, excellent resiliency to traditional combo stoppers (countermagic/discard), an unfair topdeck mode, and a reputation for success from previous PTQ seasons, this deck will be everywhere. The only thing that will hold it back a little is its above-average-complexity decision trees.
3. Zoo: Best aggro deck in the format. Zoo is capable of playing all sorts of aggro games, whether a blisteringly fast one with turn 1 Nacatl, turn 2 Goyf, turn 3 Knight, or a more midrange one with removal and card advantage (Stoneforge/Confidant/Bloodbraid) to back it up. What makes Zoo so good is that it runs so many darn threats. Every creature is picked for its economy and power, which makes Zoo a brutal aggro deck. Like Combo Elves, Zoo has an excellent reputation for success. Zoo's pre Mental Misstep success in Legacy (the deck is still decent, just not as strong) also will contribute to its prevalence, as Legacy players import their decks into Modern.
4. Stoneforge Midrange (UWB/G): There are other midrange decks in Modern that might contend with this slot (BW Discard, Junk, Jund, etc.). None of them are quite as elegant as the UWG or UWB versions of this deck. UWG gets you Goyf, Noble Hierarch, and Knight of the Reliquary. UWB gets you Confidant, Go For The Throat, and Thoughtseize. Both versions get to keep Stoneforge, and then it's just a matter of filling in the rest of your slots with good cards like Vendillion Clique, Spellstutter Sprite, Jace, etc. This sheer volume of excellent cards makes this midrange version just better than others.
5. Burn: Burn is not tier 1. RDW is not tier 1. But as we know from tournament experience, tier 2 decks can absolutely win tournaments. Burn is in that category because when you don't prepare for Burn, it wrecks you. If your deck is too slow or too suicidal to deal with Turn 1 Goblin Guide (18 life), turn 2 Lava Spike/Rift Bolt (10 life), turn 3 Keldon Marauders/Lightning Bolt (4 life), then you need to rethink it. Heck, those life totals assumed that you never cracked a fetch or untapped a shockland. That sort of speed needs to be respected, especially because Burn/RDW is extremely consistent and requires only 2-3 lands to function optimally. Magus of the Moon/Blood Moon/Chalice of the Void all provide game 2 and 3 tech against troublesome strategies, making the deck even more powerful.
There are a ton of other decks that we could name that I do not think fall on a BRIEF gauntlet list. After all, I assume that this thread does indeed try to propose a BRIEF gauntlet, not a completely comprehensive one. If you want to be thorough, then you should also test against:
Dragonstorm
Scapeshift
Living End
UB Faeries
RG Elves
Goblins
Merfolk
Dredge
Tempered Steel
Enduring Ideal
Gifts Rock
Ascension Combo
RUG Twin
Stoneblade
All In Red
5 Color Control
Mystical Teachings
Protean Hulk
Doran Rock
And a bunch of other decks that I have definitely forgotten. But those other 5 decks should comprise the core of any testing gauntlet.
-ktkenshinx-