I don't think it says that. What the authors are saying is that a white person who is stopped is slightly more likely to be arrested than a black person who is stopped. They then conclude that the police are biased against whites. It seems to me to say that the police are stopping black people who have done nothing wrong more than they are stopping white people who have done nothing wrong. In other words, the police seem to be more suspicious of black people, but that suspicion is not justified by the probability of arrest.
I think you're on the right track - that sign on probability of arrest changes after they control on precincts though. They do a better job of explaining it, so I'll just point you to the footnote [33] on page 19. Then I think, on average across precincts, stopping a white pedestrian is less productive (less likely to result in an arrest). I would note they also have an interesting discussion on bias in the decision to arrest (page 13), and bias *across precincts* (within a precinct officers may not be biased, but some precincts themselves may be biased one way or another).
Statistics can measure the parameters that you select, but it can't tell you whether you've selected the correct parameters. That's the point of this argument. Statistical significance does not necessarily imply practical significance.
The usefulness of regression analysis is limited in a social or economic context by the underlying statistical assumptions. In particular, I would rarely expect the outcome we're measuring to be linearly dependent on the parameters we're measuring.
Another mark against the reliability of regression analysis: I would expect a non-normal error distribution in many real-life cases (e.g. economic outcomes are often fat-tailed.)
I think my point is - this discussion sounded like you're interested in whether race is (positively or negatively) associated with another dependent variable (say wage, or police bias)? So I guess what I mean is - I would expect you to select race as a parameter because it sounds like that's what you want to measure. How well you've specified your model seems to be a different problem.
As far as specification, the reason I pointed out omitted variable bias specifically is because the previous discussion seemed to revolve around how one knows whether it is hat-wearing or race that actually moves with police bias - whether there's an unobserved confounding variable that moves with say both race and wages, that biases the coefficient on race. (People don't actually care about race, they only care about hat-wearing, and certain races happen to wear more hats). I'm saying - don't people normally try to control on these things?
As far as other issues in estimation - sure - I guess I would ask - for example, why do you think the errors aren't normal? Is it important? There are certainly ways you can illustrate that, and different estimators you can use. And then if it's been overlooked, and you get interesting results, maybe you have a paper? Again, sort of along the lines of "research studies carelessly thrown around" - these things are part of a larger literature. I wouldn't expect to say "Hey, I got some data, ran a regression - bam - police are biased based on race, let's all go home" ;). A lot of it is saying, "Hey, I changed this assumption, or I got some data and now I can control on something we couldn't before, and I got cool answers - maybe we should look into this some more". I think you want to kind of get a feel for, on average, which way the general literature leans, and then if you're a policy-maker, how it best fits your problem (I am speculating on the latter).
Are there many published articles that include only a single covariate (say race), without controlling for other observed or unobserved covariates? I would be surprised if there wasn't already a substantial literature for the effects of race/gender on wages (or maybe stop-and-frisk), and even more surprised if they only looked at two variables in a vacuum.
I think the difference between swimmer's privilege and race privilege, in terms of omitted variable bias, is that if your dependent variable is say stop-and-frisk, and if race moves with both stop-and-frisk and swimming, swimming could pick up that bias, but does swimming move with both race *and* stop-and-frisk?
If you don't think swimming moves with stop-and-frisk, I think you can safely drop it (and you probably should, if it moves with race).
Not to mention, isn't race your coefficient of interest? You can regress on race *and* be careful with your specification.
As a note, a quick search for stop-and-frisk and race hits: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18803. I feel obligated to caveat that I don't mean this as "here is the answer to your question, recent study shows". Somewhat tangential to a previous thread on research studies - these things are always part of a much larger literature. The linked paper for example cites a different article with a different data set that generates a different conclusion. I suspect there's not a substantial literature on stop-and-frisk and race specifically, but I bet there is a good deal for wages and race. I would follow the citation trail.
I dunno, I find the peatiness of scotch to be a defining quality. I don't mean all scotches are peaty or need to be (those from Islay mainly, no?). But it seems to be a unique characteristic that I don't get as much from other whiskies. What I mean I guess, is I think it's worth trying a peaty one. Definitely can be hit or miss though as far as personal taste.
The Talisker 10 is quite nice. Has a little bit of that smoke while being nicely balanced. Also like the Balvenie 15 and Glenmorangie 10 & Lasanta of those mentioned above. Also agree, scotches are expensive... (Anybody have some recommendations for a good sippin' rye?)
Edit: Oh! A personal favorite is also the Dalmore (12 or 18, if you're lucky enough). You can probably find the 12 easily - not peaty, pretty sweet, like sherry (not as sweet, but reminds me of?).
I know Rate Beer will suggest certain glassware for certain beers (if for example you look up a specific beer). I imagine what glassware to get must depend on what kind of beer you like to drink.
In my decidedly amateur experience - I do feel like I get more of the smell (aroma?) when I use a tulip. I just picked mine up on a whim for a few bucks when I was in a Crate and Barrel for some reason I can't remember. Well worth it!
Heh, Mirari's Wake actually seems pretty sweet (and I feel fits the kind of G/W decks we see around here) - I want a non-foil modern bordered copy of it though (crazy arbitrary cube rules whee...).
As an aside, the other guild where I could see doing something similar is Rakdos, where there's Rakdos Cackler, Rakdos Shred-Freak, and Murderous Redcap, all of which R/-B or B/-R (where -X is not color X) decks are happy to 'steal' (Rakdos Shred-Freak perhaps slightly less so - double-red or double-black when you're not Rakdos can be a little rough).
I feel like the trade-off between keeping them where they are and moving them is that by moving them into mono-colors the cards in your cube are a little more difficult to cast - you've replaced mono-colored cards with gold cards. But I'd also like to give my guilds a little more of an identity, and reward players for going into colors - which is sad if someone keeps stealing my sweet one-drops.
I had thought about taking Kitchen Finks and Dryad Militant out of my guild section recently. If I did so, I would cut 1 green and 1 white and take both out (1/2 white and 1/2 green each - I would want to take both or none out).
I ultimately didn't because I didn't have two G/W cards I would want to add in to replace them anyway. The reason it came up at all is because I've noticed W/X or G/X (where X is not G or W) decks are perfectly happy to 'steal' Finks or Militant (like Boros aggro is perfectly happy playing Militant), and they're pretty playable in those decks (as opposed to say Figure of Destiny, which is probably unplayable in a R/X deck where X != W).
Theros:
Elspeth, Sun's Champion
Spear of Heliod
Polukranos, World Eater
Thassa, God of the Sea
Lightning Strike
Sylvan Caryatid
Xenagos, the Reveler
Tormented Hero
Hero's Downfall
Steam Augury
Soldier of the Pantheon
Firedrinker Satyr
Purphoros, God of the Forge
Erebos, God of the Dead
Heliod, God of the Sun
Hythonia the Cruel
Medomai the Ageless
Nylea, God of the Hunt
Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
Born of the Gods:
Brimaz, King of Oreskos
Kiora, the Crashing Wave
Courser of Kruphix
Pain Seer
Spirit of the Labyrinth
Ephara, God of the Polis
Karametra, God of Harvests
Mogis, God of Slaughter
Phenax, God of Deception
Tromokratis
Xenagos, God of Revels
Journey into Nyx:
Mana Confluence
Gnarled Scarhide
Banishing Light
Athreos, God of Passage
Iroas, God of Victory
Keranos, God of Storms
King Macar, the Gold-Cursed
Kruphix, God of Horizons
Pharika, God of Affliction
Ajani, Mentor of Heroes
Avacyn, Guardian Angel
Jalira, Master Polymorphist
Kurkesh, Onakke Ancient
Ob Nixilis, Unshackled
Sliver Hivelord
Yisan, the Wanderer Bard
Illusory Angel
Resolute Archangel
Seraph of the Masses
Ajani Steadfast
Garruk, Apex Predator
Jace, the Living Guildpact
Khans of Tarkir:
Bloodsoaked Champion
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
Dig Through Time
Clever Impersonator
War-Name Aspirant
I had started trying to come up with a list of 229 cards in a Word document -- but man, I really didn't want to put that much effort into it. I can wait 8 months.
Avalanche Riders would be really sweet, even if it has an FNM promo.
As for including the fees in the price, it's not always so simple, as higher prices will sometimes cost you sales.
I guess we have that handy 'like' function now, but I thought I'd chime in with a 'hear hear' anyway - I don't go by the listed price when sellers want gift or 4% (or 5%) - I go by the listed price*1.04, because I know I'll be paying the fee.
Edit: Just as a note - I don't really have anything against sellers wanting me to pick up the fee - but I do base my decisions off the assumption I'll be paying it.
I've made trades here for a year or two, and I've enjoyed it. Haven't run into many bad apples (only one I can think of, he got banned, but I got my cards anyway - lucky I guess).
I think a lot of the good points have been made or are in that Safe Trading Guide already - it is a little tough when you're just starting out - I wouldn't trade with people who also have few refs (but just a little more than you, so you have to send first ;)). That's just asking for trouble (and it is tough, because your universe of potential traders becomes smaller).
The Paypal gift thing never bothered me - I always just pay the fee, and assume I'll have to - gift just sounds like a bad idea (although I'm not super familiar with Paypal rules).
I've actually sent a few trades without DC recently =O. The first like 2 out of 60. Yeah, I may regret it later - but they were really small-valued trades. I'm pretty conservative, but even I don't mind sending out a 5-dollar trade without DC. I'll just replace them from SCG and let them worry about it ;).
Just to confirm (I took a quick glance at your list), you're not running signets? I ask because you included the two talismans over their respective counterparts? Any reason for that?
If you want orange, I would check out the Jap KMC's Matte's.
I use the KMC Super Oranges (the glossy ones, didn't know they had orange mattes), and wanted to note that the Super Oranges aren't entirely opaque.
You have to be sort of looking for it, but it is noticeable whether you have a double-faced card in there. It bothers me slightly, but I'm not sure how to fix it without replacing all the sleeves (thought about double-sleeving, but the perfect fits are transparent anyway, right...?).
I do like the KMCs a lot though - very sturdy - and would definitely recommend them in an opaque color if you're looking (I've also used the matte black and blue, and they're both opaque).
I think you're on the right track - that sign on probability of arrest changes after they control on precincts though. They do a better job of explaining it, so I'll just point you to the footnote [33] on page 19. Then I think, on average across precincts, stopping a white pedestrian is less productive (less likely to result in an arrest). I would note they also have an interesting discussion on bias in the decision to arrest (page 13), and bias *across precincts* (within a precinct officers may not be biased, but some precincts themselves may be biased one way or another).
I think my point is - this discussion sounded like you're interested in whether race is (positively or negatively) associated with another dependent variable (say wage, or police bias)? So I guess what I mean is - I would expect you to select race as a parameter because it sounds like that's what you want to measure. How well you've specified your model seems to be a different problem.
As far as specification, the reason I pointed out omitted variable bias specifically is because the previous discussion seemed to revolve around how one knows whether it is hat-wearing or race that actually moves with police bias - whether there's an unobserved confounding variable that moves with say both race and wages, that biases the coefficient on race. (People don't actually care about race, they only care about hat-wearing, and certain races happen to wear more hats). I'm saying - don't people normally try to control on these things?
As far as other issues in estimation - sure - I guess I would ask - for example, why do you think the errors aren't normal? Is it important? There are certainly ways you can illustrate that, and different estimators you can use. And then if it's been overlooked, and you get interesting results, maybe you have a paper? Again, sort of along the lines of "research studies carelessly thrown around" - these things are part of a larger literature. I wouldn't expect to say "Hey, I got some data, ran a regression - bam - police are biased based on race, let's all go home" ;). A lot of it is saying, "Hey, I changed this assumption, or I got some data and now I can control on something we couldn't before, and I got cool answers - maybe we should look into this some more". I think you want to kind of get a feel for, on average, which way the general literature leans, and then if you're a policy-maker, how it best fits your problem (I am speculating on the latter).
I think the difference between swimmer's privilege and race privilege, in terms of omitted variable bias, is that if your dependent variable is say stop-and-frisk, and if race moves with both stop-and-frisk and swimming, swimming could pick up that bias, but does swimming move with both race *and* stop-and-frisk?
If you don't think swimming moves with stop-and-frisk, I think you can safely drop it (and you probably should, if it moves with race).
Not to mention, isn't race your coefficient of interest? You can regress on race *and* be careful with your specification.
As a note, a quick search for stop-and-frisk and race hits: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18803. I feel obligated to caveat that I don't mean this as "here is the answer to your question, recent study shows". Somewhat tangential to a previous thread on research studies - these things are always part of a much larger literature. The linked paper for example cites a different article with a different data set that generates a different conclusion. I suspect there's not a substantial literature on stop-and-frisk and race specifically, but I bet there is a good deal for wages and race. I would follow the citation trail.
The Talisker 10 is quite nice. Has a little bit of that smoke while being nicely balanced. Also like the Balvenie 15 and Glenmorangie 10 & Lasanta of those mentioned above. Also agree, scotches are expensive... (Anybody have some recommendations for a good sippin' rye?)
Edit: Oh! A personal favorite is also the Dalmore (12 or 18, if you're lucky enough). You can probably find the 12 easily - not peaty, pretty sweet, like sherry (not as sweet, but reminds me of?).
In my decidedly amateur experience - I do feel like I get more of the smell (aroma?) when I use a tulip. I just picked mine up on a whim for a few bucks when I was in a Crate and Barrel for some reason I can't remember. Well worth it!
I forgot about Sigarda...the other ones I thought of were Armada Wurm and Gavony Township. Ultimately, they have to be better than the 1 G and 1 W card I'm going to end up cutting though (maybe River Boa and Akroma's Vengeance/Temporal Isolation).
I must ponder it...
As an aside, the other guild where I could see doing something similar is Rakdos, where there's Rakdos Cackler, Rakdos Shred-Freak, and Murderous Redcap, all of which R/-B or B/-R (where -X is not color X) decks are happy to 'steal' (Rakdos Shred-Freak perhaps slightly less so - double-red or double-black when you're not Rakdos can be a little rough).
I feel like the trade-off between keeping them where they are and moving them is that by moving them into mono-colors the cards in your cube are a little more difficult to cast - you've replaced mono-colored cards with gold cards. But I'd also like to give my guilds a little more of an identity, and reward players for going into colors - which is sad if someone keeps stealing my sweet one-drops.
I ultimately didn't because I didn't have two G/W cards I would want to add in to replace them anyway. The reason it came up at all is because I've noticed W/X or G/X (where X is not G or W) decks are perfectly happy to 'steal' Finks or Militant (like Boros aggro is perfectly happy playing Militant), and they're pretty playable in those decks (as opposed to say Figure of Destiny, which is probably unplayable in a R/X deck where X != W).
Putrid Leech -> Lotleth Troll
Putrefy -> Abrupt Decay
Glissa, the Traitor -> Vraska the Unseen
Azorius Signet -> Detention Sphere
Wall of Denial -> Supreme Verdict
Prophetic Bolt -> Izzet Charm
Olivia Voldaren -> Rakdos Cackler
Blightning -> Rakdos Shred-Freak
Terminate -> Dreadbore
Gavony Township -> Dryad Militant
Artifact:
Razormane Masticore -> Coldsteel Heart
Crystal Ball -> Chromatic Lantern
Precursor Golem -> Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
Black:
Liliana Vess -> Booster Tutor
Sorin Markov -> Pack Rat
Bloodgift Demon -> Smallpox
Hex Parasite -> Fleshbag Marauder
Blue:
Hinder -> Force Spike
Sphinx of Jwar Isle -> Syncopate
Red:
Forked Bolt -> Ash Zealot
Goblin Ruinblaster -> Gore-House Chainwalker
Red Sun's Zenith -> Rocket-Powered Turbo Slug
Brimstone Volley -> Squee, Goblin Nabob
Pyroclasm -> Zealous Conscripts
Green:
Thornling -> Deadbridge Goliath
Hornet Queen -> Symbol Status
Beast Within -> Primeval Titan
Ulvenwald Tracker -> Somberwald Sage
Land:
Phyrexian Processor -> City of Ass
Edits (1/3/13):
Bramblecrush -> Hornet Queen
Bonehoard -> Guardian Idol
Chimeric Mass -> Thran Dynamo
Basilisk Collar -> Worn Powerstone
Black Knight -> Death Cloud
Oblivion Stone -> Prismatic Lens
Nantuko Shade -> Reassembling Skeleton
Bloodline Keeper -> Living Death
Knight of Meadowgrain -> Precinct Captain
Magus of the Abyss (in exchange for Living Death) perhaps...? Not sure how feasible a Pox subtheme is without Braids, Stax or...Pox...
Decks:
1x Blackcleave Cliffs
1x Blood Crypt
1x Death Cloud
1x Diregraf Ghoul
1x Fleshbag Marauder
1x Fume Spitter
1x Geralf's Messenger
1x Gravecrawler
1x Greater Gargadon
1x Hell's Thunder
1x Inquisition of Kozilek
1x Kokusho, the Evening Star
1x Lavaclaw Reaches
1x Magma Jet
1x Molten Rain
1x Molten-tail Masticore
5x Mountain
1x Profane Command
1x Pulse Tracker
1x Rakdos Shred-Freak
1x Reanimate
1x Reassembling Skeleton
1x Skullclamp
1x Smallpox
1x Squee, Goblin Nabob
1x Stonewright
8x Swamp
1x Sword of War and Peace
1x Ajani, Caller of the Pride
1x Arc Lightning
1x Ash Zealot
1x Battlefield Forge
1x Bonesplitter
1x Disenchant
1x Elite Vanguard
1x Figure of Destiny
1x Glorious Anthem
1x Grafted Wargear
1x Isamaru, Hound of Konda
1x Kor Sanctifiers
1x Lodestone Golem
1x Mimic Vat
1x Mishra's Factory
5x Mountain
1x Mutavault
5x Plains
1x Plated Geopede
1x Rakdos Cackler
1x Rakdos Shred-Freak
1x Sacred Foundry
1x Savannah Lions
1x Skullclamp
1x Slayers' Stronghold
1x Spikeshot Elder
1x Steppe Lynx
1x Stone Rain
1x Stormblood Berserker
1x Stromkirk Noble
1x Umezawa's Jitte
1x Cloudgoat Ranger
1x Condescend
1x Crystal Shard
1x Detention Sphere
1x Disenchant
1x Faith's Fetters
1x Flickerwisp
1x Force Spike
1x Hallowed Fountain
8x Island
1x Lone Missionary
1x Mana Tithe
1x Momentary Blink
1x Phantasmal Image
8x Plains
1x Ponder
1x Remand
1x Repeal
1x Sea Gate Oracle
1x Temporal Isolation
1x Triskelion
1x Vendilion Clique
1x Venser, Shaper Savant
1x Venser, the Sojourner
1x Wall of Omens
1x Azorius Chancery
1x Breeding Pool
1x Disenchant
1x Dryad Militant
1x Dungeon Geists
1x Elspeth, Knight-Errant
4x Forest
1x Isamaru, Hound of Konda
4x Island
1x Loam Lion
1x Lone Missionary
1x Looter il-Kor
1x Mimic Vat
1x Mistral Charger
1x Mulldrifter
1x Path to Exile
7x Plains
1x Ratchet Bomb
1x Reveillark
1x Savannah Lions
1x Scavenging Ooze
1x Steppe Lynx
1x Stoneforge Mystic
1x Stormfront Pegasus
1x Sword of Light and Shadow
1x Trygon Predator
1x Wickerbough Elder
1x Batterskull
1x Bloodghast
1x Condescend
1x Dark Confidant
1x Death Cloud
1x Diregraf Ghoul
1x Duress
1x Evolving Wilds
1x Faerie Conclave
1x Fleshbag Marauder
1x Force Spike
1x Geralf's Messenger
1x Gravecrawler
1x Inquisition of Kozilek
1x Into the Roil
5x Island
1x Lightning Greaves
1x Looter il-Kor
1x Oona's Prowler
1x Phyrexian Arena
1x Remand
1x Repeal
1x Smallpox
10x Swamp
1x Sword of Body and Mind
1x Thoughtseize
1x Blackcleave Cliffs
1x Blood Crypt
1x City of Ass
1x City of Brass
1x Death Cloud
1x Dimir Aqueduct
1x Diregraf Ghoul
1x Duress
1x Enclave Cryptologist
1x Fleshbag Marauder
1x Geralf's Messenger
1x Gravecrawler
1x Innocent Blood
2x Island
1x Izzet Boilerworks
1x Kokusho, the Evening Star
1x Looter il-Kor
1x Man-o'-War
1x Mana Leak
1x Manic Vandal
1x Mountain
1x Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker
1x Preordain
1x Reassembling Skeleton
1x Siege-Gang Commander
1x Smallpox
1x Solemn Simulacrum
1x Squee, Goblin Nabob
1x Steam Vents
5x Swamp
1x Sword of Light and Shadow
1x Terramorphic Expanse
1x Thran Dynamo
1x Watery Grave
1x Birds of Paradise
1x Cultivate
16x Forest
1x Garruk Wildspeaker
1x Green Sun's Zenith
1x Hornet Queen
1x Indrik Stomphowler
1x Joraga Treespeaker
1x Kodama's Reach
1x Krosan Tusker
1x Llanowar Elves
1x Mind Stone
1x Mishra's Factory
1x Myr Battlesphere
1x Noble Hierarch
1x Sakura-Tribe Elder
1x Somberwald Sage
1x Sword of Fire and Ice
1x Thran Dynamo
1x Treetop Village
1x Wall of Blossoms
1x Wickerbough Elder
1x Woodfall Primus
1x Yavimaya Elder
1x Bloodbraid Elf
1x Broodmate Dragon
1x Copperline Gorge
1x Dreadbore
1x Firebolt
3x Forest
1x Graveborn Muse
1x Gravecrawler
1x Lavaclaw Reaches
1x Lotleth Troll
1x Maelstrom Pulse
1x Manic Vandal
3x Mountain
1x Murderous Redcap
1x Raging Ravine
1x Scavenging Ooze
1x Searing Spear
1x Snuff Out
1x Stomping Ground
4x Swamp
1x Sword of Light and Shadow
1x Sword of War and Peace
1x Torch Fiend
1x Treetop Village
1x Troll Ascetic
1x Twinblade Slasher
1x Verdant Catacombs
1x Vines of Vastwood
1x Vorapede
1x Wickerbough Elder
1x Wolfbitten Captive
1x Zealous Conscripts
1x Creeping Tar Pit
1x Dimir Signet
1x Dismember
1x Duress
1x Enclave Cryptologist
1x Everflowing Chalice
1x Go for the Throat
1x Icy Manipulator
7x Island
1x Izzet Signet
1x Mind Stone
1x Myr Battlesphere
1x Phyrexian Arena
1x Pithing Needle
1x Preordain
1x Ratchet Bomb
1x Simic Signet
1x Snuff Out
1x Spellskite
8x Swamp
1x Tezzeret the Seeker
1x Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas
1x Thirst for Knowledge
1x Thoughtseize
1x Thran Dynamo
1x Watery Grave
1x Battlefield Forge
1x Bonesplitter
1x Char
1x Cloistered Youth
1x Copperline Gorge
1x Disenchant
1x Elite Vanguard
2x Forest
1x Grim Lavamancer
1x Hellrider
1x Loam Lion
2x Mountain
5x Plains
1x Porcelain Legionnaire
1x Raging Ravine
1x Rancor
1x Razorverge Thicket
1x Sacred Foundry
1x Savannah Lions
1x Searing Spear
1x Silverblade Paladin
1x Steppe Lynx
1x Stomping Ground
1x Stonewright
1x Stromkirk Noble
1x Sword of Feast and Famine
1x Treetop Village
1x Umezawa's Jitte
1x Vines of Vastwood
1x Wickerbough Elder
1x Wild Mongrel
1x Wild Nacatl
1x Wolfbitten Captive
1x Blood Crypt
1x Chrome Mox
1x Coalition Relic
1x Crucible of Worlds
1x Dimir Aqueduct
1x Dimir Signet
1x Duress
1x Engineered Explosives
1x Everflowing Chalice
1x Force Spike
1x Gilded Lotus
1x Guardian Idol
1x Inquisition of Kozilek
8x Island
1x Izzet Charm
1x Karn Liberated
1x Mimic Vat
3x Mountain
1x Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker
1x Ponder
1x Remand
4x Swamp
1x Tezzeret the Seeker
1x Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas
1x Thirst for Knowledge
1x Wildfire
1x Worn Powerstone
1x Bitterblossom
1x Blackcleave Cliffs
1x Blood Crypt
1x Death Cloud
1x Diregraf Ghoul
1x Dreadbore
1x Fetid Heath
1x Fleshbag Marauder
1x Godless Shrine
1x Grafted Wargear
1x Gravecrawler
1x Greater Gargadon
1x Kor Sanctifiers
1x Lightning Greaves
1x Lingering Souls
1x Magus of the Abyss
1x Mirror Entity
3x Mountain
1x Pack Rat
3x Plains
1x Precinct Captain
1x Reassembling Skeleton
1x Siege-Gang Commander
1x Smallpox
1x Spectral Procession
1x Spikeshot Elder
1x Squee, Goblin Nabob
7x Swamp
1x Sword of Body and Mind
Prismatic Lens -> Gilded Lotus
Living Death -> Magus of the Abyss
Status Symbol -> Primal Command
Simic Signet -> Simic Charm
Oona, Queen of the Fae -> Dimir Charm
Night's Whisper -> Abyssal Persecutor
River Boa -> Experiment One
Dimir Charm -> Duskmantle Seer
Vraska the Unseen -> Deathrite Shaman
Simic Sky Swallower -> Prime Speaker Zegana
Lightning Helix -> Boros Charm
Jace, Memory Adept -> Mental Misstep
Akroma's Vengeance -> Terminus
Devil's Play -> Bonfire of the Damned
Stillmoon Cavalier -> Obzedat, Ghost Council
Momentary Blink -> Geist of Saint Traft
New post:
Ohran Viper -> Tarmogoyf
Meloku the Clouded Mirror -> Aetherling
Deadbridge Goliath -> Thragtusk
Yosei, the Morning Star -> Imposing Sovereign
Torch Fiend -> Sulfuric Vortex
Chameleon Colossus -> Elvish Mystic
Rakdos Shred-Freak -> Spike Jester
Graveborn Muse -> Blood Scrivener
Mental Misstep -> Arcane Denial
Syncopate -> Control Magic
Broken Ambitions -> Dismiss
Fume Spitter -> Tombstalker
out -> Stone Rain
out -> Vampire Hexmage
into Loose Guild -> Rakdos Cackler
into Loose Guild -> Murderous Redcap
into Rakdos -> Falkenrath Aristocrat
into Rakdos -> Blightning
Izzet Signet -> Ral Zarek
Temporal Isolation -> Unexpectedly Absent
Kira, Great Glass-Spinner -> True-Name Nemesis
Gifts Ungiven -> Memory Lapse
Bone Shredder -> Ophiomancer
Booster Tutor -> Curse of Shallow Graves
Black Sun's Zenith -> Toxic Deluge
Molten Rain -> Tempt with Vengeance
Rocket-Powered Turbo Slug -> Thundermaw Hellkite
Vines of Vastwood -> Curse of Predation
Lodestone Golem -> Nevinyrral's Disk
out -> Skinshifter
out -> Stormfront Pegasus
into Loose Guild -> Dryad Militant
into Loose Guild -> Kitchen Finks
into Selesyna -> Voice of Resurgence
into Selesyna -> Mirari's Wake
Precinct Captain -> Council's Judgment
Izzet Charm -> Dack Fayden
Spike Jester -> Grenzo, Dungeon Warden
Aether Adept -> Misdirection
Cloistered Youth -> Rout
Indrik Stomphowler -> Kalonian Hydra
Chandra's Phoenix -> Chandra, Pyromaster
Abrupt Decay -> Pernicious Deed
City of Ass -> Paliano, the High City
Skullclamp -> Advantageous Proclamation
Sol Ring -> Backup Plan
Theros:
Elspeth, Sun's Champion
Spear of Heliod
Polukranos, World Eater
Thassa, God of the Sea
Lightning Strike
Sylvan Caryatid
Xenagos, the Reveler
Tormented Hero
Hero's Downfall
Steam Augury
Soldier of the Pantheon
Firedrinker Satyr
Purphoros, God of the Forge
Erebos, God of the Dead
Heliod, God of the Sun
Hythonia the Cruel
Medomai the Ageless
Nylea, God of the Hunt
Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
Born of the Gods:
Brimaz, King of Oreskos
Kiora, the Crashing Wave
Courser of Kruphix
Pain Seer
Spirit of the Labyrinth
Ephara, God of the Polis
Karametra, God of Harvests
Mogis, God of Slaughter
Phenax, God of Deception
Tromokratis
Xenagos, God of Revels
Journey into Nyx:
Mana Confluence
Gnarled Scarhide
Banishing Light
Athreos, God of Passage
Iroas, God of Victory
Keranos, God of Storms
King Macar, the Gold-Cursed
Kruphix, God of Horizons
Pharika, God of Affliction
Ajani, Mentor of Heroes
M15:
Reclamation Sage
Goblin Rabblemaster
Borderland Marauder
Nissa, Worldwaker
Generator Servant
Avacyn, Guardian Angel
Jalira, Master Polymorphist
Kurkesh, Onakke Ancient
Ob Nixilis, Unshackled
Sliver Hivelord
Yisan, the Wanderer Bard
Illusory Angel
Resolute Archangel
Seraph of the Masses
Ajani Steadfast
Garruk, Apex Predator
Jace, the Living Guildpact
Khans of Tarkir:
Bloodsoaked Champion
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
Dig Through Time
Clever Impersonator
War-Name Aspirant
Anafenza, the Foremost
Narset, Enlightened Master
Sidisi, Brood Tyrant
Surrak Dragonclaw
Zurgo Helmsmasher
Sorin, Solemn Visitor
Archangel of Thune
Avalanche Riders would be really sweet, even if it has an FNM promo.
Kessig Wolf Run -> Huntmaster of the Fells
Agony Warp -> Baleful Strix
Caves of Koilos -> Fetid Heath
Llanowar Wastes -> Twilight Mire
Krosan Grip -> Basking Rootwalla
Blastoderm -> Wall of Blossoms
Brutalizer Exarch -> Hornet Queen
Slagstorm -> Searing Spear
Blood Knight -> Stonewright
Moltensteel Dragon -> Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
Rite of Replication -> Daze
Fettergeist -> Dungeon Geists
Barter in Blood -> Geralf's Messenger
Plague Sliver -> Liliana of the Veil
Edit (9/10/12):
Ronom Unicorn -> Ajani, Caller of the Pride
Dismal Failure -> Tamiyo, the Moon Sage
Juggernaut -> Ratchet Bomb
Maybe:
Thundermaw Hellkite
Thragtusk
I guess we have that handy 'like' function now, but I thought I'd chime in with a 'hear hear' anyway - I don't go by the listed price when sellers want gift or 4% (or 5%) - I go by the listed price*1.04, because I know I'll be paying the fee.
Edit: Just as a note - I don't really have anything against sellers wanting me to pick up the fee - but I do base my decisions off the assumption I'll be paying it.
I think a lot of the good points have been made or are in that Safe Trading Guide already - it is a little tough when you're just starting out - I wouldn't trade with people who also have few refs (but just a little more than you, so you have to send first ;)). That's just asking for trouble (and it is tough, because your universe of potential traders becomes smaller).
The Paypal gift thing never bothered me - I always just pay the fee, and assume I'll have to - gift just sounds like a bad idea (although I'm not super familiar with Paypal rules).
I've actually sent a few trades without DC recently =O. The first like 2 out of 60. Yeah, I may regret it later - but they were really small-valued trades. I'm pretty conservative, but even I don't mind sending out a 5-dollar trade without DC. I'll just replace them from SCG and let them worry about it ;).
http://magiccards.info/pc2/en/133.html,
FYI.
Just to confirm (I took a quick glance at your list), you're not running signets? I ask because you included the two talismans over their respective counterparts? Any reason for that?
Instigator Gang -> Lightning Mauler
Thieving Magpie -> Fettergeist
Brion Stoutarm -> Slayer's Stronghold
Paladin en-Vec -> Silverblade Paladin
Calciderm -> Restoration Angel
Great Sable Stag -> Ulvenwald Tracker
Tamiyo as well...soon.
I use the KMC Super Oranges (the glossy ones, didn't know they had orange mattes), and wanted to note that the Super Oranges aren't entirely opaque.
You have to be sort of looking for it, but it is noticeable whether you have a double-faced card in there. It bothers me slightly, but I'm not sure how to fix it without replacing all the sleeves (thought about double-sleeving, but the perfect fits are transparent anyway, right...?).
I do like the KMCs a lot though - very sturdy - and would definitely recommend them in an opaque color if you're looking (I've also used the matte black and blue, and they're both opaque).