Well, those criteria look pretty reasonable, though they aren't the ones I would use, and you're not the first person to test Dredge variations this way. The shuffling seems sufficient as well.
I can't really explain the discrepancy between your results and my own. They are vastly different. Where you found a deck that doesn't even kill as quickly as Burn half of the time, I found a reliable turn 2-3 combo deck. It doesn't mulligan much. There's little weakness to Wasteland.
I wish you all the best with Burn, of course, it's a deck that I love as well.
Before I give up on Dredge as a competitive deck, think you could share your list with me Lomador? I wouldn't mind testing it out as well, and if I get better results than I'd be happy to field it. I'm in this odd spot where I love playing Dredge but have had horrible luck with it, whereas Burn treats me really well in tournaments but I honestly find it a little boring to play (probably because I've been playing it for the last 4 years and just want to play something different). If I could find a stable and consistent Dredge list I'd definitely field it, I'm just having trouble coming up with a list that suffers from less than a 15% "mull to oblivion" rate.
Hey everyone! In the interest of finding out whether Dredge is a deck I should be playing this season or not, and if so what version of the deck I should play, I ran a total of 60 test games using 3 different variations of LED-less Dredge (20 games with each) and recorded the mulligan rate and kill speed data from each game. For the purpose of consistency and reducing variables I applied the following stipulations to every game.
• Every test game was goldfishing starting on the play. The opponent did absolutely nothing each turn.
• The deck was pile shuffled once then side shuffled 7 times between each game
• The deck was side shuffled 7 times between each mulligan
• I would mulligan any opening hand or Mull to 6 hand that did not contain a dredger, discard outlet (Cabal Therapy included), and dredging accelerant (Careful Study, Breakthrough, or Cephalid Coliseum)
• I would keep any Mull To 5 or less hand that included a dredger and a way to get it into the graveyard (Cabal Therapy included)
That said, here's the lists I tested and the statistics on each:
No Mulligan: 6 out of 20 games = 30% of the time
Mulligan to 6: 3 out of 20 games = 15% of the time
Mulligan to 5: 3 out of 20 games = 15% of the time
Mulligan to 4: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
Mulligan to 3: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
Mulligan to Oblivion: 6 out of 20 games = 30% of the time
Win on Turn 1: 0 out of 20 games = 0% of the time
Win on Turn 2: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
Win on Turn 3: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Win on Turn 4: 7 out of 20 games = 35% of the time
Win on Turn 5: 2 out of 20 games = 10% of the time
No Win (mulligan to oblivion, automatic loss): 6 out of 20 games = 30% of the time
No Mulligan: 7 out of 20 games = 35% of the time
Mulligan to 6: 5 out of 20 games = 25% of the time
Mulligan to 5: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Mulligan to 4: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
Mulligan to 3: 0 out of 20 games = 0% of the time
Mulligan to Oblivion: 3 out of 20 games = 15% of the time
Win on Turn 1: 0 out of 20 games = 0% of the time
Win on Turn 2: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
Win on Turn 3: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Win on Turn 4: 5 out of 20 games = 25% of the time
Win on Turn 5: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Win on Turn 6: 2 out of 20 games = 10% of the time
Win on Turn 7: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
No Win (mulligan to oblivion, automatic loss): 3 out of 20 games = 15% of the time
No Mulligan: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Mulligan to 6: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Mulligan to 5: 5 out of 20 games = 25% of the time
Mulligan to 4: 2 out of 20 games = 10% of the time
Mulligan to 3: 0 out of 20 games = 0% of the time
Mulligan to Oblivion: 5 out of 20 games = 25% of the time
Win on Turn 1: 0 out of 20 games = 0% of the time
Win on Turn 2: 0 out of 20 games = 0% of the time
Win on Turn 3: 3 out of 20 games = 15% of the time
Win on Turn 4: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Win on Turn 5: 3 out of 20 games = 15% of the time
Win on Turn 6: 2 out of 20 games = 10% of the time
Win on Turn 7: 2 out of 20 games = 10% of the time
Win on Turn 8: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
No Win (mulligan to oblivion, automatic loss): 5 out of 20 games = 25% of the time
Whew! That was a lot of testing! So, what did I learn from all this? A couple interesting things. The first is that the number of Golgari Thugs you run has a big impact on consistency, both in terms of mulligan frequency and the speed at which the deck can kill the opponent. I was sure my 3rd variation of the deck that ran Griselbrand in place of one of the Golgari Thugs would have a faster win speed than the 2nd variation which ran a full set of 4 Thugs and only Flame-Kin Zealot as the lone Dread Return target, but that was not the case. Running 3 Thugs as opposed to 4 resulted in more frequent mulligans and a slower overall deck speed due to the tendency to occasionally whiff on a dredge attempt with Careful Study, Breakthrough, or Cephalid Coliseum.
The lesson to run no less than 4 Golgari Thugs for the best combination of consistency and speed was an important lesson for me, but I think what I really learned from these 60 test games is that I'm not going to be playing Dredge this season. Every variation of the deck lost to itself without the opponent ever having to do anything (by mulliganing itself to an automatic loss) anywhere from 15% to as much as 30% of the time. While deck variation 2, which employed a full set of 4 Thugs, was the most consistent with a "Mulligan to Oblivion" rate of only 15% I still think that's too high of a rate for me to want to field Dredge in a tournament.
I always knew that even the best Dredge builds were pretty inconsistent, but I was under the impression that the deck's typical kill speed was fast enough to offset it's lack of consistency. But my data shows that for every variation of the deck I tested the average kill turn was Turn 4, with Turn 5 kills occurring only slightly less often. In my humble opinion that is simply not fast enough to make a 15% automatic loss rate acceptable. Those kill speeds were also recorded in a goldfish scenario and would have certainly been much slower if there was an opponent interacting with you by putting up blockers. Also worth noting is Dredge's lack of resilience to counter magic. Of the 46 out of 60 games in which the decks did not mulligan themselves to an automatic loss, in 43 of them I was only able to get 1 discard outlet in my opening hand. If that discard outlet was countered I would have been left doing literally nothing for the rest of game. Another issue that should be considered is the deck's vulnerability to Wasteland. With only 14 lands in the deck and all of them being non-basic there is a very good chance that in many matchups your turn 1 land may get Wastelanded, preventing you from casting an accelerant spell or activating a Cephalid Coliseum for the rest of the game and increasing the likelihood of a game loss.
After taking all this into consideration I've concluded that I will be not be playing Dredge this season and will play Burn instead. It has an almost identical kill speed (Turn 4 the majority of the time, with Turn 5 and Turn 3 kills occurring only slightly less frequently), never mulligans itself to an automatic loss (which is something Dredge did 15% to 30% of the time), is unaffected by graveyard hate, has no vulnerability to Wasteland, and is much more resilient to counter magic due to the redundancy of 40 out of the 60 cards in Burn doing exactly the same thing (if they counter one of your burn spells then there's 39 more where that came from). I still love playing Dredge, it's a marvelously fun deck to play, but it's various weaknesses and consistency issues make it a deck that I wouldn't be able to feel confident in if I was to bring it to a tournament. That said, if anyone here would like to give Dredge a try but doesn't have a deck to play yet I will be selling my complete Dredge deck and sideboard for $200 shipped (all cards in near mint condition) to fund the purchase of Burn. Feel free to send me a PM about it if your interested! To the rest of you guys and gals, may your mulligans be few and your dredges productive.
Tireless Tribe DR Dredge, with a FKZ and Sphinx of Lost Truths MD, plays out much more like a combo deck. Setting up a turn 2 accelerant allows a single Cabal Therapy to fire (two if you're really lucky), which makes enough creatures for DR ---> Sphinx, dredging the rest of the deck and killing with FKZ. Either that, or killing with FKZ directly after the first Therapy.
It sounds convoluted compared to the pure consistency of the Quadlazer, but hey. YMMV. It certainly works for me.
I've been out of the Magic scene for a while but this Saturday I'll be heading to a tournament again for the first time in quite a while, and of course packing Dredge with Tireless Tribe and DR as well. I was never much a fan of Quadlazer builds myself, as I too prefer to play Dredge like a high speed combo deck and pulling out FKZ wins as quickly as possible. Game 1 at least, it doesn't usually go quite so smoothly in games 2 and 3 as I'm sure you all know. I'm going to be packing the same list I played 6 months or so ago when I last fielded it, but swapping Angel of Despair for Ashen Rider since it's an obvious new improvement.
Speaking of new improvements, I wanted to ask what the consensus is among those playing the main deck Dread Return package on Sphinx of Lost Truths versus Griselbrand? I've always played 3 Dread Return plus 1 Flame-Kin Zealot and 1 Iona as my main DR targets, but I'm starting to wonder if there might be some merit to running Sphinx or the big black demon along side Flame-Kin and moving Iona to the sideboard. I think Iona could easily replace Elesh Norn in the board, as they serve pretty much the same purpose. I have had more than a few circumstances where I had a Zealot plus a DR or two in the yard but not enough bridges or Narcomeobas in play to return the Zealot for lethal, and I'm wondering if maybe main decking a dredge accelerator target like Sphinx of Lost Truths or Griselbrand might be a good idea. Griselbrand seems to be the popular choice, but thinking back on how many last second Flame-Kin Zealot wins I've pulled off against aggro and Burn decks (and there is a LOT of Burn in my meta) the whole "pay 7 life" thing makes me really nervous. I can just imagine the response of "Okay. With the first trigger on the stack: Lightning Bolt you, sac two lands, Fireblast you." and that's game. Also, given how much life we sometimes end up paying to Tarnished Citadel and City of Brass (especially in games 2/3) I can imagine getting myself into lots of situations in which paying 7 life isn't going to be an option. I feel like if I was going to play one of these two guys in place of Iona that the Sphinx would be the better choice, but what do you guys who play a main deck Dread Return package think? Does a dredging accelerator like Sphinx of Lost Truths or Griselbrand help you pull out faster and more consistent wins? And if so, which of the two do you prefer?
Waste Not is certainly a cool and very powerful card, and at first glance it does look like it would be right at home in Pox. The problem with it though is that it doesn't do anything on it's own, and in Legacy you can rarely afford to run a card that doesn't do anything by itself unless you're playing a combo deck. In a control deck like Pox there's always the chance that you could draw Waste Not in a situation where it wouldn't do anything at all, and whatever you take out for it is going to be a card that actually does something on it's own.
To give you an example, here's my mono black Pox list that's proven quite successful over the last few years...
Looking at the main deck, what would be the most likely things to remove for a set of Waste Not? Either Bloodghast or The Rack, but most likely Bloodghast since all it does is attack and occasionally provide creature removal by forcing the opponent to block. It also keeps the mana curve nice and even by pulling the Bloodghasts, and The Rack is often essential for taking out opposing Planeswalkers, so if I were to play Waste Not the Bloodghasts are what would come out for them.
Now lets look at some examples of situations Waste Not might come up in place of Bloodghast. Most often Bloodghasts sit in my hand until they're discarded to Liliana or a one of eight Pox effects, at which point I'd then play a land and put them into play for free. Obviously we don't want to be discarding our Waste Nots so that option is out. However, they are certainly a stronger turn 2 play to hard cast (or a turn 1 play of off a Dark Ritual) and following it up with one or more of the deck's 19 discard effects on turn 3 would be very strong and potentially lead to some early game blowouts.
However, Pox tends to have the early game under control pretty well most the time without the need for any additional mana acceleration, token production, or card draw. That is not to say that any of those are bad things, card draw especially is something Pox could greatly benefit from, but the point is that in most match ups those things aren't needed in the early game. With 19 ways of making the opponent discard and 17 ways to kill their creatures early game control isn't a problem here. What is occasionally a problem is finding ways to win the game after decimating the opponent's hand and board state. My list runs an exceptionally large number of threats to win the game with compared to most Pox lists, 15 total, and even I sometimes find myself short on ways to kill the opponent after disrupting their plans. So when the board state is wrecked and both myself and the opponent are in top deck mode, which would I rather draw? A Bloodghast that can come in with haste and start swinging or a Waste Not that is going to sit there on the field doing nothing until I draw a discard spell while the opponent actually has a creature left in their hand to make them pitch so I can get something to attack with?
I think that latter scenario is going to be the reason why Waste Not just isn't good enough for Pox. It's a very cool card, and one that looks like a lot of fun to play, but I think it just comes down to the fact that whatever you would take out of any well tuned Pox deck to fit it in would be something that is already performing an essential function for the deck and can do it on it's own without the need for other cards to make it work.
In short: Waste Not is a situationally good card, and in Legacy we rarely have the luxury of playing situationally good cards.
Azusa, Lost but Seeking - I like high speed play, making a lot of mana very quickly and having a lot of things to do every turn. Between the color green and artifact/colorless options there's not much I could want to do that I can't do. Fast mana, big threats, card draw, targeted and sweeper removal. For me Azusa really does it all.
I love Howl of the Night Pack in my Azusa deck. It's great to have diverse threats I think. There are some single creature threats like Eldrazi, Vorinclex, and Blightsteel Colossus, and some token based threats like Rampaging Baloths, Avenger of Zendikar, Wolfbriar Elemental, Ant Queen, Beacon of Creation, and Howl of the Night Pack. It's just about diversifying your threats. If your opponents have a lot of targeted removal than tokens are a good plan (especially if you can tutor up Kamahl, Fist of Krosa to give them overrun or Vigor to make them essentially indestructible during combat) and if they're running a lot of sweepers then indestructible single card threats like Ulamog or Blightsteel Colossus make a nice win condition.
I was never a fan of Waiting in the Weeds due to the need to be almost completely untapped to make it useful and the potential to give your opponents some tokens if any of them are running green, but the other popular token production options I really like. And Howl of the Night Pack is definitely one of them!
No idea what's going on in Standard or Modern, but here's my speculations (more like what I'd like to see and think is reasonable to have happen) in Legacy and EDH...
Legacy : Unban Black Vise or Mind Twist (possibly both)
EDH : Unban Primeval Titan (I don't know a single person locally who was happy about this card being banned in the first place)
So far the only thing in the set thats even remotely excited me is Skullcrack. I see it potentially being able to take over one of the 2 CMC slots in Legacy Burn, but other than that I've yet to see anything I'd like to play from this set. It's all pretty high mana costed stuff geared towards EDH and Standard, and there hasn't been a lot in the 4 CMC and under range that would be of interest to me (I.E. Legacy playable cards).
Thanks for the advice Lormador! I think I'll be filling my empty slots with Anarchy for the time being and seeing what my meta looks like, then re-tailoring those slots to my meta if needed.
Quick question though : "What's the standard mana base look like for Goblins with a Black/Green splash at this point?"
As far as I can tell the deck needs at least 10 sources for Black/Green to be able to get them consistently (8 fetches + 2 to 3 on color duals) and there doesn't seem to be any way to fit that many in without dropping Cavern of Souls or Rishadan Port. I've been thinking of splashing a color and I was wondering what the general consensus on which land to drop for a splash was? As much as I love uncounterability I'd almost be tempted to drop Cavern rather than Port, as Port does so much work for us and I'm already struggling to consistently cycle Gempalm Incinerator or activate Siege-Gang Commander with my mana base of 4 Wasteland, 4 Rishadan Port, 4 Cavern of Souls, and 11 Mountain. The deck feels like it could really use some more on color sources for activating abilities and casting sideboard cards.
Hey everyone
It's been a while since I've played Goblins in a tournament and I've been thinking it might be time to the good old gobos off the shelf and start running them again, but I could use a little advice about what to fill a couple sideboard slots with for the current meta.
I'm playing mono red Goblins and I'm 100% satisfied with my main deck after tweaking, tuning, and testing it to my liking but I have 2x free spots in the sideboard and I'm not sure what the best thing to fill them with is going to be. For reference, here's my list...
For my 2x Free Slots in the sideboard I've been considering either 2x Stingscourger, 2x Pithing Needle, or 2x Anarchy. Here's what I've been thinking about them...
Stingscourger - I've already got 1 Stingsourger main, but additional copies seem like they'd go a long way towards improving any matchup where the opponent is trying to trick big creatures into play through one means or another. Sneak and Show, MUD, Reanimator, etc.
Pithing Needle - Very diverse applications. Shuts down planeswalkers, Pernicious Deed, Sensei's Divining Top, Goblin Charbelcher, Grindstone, Umezawa's Jitte, Words of War, Nomads en-Kor, Thopter Foundry, Zuran Orb, Kuldotha Forgemaster, and probably a dozen other things I don't want to see on the field.
Anarchy - Hoses Maverick in one fell swoop, clears the board of angel tokens from Entreat the Angels or Sigil of the Empty Throne, gets rid of Moat, Solitary Confinement, and other annoying white enchantments.
So what do you guys and gals think would be the best choice to fill the empty sideboard slots with for the current meta? I know Sneak and Show is supposed to be a terrible matchup for us so it seems like some extra Stingscourgers could be good, and Anarchy is another serious silver bullet for some matchups, but Pithing Needle has by far the most diverse applications so thats what I'm leaning towards most right now. Any thoughts on this?
PS: I'd never get rid of Rift Bolt. I dropped my Vexing Devil for space for these reasons.
Agreed. Rift Bolt makes up 4 of our 16 best spells. It's a bolt and it dodges Chalice @ 1, no reason to ever cut it. You do bring up an interesting point though. Now that we've had some time to play with Vexing Devil, what is everyone's opinion of it? In my experience if I play it turn 1 or 2 the vast majority of the time (probably 80% of the time) the opponent just takes 4 and it's a very efficient burn spell. But by the time turn 3 rolls around they tend to have either drawn removal or have creatures to block with and are at a low enough life total that the Devil just hangs around and does nothing.
So I suppose Vexing Devil is one situationally good card we could cut, but when it is good it's so incredibly good that I'm hesitant to cut it. What do you guys think?
I've been eyeing Skullcrack with great interest and it seems playable to me, especially in a meta infested with Deathrite Shaman, Stoneforge into Batterskull, and Scavenging Ooze. I used to play 2x Incinerate in my list last year so while not the most efficient I think it's safe to say that some quantity of 3 damage for 1R spells are playable.
It seems like it'll be great against decks packing the Shaman, Batterskull, Mother of Runes, and Kitchen Finks but I don't think it's going to do a whole lot against Scavenging Ooze or Umezawa's Jitte. With the latter two the opponent can just trigger the Ooze or pop a counter off the Jitte again in response, so some amount of life will still be gained before Skullcrack resolves.
If we're going to cut something to play Skullcrack in a non-fetch build I'd say the best things to cut are going to be either Flame Rift or Keldon Marauders, which is unfortunate because neither of those are things I'd like to cut. Personally I'd be more inclined to cut the Marauders since he's sometimes 5 damage for 1R but much of the time he ends up being only 2 damage, however the stalling option he provides as a blocker often buys us an extra turn we might not otherwise have. Flame Rift on the other hand does do some self damage, but it's always 4 damage for 1R, which is very efficient and gets around Leyline of Sanctity to boot. The self damage can be hazardous in multiples though, thus the reason I only play 2x Flame Rift in my list. Here's the list for reference...
I think my biggest concern about cutting anything for Skullcrack is that whatever I might cut would reduce my effectiveness at fighting through Leyline of Sanctity, and as it stands there are a total of 20 cards in my main deck that can do damage through a Leyline. 4x Goblin Guide, 4x Vexing Devil, 4x Keldon Marauders (he pings you for 2 but hits them for 3), 2x Flame Rift, 3x Price of Progress, and 3x Sulfuric Vortex. I like knowing that one out of every three cards in my deck can aid me in pulling off a win against a Leyline, because they do show up somewhat regularly in my meta. Cutting Marauders would mean not only cutting a potentially 5 damage for 2 mana spell but also dropping my number of outs to Leyline from 20 to 16, and that's not something I'm terribly fond of.
So I guess I'm still on the fence about Skullcrack. It's got good utility, it's relatively okay in terms of efficiency, but anything I might cut to fit it in is something that can do more damage for it's mana cost and is an out to Leyline. I suppose only time and testing will tell if Skullcrack is going to be worth playing.
The same decks I've been playing for years, Burn and Pox. One aggro and one control deck to switch between strategies when I get bored of one of them. Even with an unlimited budget these two relatively cheap decks have always been my favorites to play.
Black Vise, Earthcraft, Mind's Desire, Mind Twist.
Not sure about Mind's Desire, but I'm fairly certain the other three are safe to come off without wrecking the legacy meta. I've been wanting Black Vise off the ban list for a long time (it'd give Burn the speed necessary to compete with most Storm decks), and Mind Twist is another one I think wouldn't be overpowered in Legacy. It's real power isn't when a mono black deck goes casting it turn 1 off a double Dark Ritual, it's BUG deck just flat casts it on turn 6 and tears the opponent's entire hand away with FoW backup. Still though, I think it's safe enough to come off the banned list. And Earthcraft, well... *shrugs* squirrels. There's plenty of 2 card combos in Legacy, I see no problem with there being another one.
Before I give up on Dredge as a competitive deck, think you could share your list with me Lomador? I wouldn't mind testing it out as well, and if I get better results than I'd be happy to field it. I'm in this odd spot where I love playing Dredge but have had horrible luck with it, whereas Burn treats me really well in tournaments but I honestly find it a little boring to play (probably because I've been playing it for the last 4 years and just want to play something different). If I could find a stable and consistent Dredge list I'd definitely field it, I'm just having trouble coming up with a list that suffers from less than a 15% "mull to oblivion" rate.
• Every test game was goldfishing starting on the play. The opponent did absolutely nothing each turn.
• The deck was pile shuffled once then side shuffled 7 times between each game
• The deck was side shuffled 7 times between each mulligan
• I would mulligan any opening hand or Mull to 6 hand that did not contain a dredger, discard outlet (Cabal Therapy included), and dredging accelerant (Careful Study, Breakthrough, or Cephalid Coliseum)
• I would keep any Mull To 5 or less hand that included a dredger and a way to get it into the graveyard (Cabal Therapy included)
That said, here's the lists I tested and the statistics on each:
4 Putrid Imp
3 Tireless Tribe
4 Narcomoeba
4 Ichorid
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Stinkweed Imp
2 Golgari Thug
1 Flame-Kin Zealot
1 Sphinx of Lost Truths
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Careful Study
4 Breakthrough
3 Dread Return
[4 Enchantments]
4 Bridge From Below
[14 Lands]
4 Gemstone Mine
4 City of Brass
4 Cephalid Coliseum
2 Tarnished Citadel
3 Nature's Claim
2 Chain of Vapor
3 Firestorm
2 Ancient Grudge
3 Leyline of the Void
1 Ashen Rider
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
No Mulligan: 6 out of 20 games = 30% of the time
Mulligan to 6: 3 out of 20 games = 15% of the time
Mulligan to 5: 3 out of 20 games = 15% of the time
Mulligan to 4: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
Mulligan to 3: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
Mulligan to Oblivion: 6 out of 20 games = 30% of the time
Win on Turn 1: 0 out of 20 games = 0% of the time
Win on Turn 2: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
Win on Turn 3: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Win on Turn 4: 7 out of 20 games = 35% of the time
Win on Turn 5: 2 out of 20 games = 10% of the time
No Win (mulligan to oblivion, automatic loss): 6 out of 20 games = 30% of the time
4 Putrid Imp
3 Tireless Tribe
4 Narcomoeba
4 Ichorid
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Stinkweed Imp
4 Golgari Thug
1 Flame-Kin Zealot
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Careful Study
4 Breakthrough
2 Dread Return
[4 Enchantments]
4 Bridge From Below
[14 Lands]
4 Gemstone Mine
4 City of Brass
4 Cephalid Coliseum
2 Tarnished Citadel
3 Nature's Claim
2 Chain of Vapor
3 Firestorm
2 Ancient Grudge
3 Leyline of the Void
1 Ashen Rider
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
No Mulligan: 7 out of 20 games = 35% of the time
Mulligan to 6: 5 out of 20 games = 25% of the time
Mulligan to 5: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Mulligan to 4: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
Mulligan to 3: 0 out of 20 games = 0% of the time
Mulligan to Oblivion: 3 out of 20 games = 15% of the time
Win on Turn 1: 0 out of 20 games = 0% of the time
Win on Turn 2: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
Win on Turn 3: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Win on Turn 4: 5 out of 20 games = 25% of the time
Win on Turn 5: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Win on Turn 6: 2 out of 20 games = 10% of the time
Win on Turn 7: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
No Win (mulligan to oblivion, automatic loss): 3 out of 20 games = 15% of the time
4 Putrid Imp
3 Tireless Tribe
4 Narcomoeba
4 Ichorid
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Stinkweed Imp
3 Golgari Thug
1 Flame-Kin Zealot
1 Griselbrand
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Careful Study
4 Breakthrough
2 Dread Return
[4 Enchantments]
4 Bridge From Below
[14 Lands]
4 Gemstone Mine
4 City of Brass
4 Cephalid Coliseum
2 Tarnished Citadel
3 Nature's Claim
2 Chain of Vapor
3 Firestorm
2 Ancient Grudge
3 Leyline of the Void
1 Ashen Rider
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
No Mulligan: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Mulligan to 6: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Mulligan to 5: 5 out of 20 games = 25% of the time
Mulligan to 4: 2 out of 20 games = 10% of the time
Mulligan to 3: 0 out of 20 games = 0% of the time
Mulligan to Oblivion: 5 out of 20 games = 25% of the time
Win on Turn 1: 0 out of 20 games = 0% of the time
Win on Turn 2: 0 out of 20 games = 0% of the time
Win on Turn 3: 3 out of 20 games = 15% of the time
Win on Turn 4: 4 out of 20 games = 20% of the time
Win on Turn 5: 3 out of 20 games = 15% of the time
Win on Turn 6: 2 out of 20 games = 10% of the time
Win on Turn 7: 2 out of 20 games = 10% of the time
Win on Turn 8: 1 out of 20 games = 5% of the time
No Win (mulligan to oblivion, automatic loss): 5 out of 20 games = 25% of the time
Whew! That was a lot of testing! So, what did I learn from all this? A couple interesting things. The first is that the number of Golgari Thugs you run has a big impact on consistency, both in terms of mulligan frequency and the speed at which the deck can kill the opponent. I was sure my 3rd variation of the deck that ran Griselbrand in place of one of the Golgari Thugs would have a faster win speed than the 2nd variation which ran a full set of 4 Thugs and only Flame-Kin Zealot as the lone Dread Return target, but that was not the case. Running 3 Thugs as opposed to 4 resulted in more frequent mulligans and a slower overall deck speed due to the tendency to occasionally whiff on a dredge attempt with Careful Study, Breakthrough, or Cephalid Coliseum.
The lesson to run no less than 4 Golgari Thugs for the best combination of consistency and speed was an important lesson for me, but I think what I really learned from these 60 test games is that I'm not going to be playing Dredge this season. Every variation of the deck lost to itself without the opponent ever having to do anything (by mulliganing itself to an automatic loss) anywhere from 15% to as much as 30% of the time. While deck variation 2, which employed a full set of 4 Thugs, was the most consistent with a "Mulligan to Oblivion" rate of only 15% I still think that's too high of a rate for me to want to field Dredge in a tournament.
I always knew that even the best Dredge builds were pretty inconsistent, but I was under the impression that the deck's typical kill speed was fast enough to offset it's lack of consistency. But my data shows that for every variation of the deck I tested the average kill turn was Turn 4, with Turn 5 kills occurring only slightly less often. In my humble opinion that is simply not fast enough to make a 15% automatic loss rate acceptable. Those kill speeds were also recorded in a goldfish scenario and would have certainly been much slower if there was an opponent interacting with you by putting up blockers. Also worth noting is Dredge's lack of resilience to counter magic. Of the 46 out of 60 games in which the decks did not mulligan themselves to an automatic loss, in 43 of them I was only able to get 1 discard outlet in my opening hand. If that discard outlet was countered I would have been left doing literally nothing for the rest of game. Another issue that should be considered is the deck's vulnerability to Wasteland. With only 14 lands in the deck and all of them being non-basic there is a very good chance that in many matchups your turn 1 land may get Wastelanded, preventing you from casting an accelerant spell or activating a Cephalid Coliseum for the rest of the game and increasing the likelihood of a game loss.
After taking all this into consideration I've concluded that I will be not be playing Dredge this season and will play Burn instead. It has an almost identical kill speed (Turn 4 the majority of the time, with Turn 5 and Turn 3 kills occurring only slightly less frequently), never mulligans itself to an automatic loss (which is something Dredge did 15% to 30% of the time), is unaffected by graveyard hate, has no vulnerability to Wasteland, and is much more resilient to counter magic due to the redundancy of 40 out of the 60 cards in Burn doing exactly the same thing (if they counter one of your burn spells then there's 39 more where that came from). I still love playing Dredge, it's a marvelously fun deck to play, but it's various weaknesses and consistency issues make it a deck that I wouldn't be able to feel confident in if I was to bring it to a tournament. That said, if anyone here would like to give Dredge a try but doesn't have a deck to play yet I will be selling my complete Dredge deck and sideboard for $200 shipped (all cards in near mint condition) to fund the purchase of Burn. Feel free to send me a PM about it if your interested! To the rest of you guys and gals, may your mulligans be few and your dredges productive.
I've been out of the Magic scene for a while but this Saturday I'll be heading to a tournament again for the first time in quite a while, and of course packing Dredge with Tireless Tribe and DR as well. I was never much a fan of Quadlazer builds myself, as I too prefer to play Dredge like a high speed combo deck and pulling out FKZ wins as quickly as possible. Game 1 at least, it doesn't usually go quite so smoothly in games 2 and 3 as I'm sure you all know. I'm going to be packing the same list I played 6 months or so ago when I last fielded it, but swapping Angel of Despair for Ashen Rider since it's an obvious new improvement.
4 Putrid Imp
3 Tireless Tribe
4 Narcomoeba
4 Ichorid
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Stinkweed Imp
2 Golgari Thug
1 Flame-Kin Zealot
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Careful Study
4 Breakthrough
3 Dread Return
[4 Enchantments]
4 Bridge From Below
[14 Lands]
4 Gemstone Mine
4 City of Brass
4 Cephalid Coliseum
2 Tarnished Citadel
3 Nature's Claim
2 Chain of Vapor
3 Firestorm
2 Ancient Grudge
3 Leyline of the Void
1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
1 Ashen Rider
Speaking of new improvements, I wanted to ask what the consensus is among those playing the main deck Dread Return package on Sphinx of Lost Truths versus Griselbrand? I've always played 3 Dread Return plus 1 Flame-Kin Zealot and 1 Iona as my main DR targets, but I'm starting to wonder if there might be some merit to running Sphinx or the big black demon along side Flame-Kin and moving Iona to the sideboard. I think Iona could easily replace Elesh Norn in the board, as they serve pretty much the same purpose. I have had more than a few circumstances where I had a Zealot plus a DR or two in the yard but not enough bridges or Narcomeobas in play to return the Zealot for lethal, and I'm wondering if maybe main decking a dredge accelerator target like Sphinx of Lost Truths or Griselbrand might be a good idea. Griselbrand seems to be the popular choice, but thinking back on how many last second Flame-Kin Zealot wins I've pulled off against aggro and Burn decks (and there is a LOT of Burn in my meta) the whole "pay 7 life" thing makes me really nervous. I can just imagine the response of "Okay. With the first trigger on the stack: Lightning Bolt you, sac two lands, Fireblast you." and that's game. Also, given how much life we sometimes end up paying to Tarnished Citadel and City of Brass (especially in games 2/3) I can imagine getting myself into lots of situations in which paying 7 life isn't going to be an option. I feel like if I was going to play one of these two guys in place of Iona that the Sphinx would be the better choice, but what do you guys who play a main deck Dread Return package think? Does a dredging accelerator like Sphinx of Lost Truths or Griselbrand help you pull out faster and more consistent wins? And if so, which of the two do you prefer?
To give you an example, here's my mono black Pox list that's proven quite successful over the last few years...
3 Liliana of the Veil
[5 Creatures]
4 Bloodghast
1 Nether Spirit
[24 Spells]
4 Dark Ritual
4 Innocent Blood
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Hymn to Tourach
4 Smallpox
4 Pox
4 The Rack
2 Cursed Scroll
[22 Lands]
4 Mishra’s Factory
3 Dakmor Salvage
15 Swamp
1 Darkblast
2 Pithing Needle
3 Ratchet Bomb
2 Syphon Life
3 Engineered Plague
4 Leyline of the Void
Looking at the main deck, what would be the most likely things to remove for a set of Waste Not? Either Bloodghast or The Rack, but most likely Bloodghast since all it does is attack and occasionally provide creature removal by forcing the opponent to block. It also keeps the mana curve nice and even by pulling the Bloodghasts, and The Rack is often essential for taking out opposing Planeswalkers, so if I were to play Waste Not the Bloodghasts are what would come out for them.
Now lets look at some examples of situations Waste Not might come up in place of Bloodghast. Most often Bloodghasts sit in my hand until they're discarded to Liliana or a one of eight Pox effects, at which point I'd then play a land and put them into play for free. Obviously we don't want to be discarding our Waste Nots so that option is out. However, they are certainly a stronger turn 2 play to hard cast (or a turn 1 play of off a Dark Ritual) and following it up with one or more of the deck's 19 discard effects on turn 3 would be very strong and potentially lead to some early game blowouts.
However, Pox tends to have the early game under control pretty well most the time without the need for any additional mana acceleration, token production, or card draw. That is not to say that any of those are bad things, card draw especially is something Pox could greatly benefit from, but the point is that in most match ups those things aren't needed in the early game. With 19 ways of making the opponent discard and 17 ways to kill their creatures early game control isn't a problem here. What is occasionally a problem is finding ways to win the game after decimating the opponent's hand and board state. My list runs an exceptionally large number of threats to win the game with compared to most Pox lists, 15 total, and even I sometimes find myself short on ways to kill the opponent after disrupting their plans. So when the board state is wrecked and both myself and the opponent are in top deck mode, which would I rather draw? A Bloodghast that can come in with haste and start swinging or a Waste Not that is going to sit there on the field doing nothing until I draw a discard spell while the opponent actually has a creature left in their hand to make them pitch so I can get something to attack with?
I think that latter scenario is going to be the reason why Waste Not just isn't good enough for Pox. It's a very cool card, and one that looks like a lot of fun to play, but I think it just comes down to the fact that whatever you would take out of any well tuned Pox deck to fit it in would be something that is already performing an essential function for the deck and can do it on it's own without the need for other cards to make it work.
In short: Waste Not is a situationally good card, and in Legacy we rarely have the luxury of playing situationally good cards.
I was never a fan of Waiting in the Weeds due to the need to be almost completely untapped to make it useful and the potential to give your opponents some tokens if any of them are running green, but the other popular token production options I really like. And Howl of the Night Pack is definitely one of them!
Legacy : Unban Black Vise or Mind Twist (possibly both)
EDH : Unban Primeval Titan (I don't know a single person locally who was happy about this card being banned in the first place)
Quick question though : "What's the standard mana base look like for Goblins with a Black/Green splash at this point?"
As far as I can tell the deck needs at least 10 sources for Black/Green to be able to get them consistently (8 fetches + 2 to 3 on color duals) and there doesn't seem to be any way to fit that many in without dropping Cavern of Souls or Rishadan Port. I've been thinking of splashing a color and I was wondering what the general consensus on which land to drop for a splash was? As much as I love uncounterability I'd almost be tempted to drop Cavern rather than Port, as Port does so much work for us and I'm already struggling to consistently cycle Gempalm Incinerator or activate Siege-Gang Commander with my mana base of 4 Wasteland, 4 Rishadan Port, 4 Cavern of Souls, and 11 Mountain. The deck feels like it could really use some more on color sources for activating abilities and casting sideboard cards.
What's everyones opinion on this?
It's been a while since I've played Goblins in a tournament and I've been thinking it might be time to the good old gobos off the shelf and start running them again, but I could use a little advice about what to fill a couple sideboard slots with for the current meta.
I'm playing mono red Goblins and I'm 100% satisfied with my main deck after tweaking, tuning, and testing it to my liking but I have 2x free spots in the sideboard and I'm not sure what the best thing to fill them with is going to be. For reference, here's my list...
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Goblin Piledriver
3 Mogg War Marshal
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Warchief
2 Goblin Chieftain
4 Goblin Ringleader
1 Krenko, Mob Boss
2 Siege-Gang Commander
4 Gempalm Incinerator
1 Stingscourger
4 Aether Vial
[23 Lands]
4 Wasteland
4 Rishadan Port
4 Cavern of Souls
11 Mountain
3 Tormod's Crypt
3 Pyrokinesis
3 Thorn of Amethyst
2 Free Slots
2 Tuktuk Scrapper
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
1 Goblin King
For my 2x Free Slots in the sideboard I've been considering either 2x Stingscourger, 2x Pithing Needle, or 2x Anarchy. Here's what I've been thinking about them...
Stingscourger - I've already got 1 Stingsourger main, but additional copies seem like they'd go a long way towards improving any matchup where the opponent is trying to trick big creatures into play through one means or another. Sneak and Show, MUD, Reanimator, etc.
Pithing Needle - Very diverse applications. Shuts down planeswalkers, Pernicious Deed, Sensei's Divining Top, Goblin Charbelcher, Grindstone, Umezawa's Jitte, Words of War, Nomads en-Kor, Thopter Foundry, Zuran Orb, Kuldotha Forgemaster, and probably a dozen other things I don't want to see on the field.
Anarchy - Hoses Maverick in one fell swoop, clears the board of angel tokens from Entreat the Angels or Sigil of the Empty Throne, gets rid of Moat, Solitary Confinement, and other annoying white enchantments.
So what do you guys and gals think would be the best choice to fill the empty sideboard slots with for the current meta? I know Sneak and Show is supposed to be a terrible matchup for us so it seems like some extra Stingscourgers could be good, and Anarchy is another serious silver bullet for some matchups, but Pithing Needle has by far the most diverse applications so thats what I'm leaning towards most right now. Any thoughts on this?
Agreed. Rift Bolt makes up 4 of our 16 best spells. It's a bolt and it dodges Chalice @ 1, no reason to ever cut it. You do bring up an interesting point though. Now that we've had some time to play with Vexing Devil, what is everyone's opinion of it? In my experience if I play it turn 1 or 2 the vast majority of the time (probably 80% of the time) the opponent just takes 4 and it's a very efficient burn spell. But by the time turn 3 rolls around they tend to have either drawn removal or have creatures to block with and are at a low enough life total that the Devil just hangs around and does nothing.
So I suppose Vexing Devil is one situationally good card we could cut, but when it is good it's so incredibly good that I'm hesitant to cut it. What do you guys think?
It seems like it'll be great against decks packing the Shaman, Batterskull, Mother of Runes, and Kitchen Finks but I don't think it's going to do a whole lot against Scavenging Ooze or Umezawa's Jitte. With the latter two the opponent can just trigger the Ooze or pop a counter off the Jitte again in response, so some amount of life will still be gained before Skullcrack resolves.
If we're going to cut something to play Skullcrack in a non-fetch build I'd say the best things to cut are going to be either Flame Rift or Keldon Marauders, which is unfortunate because neither of those are things I'd like to cut. Personally I'd be more inclined to cut the Marauders since he's sometimes 5 damage for 1R but much of the time he ends up being only 2 damage, however the stalling option he provides as a blocker often buys us an extra turn we might not otherwise have. Flame Rift on the other hand does do some self damage, but it's always 4 damage for 1R, which is very efficient and gets around Leyline of Sanctity to boot. The self damage can be hazardous in multiples though, thus the reason I only play 2x Flame Rift in my list. Here's the list for reference...
4 Goblin Guide
4 Vexing Devil
4 Keldon Marauders
[25 Spells]
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Chain Lightning
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt
2 Flame Rift
4 Fireblast
3 Price of Progress
3 Sulfuric Vortex
[20 Lands]
17 Mountain
3 Barbarian Ring
3 Pithing Needle
2 Smash to Smithereens
3 Volcanic Fallout
3 Faerie Macabre
4 Mindbreak Trap
I think my biggest concern about cutting anything for Skullcrack is that whatever I might cut would reduce my effectiveness at fighting through Leyline of Sanctity, and as it stands there are a total of 20 cards in my main deck that can do damage through a Leyline. 4x Goblin Guide, 4x Vexing Devil, 4x Keldon Marauders (he pings you for 2 but hits them for 3), 2x Flame Rift, 3x Price of Progress, and 3x Sulfuric Vortex. I like knowing that one out of every three cards in my deck can aid me in pulling off a win against a Leyline, because they do show up somewhat regularly in my meta. Cutting Marauders would mean not only cutting a potentially 5 damage for 2 mana spell but also dropping my number of outs to Leyline from 20 to 16, and that's not something I'm terribly fond of.
So I guess I'm still on the fence about Skullcrack. It's got good utility, it's relatively okay in terms of efficiency, but anything I might cut to fit it in is something that can do more damage for it's mana cost and is an out to Leyline. I suppose only time and testing will tell if Skullcrack is going to be worth playing.
Not sure about Mind's Desire, but I'm fairly certain the other three are safe to come off without wrecking the legacy meta. I've been wanting Black Vise off the ban list for a long time (it'd give Burn the speed necessary to compete with most Storm decks), and Mind Twist is another one I think wouldn't be overpowered in Legacy. It's real power isn't when a mono black deck goes casting it turn 1 off a double Dark Ritual, it's BUG deck just flat casts it on turn 6 and tears the opponent's entire hand away with FoW backup. Still though, I think it's safe enough to come off the banned list. And Earthcraft, well... *shrugs* squirrels. There's plenty of 2 card combos in Legacy, I see no problem with there being another one.