^^ Thanks, Jeff. Miss those set EV posts like we used to see. So many anymore don't seem to realize how the EV actually does vary set to set especially in the short-term which is what most of us are concerned about. Think the highest I ever recall is the ~two month period when Return to Ravnica floated in the $110-$130 range.
Also wanted to add that Torrential Gearhulk Masterpiece hit $100... so yeah it is possible
Torrential Gearhulk has spiked also and is pretty much equal with Verdurous Gearhulk (which is also seeing a good amount of play including the day1 top decks).
Kaladesh EV is crazy, crazy high right now. The set is all over the Pro Tour. So much for Masterpieces holding down the value of the rares/Mythics at least in the short-term. This is an example of a great set like Kaladesh's demand creating value where a lackluster set like Battle for Zendikar was held back by Expeditions but was held further back by few tournament staples.
Even if the Green one does hit that high, I doubt that the Invention will hit $100. People know that it's not long-term busted. It may end up as an EDH card, and it's certainly not unplayable, but it's just a big dude with Trample. Maybe it makes a couple big dudes, but it doesn't scream "Value!" like certain other cards. No matter how much the Battle Lands were played in Standard, they were still the worst Expeditions, and everyone knew it. People picking up cards to play Standard will want the budget option, not the Cadillac.
The Green Gearhulk Invention has already doubled in value. It was preselling for $30-$35 and was selling earlier this week for $65-70 (currently it's @ ~$60). I agree it's a bit of a long-shot but most "ceilings" are... again this is IF the card starts to beat the hype and sees lots of top8 play @ Pro Tour/post rotation/etc. Heck, there's probably some who would make a case that the ceiling is actually a big higher than $100... as it's most certainly not just a big dude with trample - it's value city plus a trample dude but that discussion is for another thread.
Yes the Gearhulks are in a similar position to the battle lands, but at the same time they are seeing much more volatility and upward price movement. Probably because the battle lands were super unexciting and everyone knew what they were when they hit the scene.
The inventions like Sol Ring and Mana Crypt and Mana Vault will always be in high demand, but I can't see a lot of people ever wanting to pay much for a masterpiece Gearhulk or Solemn Simalcrum.
^^ All true. It's the price which is the telling factor. Seems like maybe they were priced a bit high which surprises me as I thought they were low being there are harder to get with 30 different ones.
The Gearhulks are interesting if any reach > $15 which the Green almost did and might at some point. If any do get in the $15-25 range then the Masterpiece will almost certainly reach close to $100. With that said, it's a limited time only as they will most certainly drop post rotation though I do wonder if they start to appeal to casuals more and more similar to how Titans started slow and ended strong both in Standard and in more casual formats like Commander.
Smuggler's Copter has to have the oddest price curve ever. I think what most surprised me is that it didn't double from ~$7 to $15 until last Wednesday. Any other time a card sees a huge amount of play on a Saturday/Sunday tournament the card spikes BY Monday (which causes many vendors to cancel orders). With Copter, you had a good 48+ hours to get orders in before the next double-up.
Also interesting peak supply (AVAILABLE; which is what I was referring to on last page) of Masterpieces is still going up. EBay is up ~+15% and tcgplayer seems slightly higher too. A week after Expeditions hit the supply available was lower and never reached the "peak" it did on release day. Point being it SEEMS Masterpieces aren't selling as much as Expeditions though possible it's other factors. We are already seeing price adjustments across the board (believe the Green Gearhulk is the only positive gainer). This is going to impact the "spot" EV of the set which is what we are really concerned about. The whole reaching equilibrium doesn't matter to us right now as we are still figuring out what is in demand and thus spikes like Copter happen.
Sorry if this has been brought up before (probably has) but never been to this thread and asking this for a friend -
What consensus did people come to with Bedlam Reveler in burn? Specifically naya (with nacatl).
Thanks in advance
For the most part by the time you have enough instants/sorceries in the graveyard to make casting Reveler possible your better option is to just cast a burn spell instead for lethal.
I don't think that's the right argument against Bedlam Reveler being it sees more play right now in Legacy which is a much faster format. What seems to be holding it back in Modern is the instant/sorcery concentration and casting cost of those to a degree (Legacy is full of 1cc or free like Fireblast) so you can use them immediately after drawing. Until we get more 1cc/free viable burn spells and tone down the creatures very slightly, Reveler isn't going to cut it.
There were 32 copies of Smuggler's Copter in the top 8 that means every deck played 4 of the same card. When is the last time there were 32 copies of a card in standard at the top 8 of an SCG open?
Interesting question. But I don't think you can take much from it being almost always aggro does well post every rotation. Also Copter fits into non-aggro too so it definitely double-dipped this weekend.
Morning of Day 1 of Kaladesh release and prices are already dipping. 20% haircut on almost everything. Chandra is $30 and dropping.
Also worthy to mention that BFZ is one of the lowest EV sets I've ever seen. I haven't crunched the numbers myself, but Gideon is down to $14 tcglow. The next most expensive mythic is $10 for Ulamog, and then $4 for Ob Nixlis. Most expensive rare is Prairie Stream at $2. Ridiculous. Expedition depression is real.
While your point has some merit. It's day 1... PEAK supply. And technically Expeditions/Masterpieces are part of the EV so really it's pretty good.
Call me a bear but I think Kaladesh without Masterpieces with have a solid value - not a ton of great rares but a ton of great mythics. The Gearhulks are sooooooooooooooo under-rated and we haven't even opened the can of worms that is the energy mechanic in Standard yet. Anyone who thought the new Chandra would be more than $35 without huge play in Modern/Vintage is smoking some really good stuff so it seemed obvious she would settle down to $20-35 depending on how much she's played.
Preordering the Gearhulk inventions is already paying off... I can't believe how low those were pre-selling for especially with there being 30 different ones so supply on each is going to be lower than expeditions (being the odds are still 1:144).
Epic faceplant on those PW tutors wiz. They'd still be awful even if they could get ANY PW with chandra/nissa in the name, but as they are... geez.
Could not disagree more. Can't believe these aren't getting more attention. They both are incredibly powerful with useful spells that also get you another TUTORED FREE card of which might be the most powerful card in your deck (especially the Chandra). Those tutors are by far the most exciting cards spoiled in this thread. These days we usually get 4-5cc tutors and now we get free removal or ramp, yes, PLEASE.
She's a monster in standard, so I imagine she'll remain the most expensive mythic of the set. I think it's likely she'll pop up now-and-then in modern, although that won't keep her price high.
It's funny. It took a good 8+ months before LotV become a Modern staple and LotV only saw play in Standard in Solar Flare until right before rotation. Everyone just assumes it was always a power house but even that card took many a while to realize it's power. We are still far from realizing exactly where this Liliana will end up in Modern and the fresher Standard rotations.
25 life for 7 mana or 6 life for 0 mana (or both) isn't the "worst rare in the set." I'm not trying to say this card is great, but it's not complete crap
Um, think I'd rather have Ornithopter than 75% of those... BEAUTIFUL art but mediocre masterpieces this time.
Also wanted to add that Torrential Gearhulk Masterpiece hit $100... so yeah it is possible
Kaladesh EV is crazy, crazy high right now. The set is all over the Pro Tour. So much for Masterpieces holding down the value of the rares/Mythics at least in the short-term. This is an example of a great set like Kaladesh's demand creating value where a lackluster set like Battle for Zendikar was held back by Expeditions but was held further back by few tournament staples.
The Green Gearhulk Invention has already doubled in value. It was preselling for $30-$35 and was selling earlier this week for $65-70 (currently it's @ ~$60). I agree it's a bit of a long-shot but most "ceilings" are... again this is IF the card starts to beat the hype and sees lots of top8 play @ Pro Tour/post rotation/etc. Heck, there's probably some who would make a case that the ceiling is actually a big higher than $100... as it's most certainly not just a big dude with trample - it's value city plus a trample dude but that discussion is for another thread.
Yes the Gearhulks are in a similar position to the battle lands, but at the same time they are seeing much more volatility and upward price movement. Probably because the battle lands were super unexciting and everyone knew what they were when they hit the scene.
^^ All true. It's the price which is the telling factor. Seems like maybe they were priced a bit high which surprises me as I thought they were low being there are harder to get with 30 different ones.
The Gearhulks are interesting if any reach > $15 which the Green almost did and might at some point. If any do get in the $15-25 range then the Masterpiece will almost certainly reach close to $100. With that said, it's a limited time only as they will most certainly drop post rotation though I do wonder if they start to appeal to casuals more and more similar to how Titans started slow and ended strong both in Standard and in more casual formats like Commander.
Also interesting peak supply (AVAILABLE; which is what I was referring to on last page) of Masterpieces is still going up. EBay is up ~+15% and tcgplayer seems slightly higher too. A week after Expeditions hit the supply available was lower and never reached the "peak" it did on release day. Point being it SEEMS Masterpieces aren't selling as much as Expeditions though possible it's other factors. We are already seeing price adjustments across the board (believe the Green Gearhulk is the only positive gainer). This is going to impact the "spot" EV of the set which is what we are really concerned about. The whole reaching equilibrium doesn't matter to us right now as we are still figuring out what is in demand and thus spikes like Copter happen.
I don't think that's the right argument against Bedlam Reveler being it sees more play right now in Legacy which is a much faster format. What seems to be holding it back in Modern is the instant/sorcery concentration and casting cost of those to a degree (Legacy is full of 1cc or free like Fireblast) so you can use them immediately after drawing. Until we get more 1cc/free viable burn spells and tone down the creatures very slightly, Reveler isn't going to cut it.
Interesting question. But I don't think you can take much from it being almost always aggro does well post every rotation. Also Copter fits into non-aggro too so it definitely double-dipped this weekend.
While your point has some merit. It's day 1... PEAK supply. And technically Expeditions/Masterpieces are part of the EV so really it's pretty good.
Call me a bear but I think Kaladesh without Masterpieces with have a solid value - not a ton of great rares but a ton of great mythics. The Gearhulks are sooooooooooooooo under-rated and we haven't even opened the can of worms that is the energy mechanic in Standard yet. Anyone who thought the new Chandra would be more than $35 without huge play in Modern/Vintage is smoking some really good stuff so it seemed obvious she would settle down to $20-35 depending on how much she's played.
Could not disagree more. Can't believe these aren't getting more attention. They both are incredibly powerful with useful spells that also get you another TUTORED FREE card of which might be the most powerful card in your deck (especially the Chandra). Those tutors are by far the most exciting cards spoiled in this thread. These days we usually get 4-5cc tutors and now we get free removal or ramp, yes, PLEASE.
Bingo. Ranger's Guile has seen a ton of play and this card is even BETTER.
Um, they did that in the original Zendikar Expeditions... ...
Yes, that Mana Crypt might be the best looking MTG card I've EVER seen.
It's funny. It took a good 8+ months before LotV become a Modern staple and LotV only saw play in Standard in Solar Flare until right before rotation. Everyone just assumes it was always a power house but even that card took many a while to realize it's power. We are still far from realizing exactly where this Liliana will end up in Modern and the fresher Standard rotations.