Snapcaster isn't tied to Innistrad, it's tied to the flashback ability. Flashback isn't evergreen, so they can only reprint Snapcaster in a block if flashback returns, which is probably several years off.
I just wanted to jump in here and say that I don't think 3 mythics are guaranteed. 3 mythics are what you should receive on average. But if every single box contained at least 3 mythics... wouldn't that mean that every single box MUST contain 3 (exactly 3) mythics? Since the print run demands that there be an exact mean of 3 mythics per box, if every box had at least 3, then every box must also have at MOST 3.
It would be roughly 2.975 mythics per box, not 3. The print run produces exactly 15 mythics per 121 boosters, which is just slightly under three per box.
If you opened 121 perfectly-collated boxes, 118 of them would have three mythics and the other 3 would have two.
Are empty Beta starter decks worth anything? I happened upon a stack of Unlimited/Revised cards about a month ago, and the container they came in also held a whole bunch of empty Beta, Unlimited, and Revised starter decks, most of which had the rulebooks included. No Beta cards, just the boxes.
I assume that in Modern Masters 2015, each Rare (R) will be twice as common as each Mythic Rare (MR). Maybe it is too simple and naive to conclude that popular MRs will drop by half of what popular Rs would drop by, either in absolute value or proportional value.
Ignoring foils for now... 53 rares and 15 mythics... with mythics being in 1 of 8 packs and rares in 7 of 8. So on average you need to open 120 packs to get one of each mythic... in which you get 105 rares or roughly 2 of each rare. So yeah... 2 to 1 is a good estimate.
For future reference, "1 in 8 mythics/7 in 8 rares" is the estimate and "2 of each rare for 1 of each mythic" is the exact figure. Large sets have 53 rares because that's how many it takes to fill the 121-card printing sheets after you reserve 15 slots for the mythics.
Every item on that list except 1 depends on some charismatic of the meta to be present in order for it to be useful, and that 1 is the dual lands.
Force of will is good against fast combo, but against other archetypes, it's actually not that great. People can main board it, because it's still not dead against aggro and attrition decks, but if something happens to fast combo, it will go out of favor
You're also betting that Force of Will never gets reprinted. Unlike most of that list, Force of Will isn't actually on the Reserve List.
Duals are a very good choice, but I don't believe they're entirely risk-free. The problem with dual lands is that while they can't be reprinted, it's entirely possible that Wizards will print something that's either close enough or actually *better* than the duals to flood the casual market. It's not likely, but with the overwhelming amount of demand there would be for something like that, I'd say the chance of Wizards caving in on that particular cash grab is non-zero.
From his list, I'd go with Time Walk, although I think I'd personally prefer a Mox. The status provided by being a part of the Power Nine is something that can never be taken away by any sort of reprint.
Chapin was not in good form in this match. A few turns earlier, with his hands appearing to be shaking, he played a temple and scryed, putting a card on the bottom (could anyone tell what that card was?). He then cast Read The Bones and skipped the scry to put the top 2 cards directly in his hand. The two cards were Elspeth and a land. He then played the land (his second of the turn) and cast Elspeth. Did anyone else notice his hands shaking? He looked nervous to me.
Patrick Chapin's hands shake 100% of the time. I forget exactly why, but it's some sort of physical condition. It's certainly not a tell.
These are the cards worth more than a buck at SCG prices:
Thunderbreak Regent ($10.85 and sold out)
Surrak the Hunt Caller ($4.55)
Outpost Siege ($3.49)
Temple of Abandon ($1.75)
Crater's Claws ($1.16)
Mistcutter Hydra ($1.05)
At SCG prices, Thunderbreak Regent would have to be worth $12.99 to make the Event Deck worth the $24.99 MSRP if we ignore everything less than a buck.
6-8 mythics is far too high. Khans and Dragons both have (non-foil) mythics in 12.39% of all booster packs, slightly under Fate Reforged's 12.5%. Given that booster boxes have 36 packs each, this puts the expected number of mythics in a box at just under 4.5 for Khans and Dragons (and exactly 4.5 for Fate Reforged).
What you're seeing for Dragons is the expected number; you're either misremembering the prior two sets or were extremely lucky.
If they reprint him in Modern Masters II I wonder how they'll make a cycle of the hybrid 3cc work out.
Looking at MMI, they won't be holding themselves to a strict cycle. MMI had 21 multicolored cards - every color combination had one gold card and one hybrid card save BR (which got two hybrids) and UR (which got two gold cards), plus Progenitus. If they couldn't find a BR gold card they wanted more than Demigod of Revenge last time, who's to say they don't do the same with Fulminator Mage this time?
I collect complete sets, and was using cheap 3-ring binders I picked up at Wal-Mart, but after discovering that the cards on the bottom row were all getting bent, I started switching to these. They're not great, but I've been keeping an eye on them, and nothing's gotten damaged yet. I'd probably try Ultra-Pros instead, but since these are about half the price at my LCS ($11 vs $20), the cheapskate in me wins out every time.
> Mageta had a few tournament appearances and has gone on to be a Commander staple.
"Commander staple" is a...generous description, at best, for the 32nd-most-popular mono-white commander that's in fewer Commander decks than Alexi's Cloak.
It would be roughly 2.975 mythics per box, not 3. The print run produces exactly 15 mythics per 121 boosters, which is just slightly under three per box.
If you opened 121 perfectly-collated boxes, 118 of them would have three mythics and the other 3 would have two.
For future reference, "1 in 8 mythics/7 in 8 rares" is the estimate and "2 of each rare for 1 of each mythic" is the exact figure. Large sets have 53 rares because that's how many it takes to fill the 121-card printing sheets after you reserve 15 slots for the mythics.
You're also betting that Force of Will never gets reprinted. Unlike most of that list, Force of Will isn't actually on the Reserve List.
Duals are a very good choice, but I don't believe they're entirely risk-free. The problem with dual lands is that while they can't be reprinted, it's entirely possible that Wizards will print something that's either close enough or actually *better* than the duals to flood the casual market. It's not likely, but with the overwhelming amount of demand there would be for something like that, I'd say the chance of Wizards caving in on that particular cash grab is non-zero.
From his list, I'd go with Time Walk, although I think I'd personally prefer a Mox. The status provided by being a part of the Power Nine is something that can never be taken away by any sort of reprint.
Given that over half of all rares get printed as pre-release foils anymore, I'm not sure that has much of an effect.
Patrick Chapin's hands shake 100% of the time. I forget exactly why, but it's some sort of physical condition. It's certainly not a tell.
Thunderbreak Regent ($10.85 and sold out)
Surrak the Hunt Caller ($4.55)
Outpost Siege ($3.49)
Temple of Abandon ($1.75)
Crater's Claws ($1.16)
Mistcutter Hydra ($1.05)
At SCG prices, Thunderbreak Regent would have to be worth $12.99 to make the Event Deck worth the $24.99 MSRP if we ignore everything less than a buck.
What you're seeing for Dragons is the expected number; you're either misremembering the prior two sets or were extremely lucky.
Looking at MMI, they won't be holding themselves to a strict cycle. MMI had 21 multicolored cards - every color combination had one gold card and one hybrid card save BR (which got two hybrids) and UR (which got two gold cards), plus Progenitus. If they couldn't find a BR gold card they wanted more than Demigod of Revenge last time, who's to say they don't do the same with Fulminator Mage this time?
There were exactly two "true" Abzan decks in the top 8, and they played each other in the quarterfinals, so I'm pretty sure that statement is wrong.