@yriel
Think less about the approach as simple, than as the first thing you need to understand in any match. Misunderstand your role, and you are already at a disadvantage.
After that, it is helpful to understand the 5 archetypes in Magic (Aggro, Tempo or Aggro-Control, Midrange Aggro, Midrange Control, Control and Hybrid Control) and the two types of finishes (progressive and combo), in order to get a deeper understanding of how your deck relates to other decks, and the weaknesses in each match. Adrian Sullivan, one of the foremost theorists of MTG has a very interesting article recently that talks about this, and he has links to defining metatheory articles written by himself and others.
Then one has to consider deck-building: what kind of cards work together (e.g. Why Ponder in one deck, but Preordain in another?), manabases, synergy (and non-synergy), etc.
Finally, there is no replacement for knowledge of the meta (Crackdown is a perfect example, as if Affinity was the only really artifact deck, it isn't good, but if multiple artifact decks are strong, e.g. now there is Hardened Scales and Whir Prison in Tier 1, Affinity and Lantern in Tier 2, it is certainly much better) and practice (sequencing, a skill that even linear aggro deck players have to master; when to take a hit and when not, when to cast draw spells, when to fetch, when to counter, when to play on one's turn and when to play reactively, etc.)
All of which, in the end, feeds back into how well you understand your role in the match. I presented the simplest form of the idea, but the full content of "knowing your role" or "Who is the beatdown" involves a great deal of learning and application. Not that the best players are theory people, but they have at least intuitively absorbed all of these elements into their play.
@yriel
In thinking about the SB, my first question is always "Who is the beatdown?" or, what is our role in the match. I'm not so much justifying my points, as helping you see how I think about the matches as I have played these a lot with this deck. Someone like SpiderSpace might have a different view and he is much better and more experienced with the deck as a streamer/heavy MTGO player.
With Tron, they are control and we are the beatdown. Turn 2 3/3 is better than a removal spell, especially as it functions as a de facto removal spell by making them unable to attack. If Thragtusk is their only out, we are in good shape.
With Burn, they are the beatdown and we are control, at least in the first few turns, but their creatures don't size well against ours, so Chalice + creatures is our best solution to them, and somewhere around turn 3-4, we should become the beatdown. I will say, I have lost 1 match, and only 1 match, to Burn in some 30+ matches. As long as you take Dismember out, you are doing it right.
Against Scales, they are the beatdown and we are control, at least early. Stony is the absolutely most important card, but Chalice is also super strong. Crackdown does seem like GG for them and if that is prominent in your meta, it seems like a fine inclusion.
@yriel
Most of it looks fine. I'm not a fan of Consulate Crackdown, but hey, test it out.
The three I see issues with are:
Tron :
+ 1 cast out, 1 declaration in stone, 2 stony silence, 1 aven mindcensor, 1 consulate crackdown
- 3 dismember, 3 eldrazi displacer
You need aggression and Displacer deals with Wurmcoil Engine just fine, whereas Dec in Stone is meh. I also don't think Consulate Crackdown is good enough here. Cast Out is also only so-so.
This and Robots seems like the match for Crackdown, but 3WW is a long way off. I also think that Thalia GoT is really good here, especially if you can do that or Chalice turn 1. Finks is ok and Ratchet Bomb is a bit of a non-bo with Stony.
yriel, this will help us next time, just list the cards all in a column, highlight the list and click the Deck icon. Can you put +x number in, -x number out for your SB listing? That would also be helpful, as I would not assume you mean +all, -all in each case.
I prefer 2 Dromoka's Command to the 2 PtE in the sideboard, but otherwise that is my exact list. DC is there for Burn, UWR Control and the new BUG combo deck. I just like it's utility a little better.
How is Carnage Tyrant unfair, at least in the context of creature power creep that has Marked MTG for almost 10 years now? Grave Titan and Primeval Titan are unfair. Hydroid Krasis might be unfair. Arguably, the power of "on cast" triggers in general are unfair (albeit not as bad as Phyrexian Mana, Planeswalker Emblems, Storm and Dredge), though I would much rather have Eldrazi effects be "on cast" instead of "ETB", since ETBs would be extremely repeatable and broken. Creatures that have built-in combo-finish potential are broken (Griselbrand, Emrakul, the aforementioned PrimeTime, etc.) It won't see play in Modern or Legacy and it has no viable combo finish associated with it.
I mean, "hexproof, cannot be countered" is exceedingly obnoxious, but it is 4GG. It's a relatively efficient Timmy card, but Sleep, Edict effects, and Wrath effects all deal with it. We have one of those effects. Also, I can successfully trade with Djinn, and if I want to take no damage, I'll use Dive Down. It's an annoyingly resilient beater and nothing else.
My build for this meta. This deck seems extremely well-positioned.
Sideboard of course always in flux:
COP: Red feels very powerful at this exact moment. How does Burn beat us? Also, this + RiP + Settle should put an end to Izzet Phoenix.
Tocatli Honor Guard is still great: Amulet Titan, Vannifar Pod, Spirits, Humans, UWx Control.
RiP against so many decks!
Stony: Hardened Scales, Tron, just a requirement.
Warping Wail: Scapeshift, UR Storm, Dredge, UW Control, even Burn if you want that many spells for stopping sorceries.
Worship: All kinds of decks. Great 1-of.
Settle: All the swarming creature decks.
Deputy of Detention has been great in testing so far. Perfect colors, answers lots of things we previously could not deal with and it opens sideboard space because we have 2 copies of a creature D-Sphere. I am on Bant, so I am running 2 Path/2 Reflector/2 Deputy.
note: Tocatli Honor Guard is increasingly popular and that card does hose us and Humans pretty hard.
Think less about the approach as simple, than as the first thing you need to understand in any match. Misunderstand your role, and you are already at a disadvantage.
After that, it is helpful to understand the 5 archetypes in Magic (Aggro, Tempo or Aggro-Control, Midrange Aggro, Midrange Control, Control and Hybrid Control) and the two types of finishes (progressive and combo), in order to get a deeper understanding of how your deck relates to other decks, and the weaknesses in each match. Adrian Sullivan, one of the foremost theorists of MTG has a very interesting article recently that talks about this, and he has links to defining metatheory articles written by himself and others.
Then one has to consider deck-building: what kind of cards work together (e.g. Why Ponder in one deck, but Preordain in another?), manabases, synergy (and non-synergy), etc.
Finally, there is no replacement for knowledge of the meta (Crackdown is a perfect example, as if Affinity was the only really artifact deck, it isn't good, but if multiple artifact decks are strong, e.g. now there is Hardened Scales and Whir Prison in Tier 1, Affinity and Lantern in Tier 2, it is certainly much better) and practice (sequencing, a skill that even linear aggro deck players have to master; when to take a hit and when not, when to cast draw spells, when to fetch, when to counter, when to play on one's turn and when to play reactively, etc.)
All of which, in the end, feeds back into how well you understand your role in the match. I presented the simplest form of the idea, but the full content of "knowing your role" or "Who is the beatdown" involves a great deal of learning and application. Not that the best players are theory people, but they have at least intuitively absorbed all of these elements into their play.
In thinking about the SB, my first question is always "Who is the beatdown?" or, what is our role in the match. I'm not so much justifying my points, as helping you see how I think about the matches as I have played these a lot with this deck. Someone like SpiderSpace might have a different view and he is much better and more experienced with the deck as a streamer/heavy MTGO player.
With Tron, they are control and we are the beatdown. Turn 2 3/3 is better than a removal spell, especially as it functions as a de facto removal spell by making them unable to attack. If Thragtusk is their only out, we are in good shape.
With Burn, they are the beatdown and we are control, at least in the first few turns, but their creatures don't size well against ours, so Chalice + creatures is our best solution to them, and somewhere around turn 3-4, we should become the beatdown. I will say, I have lost 1 match, and only 1 match, to Burn in some 30+ matches. As long as you take Dismember out, you are doing it right.
Against Scales, they are the beatdown and we are control, at least early. Stony is the absolutely most important card, but Chalice is also super strong. Crackdown does seem like GG for them and if that is prominent in your meta, it seems like a fine inclusion.
Most of it looks fine. I'm not a fan of Consulate Crackdown, but hey, test it out.
The three I see issues with are:
Tron :
+ 1 cast out, 1 declaration in stone, 2 stony silence, 1 aven mindcensor, 1 consulate crackdown
- 3 dismember, 3 eldrazi displacer
You need aggression and Displacer deals with Wurmcoil Engine just fine, whereas Dec in Stone is meh. I also don't think Consulate Crackdown is good enough here. Cast Out is also only so-so.
Burn :
+ 1 kitchen finks, 2 worship, 1 declaration in stone, 1 cast out, 1 ratchet bomb
- 3 dismember, 3 eldrazi displacer
Displacer + Finks is Winsville. Dec and Cast Out are still meh here. Ratchet is ok, maybe worth a single Displacer.
Scales :
+ 1 cast out, 1 declaration in stone, 2 stony silence, 1 kitchen finks, 1 ratchet bomb, 1 consulate crackdown, 2 rest in peace
- 4 thalia v1, 4 leonin arbiter, 1 thalia v2
This and Robots seems like the match for Crackdown, but 3WW is a long way off. I also think that Thalia GoT is really good here, especially if you can do that or Chalice turn 1. Finks is ok and Ratchet Bomb is a bit of a non-bo with Stony.
4 leonin arbiter
4 thalia, guardian of thraben
4 eldriaz dispalcer
3 thalia, heretic cathar
4 thought knot seer
4 reality smasher
4 simian spirit guide
Spells
3 dismember
2 warping wail
4 chalice of the void
4 horizon canopy
4 gemstone caverns
2 shefet dunes
6 plains
4 ghost quarter
4 eldrazi temple
3 tocatli honor guard
2 worship
1 consulate crackdown
1 declaration in stone
1 cast out
1 ratchet bomb
2 stony silence
2 rest in peace
1 kitchen finks
1 aven mindcensor
Corey McKay and Tom Medvec in 5th and 7th respectively.
Mono-Blue Aggro
Alexander Hayne
1st Place Arena Traditional Ladder
4 Merfolk Trickster
3 Mist-Cloaked Herald
4 Pteramander
4 Siren Stormtamer
4 Tempest Djinn
Lands (19)
19 Island
Spells (22)
4 Curious Obsession
1 Blink of an Eye
2 Dive Down
1 Essence Capture
4 Opt
3 Spell Pierce
4 Wizard's Retort
3 Chart a Course
2 Exclusion Mage
2 Faerie Duelist
3 Surge Mare
2 Deep Freeze
3 Negate
1 Search for Azcanta
2 Entrancing Melody
I mean, "hexproof, cannot be countered" is exceedingly obnoxious, but it is 4GG. It's a relatively efficient Timmy card, but Sleep, Edict effects, and Wrath effects all deal with it. We have one of those effects. Also, I can successfully trade with Djinn, and if I want to take no damage, I'll use Dive Down. It's an annoyingly resilient beater and nothing else.
Sideboard of course always in flux:
COP: Red feels very powerful at this exact moment. How does Burn beat us? Also, this + RiP + Settle should put an end to Izzet Phoenix.
Tocatli Honor Guard is still great: Amulet Titan, Vannifar Pod, Spirits, Humans, UWx Control.
RiP against so many decks!
Stony: Hardened Scales, Tron, just a requirement.
Warping Wail: Scapeshift, UR Storm, Dredge, UW Control, even Burn if you want that many spells for stopping sorceries.
Worship: All kinds of decks. Great 1-of.
Settle: All the swarming creature decks.
4 Reality Smasher
4 Thought-Knot Seer
2 Restoration Angel
4 Eldrazi Displacer
2 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
4 Leonin Arbiter
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1 Phyrexian Revoker
4 Mana Dork
4 Simian Spirit Guide
3 Dismember
4 Chalice of the Void
Lands 24
5 Plains
4 Eldrazi Temple
4 Ghost Quarter
4 Horizon Canopy
3 Gemstone Caverns
2 Shefet Dunes
2 Wastes
3 Rest in Peace
3 Tocatli Honor Guard
2 Circle of Protection: Red
2 Stony Silence
2 Warping Wail
2 Settle the Wreckage
1 Worship
note: Tocatli Honor Guard is increasingly popular and that card does hose us and Humans pretty hard.