What people are failing to realize when comparing Modern to old Extended, Old Extended was considered a failure by Wotc. Why would Wotc create a format to follow a format where Wotc though was a failure? Just because a format exsisted with cards playing together, doesnt mean the format was a good format.
The lack of popularity and ultimately the death of Old Extended had nothing to do with power level or gameplay.
Players didn't like Old Extended because it combined the worst elements of Standard (your cards rotating) and Legacy (old cards can be expensive). Modern doesn't rotate, and WotC has committed to reprinting staples.
Modern gets compared to Old Extended and Legacy because of the size of its card pool. I hope that people see Modern as its own format and shouldn't be comparing it to other formats, but it happens, especially in the absence of data - and the banned list is a big part of the reason why. I hope WotC is slowly moving toward unbanning the cards that were banned under the guise of 'cross-format relevance' for that reason.
Aside - I'm pretty sure we'll eventually see the return of Extended, but not for 5 years or so to let the 5th Dynasty design approach go into full effect. Probably 6-or-7 blocks to match MaRo's long-term design cycle, rotating on the logical schedule that New Extended set into motion. As Modern continues to creep up in power due to new printings and unbannings, there will need to be a 'tweener format eventually to placate the wants for both the Legacy-lite and Super Standard crowds.
Restore could be cool, but it doesn't seem like that much of an upgrade over Life from the Loam. Its not like Modern has stuff like Wasteland that it wants to be abusing. How would you propose using it, other than just ramping with a fetch?
The sideboard is tentative while waiting on better data. The basic plan is to play very reactive but very aggressively with the Tribal synergies and use Clique and Cryptic Commands (and Agony Warps) to close the game. The spells are all over the place because I have no idea what will be good in the wide-open metagame, so I figured a spread would be the best to start out for testing - Dismember kills Goyfs and KotR (Bant is the new thing?) and Agony Warp can be a blowout on both offense and defense, especially if expecting lots of Zoo.
I'm not sure about the manabase. The deck wants to hit 4 land quickly but doesn't need much after that so 24 seems like a good number. Since it doesn't need to dip into 3 colors (unless you want to) manlands and Tec Edge can take up some slots which should shore up your game against control and let you apply more pressure. Maybe its best to forego the fetch/shock combo and focus on things that come into play untapped to preserve life totals.
Sideboard will probably need to be perfect to contend - Some combination of Deathmark, Consign to Dreams, and Vedalken Shackles should be good replacements for the discard against Aggro; Bident of Thassa and Baby Jace should come in to boost your long game, Shadow of Doubt is to hedge your bets against Pod and splash damage to greedy mana, and Robots seems like an auto-loss unless you sideboard aggressively so maybe its best to just pray to avoid it and hedge against Tron with playset of Spreading Seas instead. Faeries should have a great matchup against combo as is, so I wouldn't worry too much about that.
Am I on the right track here? Part of me says its just better to cram Snapcasters and bounce in there to try to Timewalk people. Maybe a green splash for Abrupt Decay, Simic Charm, and Pendelhaven is the right call instead.
Here's the deck I've been using to test Faeries in the Banned List Testing thread. As with all reactive decks this is one that's going to thrive on calling the meta right, then splashing colors, biasing between Tempo/Control, hedging card choices, and a good sideboard based on your expected local metagame. You need to play perfect on the day and make good deckbuilding decisions the night before or you'll lose.
This is my version of the jack-of-all-trades versatility approach with a heavy control bias (it fits my play style). It seemed like a decent jumping off point with neutral-ish matchups but also didn't have any overwhelmingly good matchups either (except the all-in early combo decks):
I expect that from the get-go, either Grixis (tempo) or BUG (control) Faeries will be the best versions for an unknown metagame depending on what you like.
The deck tends to get mauled by Voice of Resurgence (usually nearly unwinnable if it resolves) and Pod in general, and I haven't seen a lot of the new 8-rack deck going around, but I imagine its a really really bad matchup.
How powerful do we think KotR is going to be now that DRS is out of the format?
He'll get a little bit better. He was around in Big Zoo and Hatebears before DRS, he'll come back after he's gone again too. Don't buy the hype though. He just went from hampered back to playable.
Snapcaster Mage will probably finally hit the heights its raw power level suggests it should.
I think the biggest benefactor though is going to be Scavenging Ooze. Its reign has not been realized with DRS stealing its spotlight just 3 months after its printing.
Edit - Aside: The supply of Mistbind Cliques also seems to have dried up on MTGO. Hopefully the price will equalize and they will be available again when the cards become legal.
I think the odds are pretty fair to suggest that Bitterblossom, Ancestral Visions, Nacatl, and GraveTroll should be unbanned, using strictly Modern's own "rules".
BB and AV were banned as a precaution because they were over-performing in comparably powerful formats. Both of them have all but dropped out of the Legacy metagame except for fringe and/or niche uses and Extended is dead and buried, so the cross format rule no longer applies. Modern is now a good landing spot for these cards to find a competitive home.
Nacatl was banned to free up space for other aggro decks. Those decks were not top tier when Nacatl was in the format, and they aren't top tier without it here either. Goblins, Student of Warfare etc just aren't capable of top tier performance without new printings. The recent jump of Merfolk due to Master of Waves demonstrates that new printings are the key to boosting diversity among aggro strategies, not removing Nacatl.
Lastly, Golgari grave troll was banned to keep Dredge at bay. The other available dredgers in Stinkweed Imp, Golgari Thug, and even the new graveyard focused printings in Innistrad have not been enough to make Dredge a viable strategy. Since Dread Return has been considered to be the crucial enabler for oppressive Dredge-based strategies of other formats, there's no reason to continue to keep Grave-troll banned so long as Dread Return remains banned.
No matter how much I think other cards can and should come off, those are slam dunks using WotC's own "rules".
what? AV is as bad topdeck as Thoughtseize or Black Lotus (or even Bitterblossom). Sure, you can play seize or lotus the turn you draw them, but with a lower effect. Have you ever played against AV? From my point of view, it functions similar to Bitterblossom for control decks: drop it in early game, then proceed to trade 1 for 1 until both hands are empty. In one situation, you have 3 new cards coming to refill your hand, and in the other you have a lot of flying insects (that's what they really are :p) to kill people. Sphinx's revelation is only good in the late game, Ancestral Visions gives you a late game (maybe midgame if you suspended it on turn 1). They are similar, but in different formats. They both refill your hand after you traded with your opponent. Clearly, one is more powerful than the other (and cheaper to cast, and has a less prohibitibe cost)
If you completely change the context to resolution and coming off of an early suspend that's true. But it's still an awful top deck on turn 9 when you're both in top deck mode and desperately trying to kill a DRS or manland pecking away at your life total. Sphinx's Rev is going to be way better in the late game where the deck expects to play. Even Jace's Ingenuity would be better then. AV is only an upgrade if you suspend it early to come off suspend while the game is still on.
There are two lines of logic I could see WotC using to justify banning Emrakul. But neither of those will hold water til a deck that depends on forcing it into play is top tier (though the banning is Seething Song might suggest WotC's definition of "top tier" is probably very different than most players.) this is how I could someday forsee it going down:
1) Decks that use Emrakul as the end game "payoff" with a fundamentally fair and fun (eg not bannable) engine becomes a "dominant" deck. This would be done to force diversification of end game "payoff" strategies, similar to the reasons for banning Nacatl to promote diversity of aggro strategies. Just like how Nacatl's ban theoretically opened up space for RG beats, big zoo, RDW, GW hatebears, Death and Taxes, Tokens, etc a ban for Emfakul should open the door to more interactive end games like Darksteel and Blightsteel colossi, Sundering Titan, Elesh Norn, various kraken and leviathans, Omniscience, and Griselbrand Storm kills.
2.) Decks that cheat Emrakul into play are winning before turn 4 on MTGO in some percentage of games on account of Emmy's 15 power. A metagame with regular play patterns of self-inflicted loss of 5 or more life within the first 3 turns would make an early Emmy lethal, but slightly smaller creatures would have to attack an extra time to make it a T4 kill and interact-able deck again.
Again, I don't see any of those happening until a dominant cheat-it-into-play deck emerges. But it should be possible that Emmy could go on the chopping block one day if the conditions are right.
Re: Ancestral Vision
This card seems outclassed in Sphinx's Rev for now if it's card advantage in a UW/x deck. Top decking an AV is a dead card pretty much. And while JerryT has said he'd make WotC regret unbanning AV on a "fun" level I can't find an oppressive list and think an unfun control deck in the format isn't the end of the world because the format is more than just about fun at the competitive level where competitive REL exists. Sphinx's Rev is also scalable while AV is what it is. It's only in blue controlly decks without white that some raw card advantage is required. I'm no AV expert but I can't find a deck that would use it to suddenly dominate the whole format. So if you have it, please contribute it to the discussion, cuz I can't do much better.
1-for-1 and recharge the hand just isn't as good as it once was with how attrition-y Modern is at the moment.
Again, power is not the only reason for a ban. Yes there is stronger cards than BBE. So what?
BBE ban was aimed at reducing jund power without causing damage to other decks. BBE ban did acomplish that as no other card from it would.
Sometimes people focus on a small subset of reasons to support their argument and ignore the big picture. The ban of BBE was one of the most efficient and reasonable ban made by Wizards. A ban that did acomplish what it was intended to, reduce the overall power of the deck without killing it and/or damaging other decks.
BBE was the best option. BBE was used only in jund, DRS was used in more decks, BBE ban hurt only jund, while DRS ban would hurt other decks for the same effect. What would be benefic for banning DRS over BBE?
- Would this enable other strategies? No
- Would this increase deck diversity? No (it would reduce since other decks than Jund would be also hurt)
I think it is funny how people complain about new sets being bad (look at all the BNG rant), but when we get a strong card, people want it banned...
This is why I think the banned list is stupid. Lets look at CawBlade, a deck as universally despised and loved simultaneously as Jund was in its Standard.
What card do you take from that deck without killing it? It would need to be something that puts this deck over the top and it can't kill the viability of other decks that rely on those cards. Too many blue decks would lean on Jace to close games, so you can't do that. Too many white decks would lean on SFM to give them a must answer threat . I'd say out of that deck, we should ban Batterskull - its what makes SFM so crazy, and without a 4/4 vigilance, lifelinking, self-protecting creature in front of him, Jace is easier to deal with. The various Swords would be just fine as the next best equipment with Batterskull gone, just as Huntmaster, Thrun, Olivia, splashed Ajani, etc all fought for that spot after BBE got banned.
Should we hit the card that puts it over the top (BBE v Batterskull) or hit the cards that make the backbone (Lily, Bob vs Jace, SFM)? That means we need some changes to the banned list either way you go. Losing Batterskull wouldn't kill the deck. Jund didn't die after BBE was banned either. Its still right on top.
I think the movement to ban DRS, while not something I agree with, fits 100% within the paradigm of Modern bannings that have come before. The nail that sticks out gets hammered. In a format where the one-man wrecking balls have been banned, DRS is just the next in line. Even if their reasons seem stupid.
[On Bitterbloosom in Jund]
- BB is slow, for BB to generate the same value of Souls, it takes 4 turns after the turn you play it.
- BB is a very bad topdeck for GBx (on turn 5+ you can get the four tokens of Souls right on the same turn, while with BB you have to wait 4 turns)
- BB doesn't have any beneficial synergy with the deck, while Souls have synergy with liliana.
- BB add more damage to the already very high self damage output of GBx (Bob, fecthes, seize).
GBx will surely try blossom, but it's not any better than anything available now for GBx for what GBx want to do. Even if it for some reason become a staple in GBx, it will not increase the overall power of it
.
That's a pretty good analysis. People will try it, but it won't be insane.
[Price shouldn't be a reason to ban a card]
While this is true, the format health is also based on how people are happy with the format. (If people are not satisfied with the format, they will not play it)
And banning the money card of thousand of people is not a good way to make people happy.
So, sadly, in the real world, the price IS connected with the format health.
Money card will be banned only if it's the last option available.
So Jace is currently less pricey than Tarmogoyf. Tarmogoyf is the best beater, in the same way that Jace would be the best control enabler. Tarmogoyf can't be easily replaced in decks that would want him, as can be said of Jace. I don't think the format is unhealthy for having goyf in it. And I doubt the format would suddenly become unhealthy if Jace was in it either.
Just because I don't think anyone has articulated it concisely yet, the 'greed' problem with the fetch/shock manabase isn't about the risk/reward value at 3 colors being off, its about there being almost no penalty from 3c to 4c to 5c. Check this sequence of play:
That gives you 3 mana on turn 2, and if you hit your fetches right, access to all 5 colors at the same time. Or it could just be 2 colors. The cost in life is exactly the same either way. So its not the fetch/shock combo that is the problem...its the lack of ability to punish a player for getting greedy with it.
For example, lets say we get Wild Nacatl back. We'll assume you play it in a Naya shell (duh). If you want black, it becomes dark Naya. If you want blue, it becomes counter-cat or Aquarium or whatever. If you want both it becomes all of them and you might as well throw in Tribal Flame cuz Domain. But they're all just variations of Naya. And that's what leads to the lack of diversity. Its because its so easy to drop into extra colors and no incentive to just stay to 3c. There's no real risk brought about by getting greedy when the cost in life would be the same as staying straight Naya.
So there's got to be something that can be done to nip a single land, early enough in the game to hurt a 4 or 5c deck but without crippling the 3c deck.
Legacy suggests it might be that a well timed Wasteland is priceless. Maybe in Modern it will be Ruination to make them think twice about it going into the late game. Maybe both of those are too hardcore and can be toned down, but better than TecEdge and Thoughts of Ruin. Either way, this isn't the place for that discussion.
But what we can be certain of is this - the risk/reward ratio between 3 and 5 color shouldn't stay the same as you add more colors. I don't think that means we need a ban on fetch lands. But maybe we need something to punish the 4c and 5c in the name of defeating greedy.goodstuff.dec, because in the long term, continuing that trend is going to keep us talking about stuff like DRS and questioning whether Nacatl, SFM, BB, etc can ever come off when they're so easily splashable into any deck.
During Each player's upkeep he or she takes damage equal to the number of non-basic lands he or she controls.
---
Non basic land hate on a non basic land. You cannot tap this land for mana so playing it has a price.
Two things - (1) WotC doesn't print lands without mana abilities anymore, and (2) that's insane...it's like a free, symmetrical anethemancer every turn with no mana cost. It would be the end of 3+ color viability as we know it.
Maybe it would work as a color intensive enchantment - a little brother to Burning Earth at RRR or BRG or WRG but that's the only way I could see it as even possible for printing. We'd probably get an anti-non-basic land between Wasteland and TecEdge long before something like that, and Ruination or Back to Basics reprints as decent chance...eventually.
I applaud you for your blog post Koopa, but I found it a bit lackluster in non-opinion content and it felt more like a need to give your own expression than an actual analysis...
I think that goes well to demonstrate the flaw in WotC's approach. We can't make a data and analysis driven argument because the reason for banning them in the first place wasn't based on data and analysis. They took decks from other formats that were good, and banned key cards because it made them feel like they might be dominant in Modern. They never let the format develop to see if they actually were dominant with data to back it up.
Aside - Statistically speaking, UW stoneblade with SFM, Ponder, and Jace has the worst competitive record in Modern's history - both the Community Team and WotC team crashed out of the Community Cup 0-2 to Elves! In 2011.
Before we delve into the Modern ban list we need to establish just what exactly the ban list’s purpose is for the format. First, and let’s be very clear on this, the ban list is not some kind of molding tool used to shape the format to one’s liking. Just because GBx Midrange is the best deck does not mean you need to turn on the ban hammer as a way to balance the format. Almost always formats can be balanced and worked by new card entering the pool either from a new release or, in a more rare case, by unbanning something already on the list. So remember, the ban list is not our personal pottery wheel. We do not use it to shape the format to our liking. That is the job of card design. The ban list exists as a permanent check for the format.
I wholeheartedly agree with this, but I'm not so sure WotC is on the same page. A good number of bans we've seen in this format seem to be to preemptively cut off past bogeyman decks at the knees rather than actually controlling format speed or addressing demonstrated dominance in Modern. I think the best course of action would be to unban a handful of the more suspect bans for a trial period of a year or two (that they were denied at the beginning) and see what happens and if they can be addressed by new printings before re-evaluating the format.
The difference being that Deathrite is essentially always a 4 of with Jace being a 2/3 of. Legacy is a very fast format where having 2 4 mana spells in your opener is almost always an auto mull. Having 2 Deathrites in your hand just tends to be sweet.
Wouldn't that be terrible in Modern too? We have decks that regularly kill on Turn 4, and some that can stretch that down by a turn or more. Glass-cannon Griselbrand can even do it on Turn 2 very rarely. I wouldn't keep a high cost hand in Modern unless it also had some serious early business to keep my opponent occupied til Turn 4, or I knew beyond a reasonable doubt that the opponent was on a do nothing deck.
While those numbers are solid, Jace has been dropping in Legacy recently not only because of the meta shift (seeing a lot more combo which Jace does nearly nothing against) but also TNN, which might as well read "During your attack step, destroy target Jace if his Loyalty is 3 or less."
The problem with unbanning Jace in Modern is that the format as a whole is a lot more midrange oriented, which is the type of meta that Jace thrives in. Nearly every blue deck would want him as a 4 of easily.
UWR and Grixis control would get better, which is a good thing. Might even enable a BUG control list, but its hard to say. Valakut would run it, but its not put up big performances lately. It might be the boost Faeries needs if its not going to be Bitterblossom, but that would just add another deck to the top tier and should be considered a good thing.
Twin would probably be a metagame call - its a tight deck with little room to give. Jace is in the Legacy version, but GerryT thinks its terrible. Kiki-Pod is probably in the same boat. Either deck would probably use Jace sparingly as a metagame call between the versatility Jace affords and extra protection for the combo. Drawing multiples would be a real drag, so I doubt it would play all 4.
Jace would almost certainly not go in U/x Delver, Storm, Infect, Boggle, Domain Zoo, Glass-Cannon Reanimator or Merfolk. They're all too focused for a four mana distraction when they'd rather be killing you.
That's everything relevant with blue in the current metagame above 1% on MTGO.
Slamming Jace and +0'ing wouldn't be that scary in Modern - he still only has 3 starting loyalty, and there's no Force of Will or Daze to protect him for free. Modern has way more creature combat than Legacy does, and with Modern being less spell focused and much more Jund and Combo (Twin) heavy, its probably equally or even more hostile to Jace than the True Name Nemesis and Show and Tell heavy metagame we're seeing in Legacy. If you can stabilize and drop a Jace while in control enough to start to put away the game, you deserve to win, and that isn't going to happen til well after turn 4...regardless of format.
I think its prudent to wait until after the Pro Tour to really start testing (so there's a known metagame to use in the gauntlet).
Here are a few ideas that I think could be interesting:
The lack of popularity and ultimately the death of Old Extended had nothing to do with power level or gameplay.
Players didn't like Old Extended because it combined the worst elements of Standard (your cards rotating) and Legacy (old cards can be expensive). Modern doesn't rotate, and WotC has committed to reprinting staples.
WotC didn't like Old Extended for logistic reasons because its rotations made no sense. Modern doesn't rotate.
Modern gets compared to Old Extended and Legacy because of the size of its card pool. I hope that people see Modern as its own format and shouldn't be comparing it to other formats, but it happens, especially in the absence of data - and the banned list is a big part of the reason why. I hope WotC is slowly moving toward unbanning the cards that were banned under the guise of 'cross-format relevance' for that reason.
Aside - I'm pretty sure we'll eventually see the return of Extended, but not for 5 years or so to let the 5th Dynasty design approach go into full effect. Probably 6-or-7 blocks to match MaRo's long-term design cycle, rotating on the logical schedule that New Extended set into motion. As Modern continues to creep up in power due to new printings and unbannings, there will need to be a 'tweener format eventually to placate the wants for both the Legacy-lite and Super Standard crowds.
4 Mistbind Clique
4 Scion of Oona
3 Vendilion Clique
4 Spellstutter Sprite
Spells - 21
4 Bitterblossom
2 Thoughtseize
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Duress
1 Go for the Throat
2 Dismember
3 Mana Leak
4 Crytpic Command
2 Agony Warp
4 Mutavault
3 Creeping Tar pit
3 Scalding Tarn
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Verdant Catacombs
3 Island
2 Watery Grave
2 Swamp
1 Darkslick Shores
2 Secluded Glen
2 Tectonic Edge
2 Deathmark
2 Consign to Dream
2 Vedalken Shackles
1 Bident of Thassa
1 Jace Beleren
3 Shadow of Doubt
2 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Steel Sabotage
The sideboard is tentative while waiting on better data. The basic plan is to play very reactive but very aggressively with the Tribal synergies and use Clique and Cryptic Commands (and Agony Warps) to close the game. The spells are all over the place because I have no idea what will be good in the wide-open metagame, so I figured a spread would be the best to start out for testing - Dismember kills Goyfs and KotR (Bant is the new thing?) and Agony Warp can be a blowout on both offense and defense, especially if expecting lots of Zoo.
I'm not sure about the manabase. The deck wants to hit 4 land quickly but doesn't need much after that so 24 seems like a good number. Since it doesn't need to dip into 3 colors (unless you want to) manlands and Tec Edge can take up some slots which should shore up your game against control and let you apply more pressure. Maybe its best to forego the fetch/shock combo and focus on things that come into play untapped to preserve life totals.
Sideboard will probably need to be perfect to contend - Some combination of Deathmark, Consign to Dreams, and Vedalken Shackles should be good replacements for the discard against Aggro; Bident of Thassa and Baby Jace should come in to boost your long game, Shadow of Doubt is to hedge your bets against Pod and splash damage to greedy mana, and Robots seems like an auto-loss unless you sideboard aggressively so maybe its best to just pray to avoid it and hedge against Tron with playset of Spreading Seas instead. Faeries should have a great matchup against combo as is, so I wouldn't worry too much about that.
Am I on the right track here? Part of me says its just better to cram Snapcasters and bounce in there to try to Timewalk people. Maybe a green splash for Abrupt Decay, Simic Charm, and Pendelhaven is the right call instead.
This is my version of the jack-of-all-trades versatility approach with a heavy control bias (it fits my play style). It seemed like a decent jumping off point with neutral-ish matchups but also didn't have any overwhelmingly good matchups either (except the all-in early combo decks):
4 Spellstutter Sprite
3 Vendilion Clique
3 Mistbind Clique
Enchantments - 4
4 Bitterblossom
Spells - 16
2 Thoughtseize
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Spell Snare
3 Mana Leak
4 Cryptic Command
3 Smother
2 Dismember
3 Shadow of Doubt
4 Mutavault
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Marsh Flats
2 Watery Grave
4 Island
2 Swamp
3 Darkslick Shores
2 Creeping Tar Pit
3 Drowned Catacomb
2 Deathmark
2 Extirpate
3 Spreading Seas
2 Annul
1 Sword of Feast and Famine
1 Sword of Light and Shadow
1 Dissipate
2 Damnation
1 Cranial Extraction
I expect that from the get-go, either Grixis (tempo) or BUG (control) Faeries will be the best versions for an unknown metagame depending on what you like.
The deck tends to get mauled by Voice of Resurgence (usually nearly unwinnable if it resolves) and Pod in general, and I haven't seen a lot of the new 8-rack deck going around, but I imagine its a really really bad matchup.
He'll get a little bit better. He was around in Big Zoo and Hatebears before DRS, he'll come back after he's gone again too. Don't buy the hype though. He just went from hampered back to playable.
Snapcaster Mage will probably finally hit the heights its raw power level suggests it should.
I think the biggest benefactor though is going to be Scavenging Ooze. Its reign has not been realized with DRS stealing its spotlight just 3 months after its printing.
Edit - Aside: The supply of Mistbind Cliques also seems to have dried up on MTGO. Hopefully the price will equalize and they will be available again when the cards become legal.
BB and AV were banned as a precaution because they were over-performing in comparably powerful formats. Both of them have all but dropped out of the Legacy metagame except for fringe and/or niche uses and Extended is dead and buried, so the cross format rule no longer applies. Modern is now a good landing spot for these cards to find a competitive home.
Nacatl was banned to free up space for other aggro decks. Those decks were not top tier when Nacatl was in the format, and they aren't top tier without it here either. Goblins, Student of Warfare etc just aren't capable of top tier performance without new printings. The recent jump of Merfolk due to Master of Waves demonstrates that new printings are the key to boosting diversity among aggro strategies, not removing Nacatl.
Lastly, Golgari grave troll was banned to keep Dredge at bay. The other available dredgers in Stinkweed Imp, Golgari Thug, and even the new graveyard focused printings in Innistrad have not been enough to make Dredge a viable strategy. Since Dread Return has been considered to be the crucial enabler for oppressive Dredge-based strategies of other formats, there's no reason to continue to keep Grave-troll banned so long as Dread Return remains banned.
No matter how much I think other cards can and should come off, those are slam dunks using WotC's own "rules".
If you completely change the context to resolution and coming off of an early suspend that's true. But it's still an awful top deck on turn 9 when you're both in top deck mode and desperately trying to kill a DRS or manland pecking away at your life total. Sphinx's Rev is going to be way better in the late game where the deck expects to play. Even Jace's Ingenuity would be better then. AV is only an upgrade if you suspend it early to come off suspend while the game is still on.
There are two lines of logic I could see WotC using to justify banning Emrakul. But neither of those will hold water til a deck that depends on forcing it into play is top tier (though the banning is Seething Song might suggest WotC's definition of "top tier" is probably very different than most players.) this is how I could someday forsee it going down:
1) Decks that use Emrakul as the end game "payoff" with a fundamentally fair and fun (eg not bannable) engine becomes a "dominant" deck. This would be done to force diversification of end game "payoff" strategies, similar to the reasons for banning Nacatl to promote diversity of aggro strategies. Just like how Nacatl's ban theoretically opened up space for RG beats, big zoo, RDW, GW hatebears, Death and Taxes, Tokens, etc a ban for Emfakul should open the door to more interactive end games like Darksteel and Blightsteel colossi, Sundering Titan, Elesh Norn, various kraken and leviathans, Omniscience, and Griselbrand Storm kills.
2.) Decks that cheat Emrakul into play are winning before turn 4 on MTGO in some percentage of games on account of Emmy's 15 power. A metagame with regular play patterns of self-inflicted loss of 5 or more life within the first 3 turns would make an early Emmy lethal, but slightly smaller creatures would have to attack an extra time to make it a T4 kill and interact-able deck again.
Again, I don't see any of those happening until a dominant cheat-it-into-play deck emerges. But it should be possible that Emmy could go on the chopping block one day if the conditions are right.
Re: Ancestral Vision
This card seems outclassed in Sphinx's Rev for now if it's card advantage in a UW/x deck. Top decking an AV is a dead card pretty much. And while JerryT has said he'd make WotC regret unbanning AV on a "fun" level I can't find an oppressive list and think an unfun control deck in the format isn't the end of the world because the format is more than just about fun at the competitive level where competitive REL exists. Sphinx's Rev is also scalable while AV is what it is. It's only in blue controlly decks without white that some raw card advantage is required. I'm no AV expert but I can't find a deck that would use it to suddenly dominate the whole format. So if you have it, please contribute it to the discussion, cuz I can't do much better.
1-for-1 and recharge the hand just isn't as good as it once was with how attrition-y Modern is at the moment.
This is why I think the banned list is stupid. Lets look at CawBlade, a deck as universally despised and loved simultaneously as Jund was in its Standard.
4 Blinkmoth Nexus
2 Celestial Colonnade
4 Hallowed Fountain
5 Island
2 Mystic Gate
2 Plains
2 Tectonic Edge
2 Kitchen Finks
4 Stoneforge Mystic
3 Vendilion Clique
1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant
1 Batterskull
4 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
3 Path to Exile
4 Preordain
4 Rune Snag
2 Spell Pierce
3 Spell Snare
1 Sword of Feast and Famine
1 Sword of Fire and Ice
2 Wrath of God
1 Batterskull
1 Gideon Jura
1 Glen Elendra Archmage
4 Meddling Mage
1 Negate
1 Silence
2 Sower of Temptations
1 Spell Snare
2 War Priest of Thune
1 Wrath of God
What card do you take from that deck without killing it? It would need to be something that puts this deck over the top and it can't kill the viability of other decks that rely on those cards. Too many blue decks would lean on Jace to close games, so you can't do that. Too many white decks would lean on SFM to give them a must answer threat . I'd say out of that deck, we should ban Batterskull - its what makes SFM so crazy, and without a 4/4 vigilance, lifelinking, self-protecting creature in front of him, Jace is easier to deal with. The various Swords would be just fine as the next best equipment with Batterskull gone, just as Huntmaster, Thrun, Olivia, splashed Ajani, etc all fought for that spot after BBE got banned.
Should we hit the card that puts it over the top (BBE v Batterskull) or hit the cards that make the backbone (Lily, Bob vs Jace, SFM)? That means we need some changes to the banned list either way you go. Losing Batterskull wouldn't kill the deck. Jund didn't die after BBE was banned either. Its still right on top.
I think the movement to ban DRS, while not something I agree with, fits 100% within the paradigm of Modern bannings that have come before. The nail that sticks out gets hammered. In a format where the one-man wrecking balls have been banned, DRS is just the next in line. Even if their reasons seem stupid.
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That's a pretty good analysis. People will try it, but it won't be insane.
So Jace is currently less pricey than Tarmogoyf. Tarmogoyf is the best beater, in the same way that Jace would be the best control enabler. Tarmogoyf can't be easily replaced in decks that would want him, as can be said of Jace. I don't think the format is unhealthy for having goyf in it. And I doubt the format would suddenly become unhealthy if Jace was in it either.
Fetch (19), Shock (17), DRS
Fetch (16), Shock (14), tap DRS exiling fetch
That gives you 3 mana on turn 2, and if you hit your fetches right, access to all 5 colors at the same time. Or it could just be 2 colors. The cost in life is exactly the same either way. So its not the fetch/shock combo that is the problem...its the lack of ability to punish a player for getting greedy with it.
For example, lets say we get Wild Nacatl back. We'll assume you play it in a Naya shell (duh). If you want black, it becomes dark Naya. If you want blue, it becomes counter-cat or Aquarium or whatever. If you want both it becomes all of them and you might as well throw in Tribal Flame cuz Domain. But they're all just variations of Naya. And that's what leads to the lack of diversity. Its because its so easy to drop into extra colors and no incentive to just stay to 3c. There's no real risk brought about by getting greedy when the cost in life would be the same as staying straight Naya.
So there's got to be something that can be done to nip a single land, early enough in the game to hurt a 4 or 5c deck but without crippling the 3c deck.
Legacy suggests it might be that a well timed Wasteland is priceless. Maybe in Modern it will be Ruination to make them think twice about it going into the late game. Maybe both of those are too hardcore and can be toned down, but better than TecEdge and Thoughts of Ruin. Either way, this isn't the place for that discussion.
But what we can be certain of is this - the risk/reward ratio between 3 and 5 color shouldn't stay the same as you add more colors. I don't think that means we need a ban on fetch lands. But maybe we need something to punish the 4c and 5c in the name of defeating greedy.goodstuff.dec, because in the long term, continuing that trend is going to keep us talking about stuff like DRS and questioning whether Nacatl, SFM, BB, etc can ever come off when they're so easily splashable into any deck.
Two things - (1) WotC doesn't print lands without mana abilities anymore, and (2) that's insane...it's like a free, symmetrical anethemancer every turn with no mana cost. It would be the end of 3+ color viability as we know it.
Maybe it would work as a color intensive enchantment - a little brother to Burning Earth at RRR or BRG or WRG but that's the only way I could see it as even possible for printing. We'd probably get an anti-non-basic land between Wasteland and TecEdge long before something like that, and Ruination or Back to Basics reprints as decent chance...eventually.
I think that goes well to demonstrate the flaw in WotC's approach. We can't make a data and analysis driven argument because the reason for banning them in the first place wasn't based on data and analysis. They took decks from other formats that were good, and banned key cards because it made them feel like they might be dominant in Modern. They never let the format develop to see if they actually were dominant with data to back it up.
Aside - Statistically speaking, UW stoneblade with SFM, Ponder, and Jace has the worst competitive record in Modern's history - both the Community Team and WotC team crashed out of the Community Cup 0-2 to Elves! In 2011.
I wholeheartedly agree with this, but I'm not so sure WotC is on the same page. A good number of bans we've seen in this format seem to be to preemptively cut off past bogeyman decks at the knees rather than actually controlling format speed or addressing demonstrated dominance in Modern. I think the best course of action would be to unban a handful of the more suspect bans for a trial period of a year or two (that they were denied at the beginning) and see what happens and if they can be addressed by new printings before re-evaluating the format.
Wouldn't that be terrible in Modern too? We have decks that regularly kill on Turn 4, and some that can stretch that down by a turn or more. Glass-cannon Griselbrand can even do it on Turn 2 very rarely. I wouldn't keep a high cost hand in Modern unless it also had some serious early business to keep my opponent occupied til Turn 4, or I knew beyond a reasonable doubt that the opponent was on a do nothing deck.
UWR and Grixis control would get better, which is a good thing. Might even enable a BUG control list, but its hard to say. Valakut would run it, but its not put up big performances lately. It might be the boost Faeries needs if its not going to be Bitterblossom, but that would just add another deck to the top tier and should be considered a good thing.
Twin would probably be a metagame call - its a tight deck with little room to give. Jace is in the Legacy version, but GerryT thinks its terrible. Kiki-Pod is probably in the same boat. Either deck would probably use Jace sparingly as a metagame call between the versatility Jace affords and extra protection for the combo. Drawing multiples would be a real drag, so I doubt it would play all 4.
Jace would almost certainly not go in U/x Delver, Storm, Infect, Boggle, Domain Zoo, Glass-Cannon Reanimator or Merfolk. They're all too focused for a four mana distraction when they'd rather be killing you.
That's everything relevant with blue in the current metagame above 1% on MTGO.
Slamming Jace and +0'ing wouldn't be that scary in Modern - he still only has 3 starting loyalty, and there's no Force of Will or Daze to protect him for free. Modern has way more creature combat than Legacy does, and with Modern being less spell focused and much more Jund and Combo (Twin) heavy, its probably equally or even more hostile to Jace than the True Name Nemesis and Show and Tell heavy metagame we're seeing in Legacy. If you can stabilize and drop a Jace while in control enough to start to put away the game, you deserve to win, and that isn't going to happen til well after turn 4...regardless of format.