I like a split with Peatland. One thing I really like with them, is that they are extra cards with Wrenn without halting your land drops. I've liked the 2/2 split but it's possible 1 makes more sense, of course I'm running 25 lands so that second is cutting into a spell slot.
so I am hoping nothing gets banned, but that's unlikely. I do hope Wizards at least unbans SFM at the same time. we've had bannings in 2 different announcements since the last unban, they need to GIVE something with these annoncements instead of just taking our money and decks away.
Yes hopefully there are more unbannings rather than bannings but that seems unlikely
If you were to go the unban route, we could probably say that should Hogaak remain, Splinter Twin, Birthing Pod, Treasure Cruise, Dig Through Time, Eye of Ugin, Skullclamp, Stoneforge Mystic, Umezawa's Jitte, and Summer Bloom could all come off, and we still wouldn't end up with a new top tier deck.
Your definition of the top decks in Legacy is accurate, but Legacy still has a lot of diversity. Nic Fit, Maverick, Sneak Attack, and many more. Those decks might not be tier 1, but they're still competitive in the metagame and the reason they can function is because Legacy has extremely strong answers, and almost every color has access to relevant answers. So, as long as you play the cards you need to play to interact with the metagame, you can fill the rest of your deck with whatever you find to be fun or interesting.
Modern is in a similar spot these days, except our answers aren't as widely available, or as powerful. In Modern, you need to answer your opponent, but you also need to be running only the most efficient threats, because we're still very much a threat vs threat format rather than a threat vs answer format, though things are gradually moving in that direction. Especially now that Wizards has fixed their development philosophy and started actually printing answers again (Standard primarily, but some of that naturally comes to us), which is something that was ignored for all of Moderns life until very recently.
I think Modern has changed significantly from even 2 years ago. For a lot of people, I think modern has finally become the pro-format that they prefer. Pros really like formats that are smaller in scopes to leverage deck decision and sideboards. Modern has finally shrunk what is good to be able to do that compared to before. There are a lot less random decks out there. You still see them on occasion, but I think the TIER 2 and 3 plethora of decks which defined Modern for years are essentially shoved down thanks to Humans, Phoenix, Hogaak, Jund, UW Control, and an artifact deck and some variations inbetween.
It is really tough to play a brew anymore or a tier 2 net deck and win more and having trouble competitng. The velocity of deck search, the power, and the amount of removal have drastically impacted what could be played, especially for decks with little interaction such as Merfolk, Elves, Mono-Green devotion, Ponza, and all the rest of the tier 2 and 3 decks that are played.
It is fine to modern to be this way for the pros. Professionals LIKE smaller fields of play. This way they can leverage game skill, deck building, and all the other tiny skills that make you have percentage win chances against the field. it is why standard is generally well liked by pros let alone the generally money and attention lavished on it.
Modern has finally become that pro-format that really competitive pros wanted it to be.
I just don't like it. I liked the more casual 60 decks a week modern. It really isn't that anymore I don't think. There might be non-games due to the deck style of modern, but there really is a tightening of what is good or bad or what works or doesn't. Winning a couple games here or there and spiking a tournament with a deck just doesn't work as much if you aren't playing the clear best decks. It is much much harder to take a wierd brew or a tier 3-4 deck and do well. There is a much smaller tier 2 and tier 3 list. Staples on that list are no longer as good. They can still win and occasionally spike, but I bet it is less before.
I completely disagree. Modern is a lot like Legacy these days in my opinion. You can play basically anything you want, but you need to respect the constraints of the format and make sure that what you play includes ways to interact with the powerful things your opponents are doing.
A card like Leyline of the Void is basically a last ditch safety valve. A turn 0 1 sided graveyard hate card. You run something like that only when you need either 1 sided hate, and/or you need reliable hate extremely quickly. Having so much of that in the format suggests huge issues. Even if we grant the point Hogaak supporters are making, that Hogaak was running 4 and that inflated the numbers, they were still running 2 mainboard because their worst match was the mirror and they could afford the slots, and that if the 21% of the day 1 meta that was Hogaak all ran 4 leylines that only accounts for 380 copies. There were 900 copies (and then additional hate beyond that) meaning the average in the non Hogaak decks was still 520 or so copies for 350 players which is 1 out of every 3 decks running a playset, and then the other 350 decks running around making up the remainder of the 1100+ other copies of GY hate.
Thread in general's been pretty slow since a lot of the regulars moved to MTGNexus. There's also a lot of data tables there from users sifting through the data and segregating the Limited portion from the Modern Portion as well as links to other people's analyses. Some highlights:
Hogaak over-performed. Despite a tournament where there were more copies of Leyline of the Void in people's 75 than any other card, it still had the highest MWR at about 56%
Phoenix did all right, but it's MWR was only about 50%, which is about the same range as most of the other popular decks
UrzaSword was surprisingly high, with a MWR at about 55.4%, almost the same as Hogaak
It's also nice to see a BGx deck so well-positioned after what seemed like an eternity of BGx decks struggling to remain relevant
There were about 900 copies of Leyline of the Void in the tournament for 450 players. There was also about another 1600 GY hate cards in decks across Relic of Progenitus, Tormod's Crypt, Surgical Extraction, Rest in Peace, and a couple others. So, we're looking at 5.55 pieces of GY hate per deck on average, and despite that Hogaak overperformed.
I think this creates a good case for an argument that Hogaak just doesn't care much about GY hate. And that if it can be stopped, it needs to be stopped another way. Or, alternatively an argument that Hogaak cannot be stopped.
Anyway, I'm very excited to see what the future is going to be. My money is on Frontier being realized - though, perhaps starting at Origins and not KTK (so there's no fetches in the format).
Like I said before, I would be extremely surprised if they do this unless it also includes sets like Modern Horizons (which introduces a fetch). There would be significant bad will if they were to release a premium Modern set like that, and then suddenly obsolete Modern as a format.
I'm going to hazard a guess that this is related to supplemental products in some way becoming more than "supplemental".
Its almost definitely this.
(I hope)
EDIT: I actually meant to post it would be about a new format or retroactive legality change to supplemental products. I'd like that, the formats now are not super accessible without massive secondary market investment
A new non rotating format right after selling Modern Horizons at a premium price (and it's cards that they clearly wouldn't want in a new non rotating format) would generate significant amounts of bad will among the playerbase. I can't see them doing this.
Played an FNM tonight and took first at 4-0. Played against Storm, Merfolk, Tron, and Eldrazi Taxes.
Usually I'm on a red Experimental Frenzy list, but my Mystic Forges came in the mail so I decided to try them out. I don't have my decklist handy, but I think I played something like this:
I don't remember my sideboard offhand, but it was still mostly red based.
Anyways, this list was far from optimized, I barely had time to make what card swaps I did make before things started. What I can say is this:
1. Thoughtcast is insane in this sort of build. In my 4 rounds, which consisted of 10 games, I managed to have 3 games where I was able to play my cards and then Thoughtcast on turn 1 or 2 for 1 mana.
2. Mystic Forge is interesting. I got to play it several times, and as weird as it is to say, I think that on raw power level it is weaker than Experimental Frenzy. This probably seems odd, but the reason for this is that you can't play any lands off the top, and any spells are also blanks. That said, it does free you from red in a sense, though it is still immensely helpful to have access to red mana due to Bomat Couriers activation, and Bomat is a card you want access to with any sort of Future Sight like build. But, the ability to clear uncastable cards from the top does help a lot, provided you have a little bit of card draw to ensure you have lands to play. It's also nice that Forge lets you better time your fetches. Overall I like it more than Frenzy, but that's only because Frenzy heavily incentivizes red while Mystic Forge lets you keep your options open.
3. Urza was unplayable. I drew it in 3 games, cast in 1 and lost. The other two it was uncastable but it would have won me the game if I could cast it. The double blue is just too big a cost to pay, and I found I never really had enough permanents to abuse the mana. At the most, I was able to generate 10 mana and get 2 more cards, but doing so meant giving up most of my offense for the turn. It just didn't work well with a going wide strategy.
4. On the other hand, Sai was incredible. Mystic Forge really turbo charges Sai. On Sai's side, you can activate to draw cards and clear the top, while on the Forges side you can cast many spells, generating many triggers each turn. Also, while several activations per turn do need a lot of blue, casting it only needs a single blue, and thanks to the ample number of 0 drops in our deck, even if you're curving out on turn 3, it's not impossible to play it, then play a 0 and guarantee some value.
Going forward I think I want -1 Urza, +1 Sai, -1 Overseer, +1 Master. I also want a third Forge but I'm unsure on that cut. The deck can really only support so many bigger cards... maybe the second Sai is a bit greedy, but Sai/Forge make for one hell of a combination.
Many cards will go down, Wrenn and Six is not one of them. Canopy lands, Plague Engineer, Goblin Engineer, these will all drop. Yawgmoth and Urza will likely go down some as well, Wrenn will not. It is the best planeswalker ever printed, has a much more limited supply than JTMS with just as much demand, and is already a cross format staple.
Also, box value is likely going to remain above what was retail given how constrained supply has seemed.
Is also only a viable reprint in Masters sets or judge foils, both of which are years into the future.
Also printable as promo (not just judge) and Commander products, too.
Very, very unlikely to be printed in a commander product. Once cards hit a certain price threshold, they don't wind up in sealed products because it causes those products to not get into the hands of the people they're intended to get into. If you want cards that I think could be destined for a future Commander product, I think Prismatic Vista is the top option from Horizons. Despite being the best fetchland ever printed, I think it's something they're going to try to make very available. Could be a big foil/non foil gap on this one over time.
As a promo, how many promos do they do annual of mythics outside of judge cards? SDCC is all I can really think of.
Wrenn and Six is as hard to reprint (especially short term) as it gets outside of anything on the RL.
What's the ceiling for Wrenn short-term? I see the card settling around 110 in the next couple months. Wonder how much of its steady rising is thanks to the fact that the decks best positioned to use it are ones notorious for their costly singles---the Legacy Temur and Modern Jund players I know have all snapped up their copies at varying stages of the spike without so much more than a shrug. I think players of other decks seem to make more of a fuss when the cards they're eying shoot up at all.
Over $100.
It is extremely hard to reprint, and supply is going to be far less than people are expecting. Has retrace on it, which automatically makes reprints hard. Is also only a viable reprint in Masters sets or judge foils, both of which are years into the future. And, the people opening Horizons are those who don't play Standard. Normally Standard players also open packs and filter the cards to us, here that's not happening. Even a print to demand set is going to be opened far less due to less demand.
I guess Dessert Boy too, but it isn't a deck that wants to invest heavily in blue. That said, I do think that not having a clear replacement for Bridge is probably a good thing. I'm not really sure what you mean by "making creatures to delve," though. You couldn't delve creature tokens since they get exiled as a state based effect when they hit the graveyard and I'd never seen a winning play that required you to delve your Bridges away. Technically, you can delve Narcomoeba and Haunted Dead too. Do you mean creature tokens to convoke?
Yes, sorry I had meant convoke not delve. You need black or green creatures to convoke for Hogaak so any tokens (or creatures) that aren’t those colors have significantly reduced value.
But, I agree that it’s a good thing that there’s not a clear replacement for Bridge.
Use Talisman to tutor Karn, Let your opponent enjoy having an artifact.
I'm on something very similar. Won 2 of my last 3 modern FNM's, in the third the room was over 50% Tron and I still broke 50/50.
I'm playing something like this (might be off by a card or two)
3 Blackcleave Cliffs
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Blood Crypt
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
2 Raging Ravine
2 Swamp
1 Mountain
1 Forest
2 Barren Moor
2 Nurturing Peatland
1 Scavenging Ooze
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Seasoned Pyromancer
4 Bloodbraid Elf
Planeswalkers 9
4 Wrenn and Six
4 Liliana of the Veil
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
Spells 15
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Fatal Push
2 Thoughtseize
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Kolaghan's Command
1 Maelstrom Pulse
1 Assassin's Trophy
1 Abrupt Decay
Sideboard changes quite a bit.
If you were to go the unban route, we could probably say that should Hogaak remain, Splinter Twin, Birthing Pod, Treasure Cruise, Dig Through Time, Eye of Ugin, Skullclamp, Stoneforge Mystic, Umezawa's Jitte, and Summer Bloom could all come off, and we still wouldn't end up with a new top tier deck.
Modern is in a similar spot these days, except our answers aren't as widely available, or as powerful. In Modern, you need to answer your opponent, but you also need to be running only the most efficient threats, because we're still very much a threat vs threat format rather than a threat vs answer format, though things are gradually moving in that direction. Especially now that Wizards has fixed their development philosophy and started actually printing answers again (Standard primarily, but some of that naturally comes to us), which is something that was ignored for all of Moderns life until very recently.
I completely disagree. Modern is a lot like Legacy these days in my opinion. You can play basically anything you want, but you need to respect the constraints of the format and make sure that what you play includes ways to interact with the powerful things your opponents are doing.
There were about 900 copies of Leyline of the Void in the tournament for 450 players. There was also about another 1600 GY hate cards in decks across Relic of Progenitus, Tormod's Crypt, Surgical Extraction, Rest in Peace, and a couple others. So, we're looking at 5.55 pieces of GY hate per deck on average, and despite that Hogaak overperformed.
I think this creates a good case for an argument that Hogaak just doesn't care much about GY hate. And that if it can be stopped, it needs to be stopped another way. Or, alternatively an argument that Hogaak cannot be stopped.
Like I said before, I would be extremely surprised if they do this unless it also includes sets like Modern Horizons (which introduces a fetch). There would be significant bad will if they were to release a premium Modern set like that, and then suddenly obsolete Modern as a format.
A new non rotating format right after selling Modern Horizons at a premium price (and it's cards that they clearly wouldn't want in a new non rotating format) would generate significant amounts of bad will among the playerbase. I can't see them doing this.
Usually I'm on a red Experimental Frenzy list, but my Mystic Forges came in the mail so I decided to try them out. I don't have my decklist handy, but I think I played something like this:
4 Blinkmoth Nexus
4 Inkmoth Nexus
3 Misty Rainforest
2 Island
4 Darksteel Citadel
Creatures 27
4 Ornithopter
2 Memnite
2 Arcbound Worker
4 Signal Pest
1 Hope of Ghirapur
4 Bomat Courier
2 Steel Overseer
4 Arcbound Ravager
2 Master of Etherium
1 Sai, Master Thopterist
1 Urza, Lord High Artificer
2 Mystic Forge
4 Cranial Plating
4 Springleaf Drum
2 Thoughtcast
4 Mox Opal
I don't remember my sideboard offhand, but it was still mostly red based.
Anyways, this list was far from optimized, I barely had time to make what card swaps I did make before things started. What I can say is this:
1. Thoughtcast is insane in this sort of build. In my 4 rounds, which consisted of 10 games, I managed to have 3 games where I was able to play my cards and then Thoughtcast on turn 1 or 2 for 1 mana.
2. Mystic Forge is interesting. I got to play it several times, and as weird as it is to say, I think that on raw power level it is weaker than Experimental Frenzy. This probably seems odd, but the reason for this is that you can't play any lands off the top, and any spells are also blanks. That said, it does free you from red in a sense, though it is still immensely helpful to have access to red mana due to Bomat Couriers activation, and Bomat is a card you want access to with any sort of Future Sight like build. But, the ability to clear uncastable cards from the top does help a lot, provided you have a little bit of card draw to ensure you have lands to play. It's also nice that Forge lets you better time your fetches. Overall I like it more than Frenzy, but that's only because Frenzy heavily incentivizes red while Mystic Forge lets you keep your options open.
3. Urza was unplayable. I drew it in 3 games, cast in 1 and lost. The other two it was uncastable but it would have won me the game if I could cast it. The double blue is just too big a cost to pay, and I found I never really had enough permanents to abuse the mana. At the most, I was able to generate 10 mana and get 2 more cards, but doing so meant giving up most of my offense for the turn. It just didn't work well with a going wide strategy.
4. On the other hand, Sai was incredible. Mystic Forge really turbo charges Sai. On Sai's side, you can activate to draw cards and clear the top, while on the Forges side you can cast many spells, generating many triggers each turn. Also, while several activations per turn do need a lot of blue, casting it only needs a single blue, and thanks to the ample number of 0 drops in our deck, even if you're curving out on turn 3, it's not impossible to play it, then play a 0 and guarantee some value.
Going forward I think I want -1 Urza, +1 Sai, -1 Overseer, +1 Master. I also want a third Forge but I'm unsure on that cut. The deck can really only support so many bigger cards... maybe the second Sai is a bit greedy, but Sai/Forge make for one hell of a combination.
Also, box value is likely going to remain above what was retail given how constrained supply has seemed.
Very, very unlikely to be printed in a commander product. Once cards hit a certain price threshold, they don't wind up in sealed products because it causes those products to not get into the hands of the people they're intended to get into. If you want cards that I think could be destined for a future Commander product, I think Prismatic Vista is the top option from Horizons. Despite being the best fetchland ever printed, I think it's something they're going to try to make very available. Could be a big foil/non foil gap on this one over time.
As a promo, how many promos do they do annual of mythics outside of judge cards? SDCC is all I can really think of.
Wrenn and Six is as hard to reprint (especially short term) as it gets outside of anything on the RL.
Over $100.
It is extremely hard to reprint, and supply is going to be far less than people are expecting. Has retrace on it, which automatically makes reprints hard. Is also only a viable reprint in Masters sets or judge foils, both of which are years into the future. And, the people opening Horizons are those who don't play Standard. Normally Standard players also open packs and filter the cards to us, here that's not happening. Even a print to demand set is going to be opened far less due to less demand.
Yes, sorry I had meant convoke not delve. You need black or green creatures to convoke for Hogaak so any tokens (or creatures) that aren’t those colors have significantly reduced value.
But, I agree that it’s a good thing that there’s not a clear replacement for Bridge.