I'm glad you had decent results with your deck. Since I always do, I am going to nag about your mana, which is symmetrical at U:16, B:12, R:16. Dissolve requires 17 blue sources, Hero's Downfall requires 17 black sources and Fated Conflagration requires 20 red sources.
To make for a smoother mana-base, I would suggest replacing Fated Conflagaration with Doom Blade, and Hero's Downfall with Dreadbore. That still makes your deck short on colored mana (ideal is 17, 13, 17), but with the lands we have in Standard there's no easy way to get those numbers. The only way is to use all 4 Izzet Guildgate.
I don't think that Tron is much of a concern simply because no one plays it anymore.
That is true, especially in real-life competitive play, but it still seems to pop up on MTGO, probably due to the fact that it's a fairly cheap deck to build: http://www.mtggoldfish.com/archetype/8965
Molten Rain, Rain of Tears and Stone Rain are all CMC 3 land-destruction spells in our colors. For the fun factor, you could also try Acquire or Bribery, but now we're probably moving out of competitive and into casual.
Sowing Salt is quite good against Tron, but it is sometimes too slow. Therefore, Fulminator Mage may be more appropriate for us, especially since it attacks other problematic lands that you may be pitted against. If you really also need to extract it from their deck, we can always use Surgical Extraction/Extirpate.
Okay, so I think my numbers are pretty close to Frank Karsten's now. They are still a little different, but I think that is because he was using a simulation, whereas I am using exact math.
Here's the output, with the following assumptions:
Mulligan rules the same as Karsten's.
The tables are for on the *play*.
The 90% rule is relative to the land-drop percentages.
17 lands in 40-card deck, 24 lands in 60-card deck, 40 lands in 99-card deck.
@Spellsnare: Was that remark aimed at me? If so, what?? Where's that coming from -- I think I've only replied to elMochaLatte, and we've had many fruitful and constructive discussions in the past.
@el: We should probably take this "off-line", as they say, but again -- what does the (90% on the play) mean? I know for sure that it doesn't mean that 90% of the time (on the play), that you can tap for UUU, again because the chance of hitting 3 lands by turn 3 is less than 90%. I also checked to see if it means "you have three blue mana sources provided you have three or more lands in hand after drawing 3 cards", and it unfortunately doesn't mean that either (the math doesn't add up).
In short -- I can not put any value on his calculations, as his premise makes no sense at all to me. He surely is calculating something, but the only way I'll be able to understand what he is actually calculating is by examining his source-code.
Anyway, in the interest of staying on topic, I'll stop following up on this subject.
Nope, he meant specifically for his calculations to represent probabilities on the play, early on in his introduction he does preface his math with...
Okay, fair enough.
Also in the formula he is using ( H(k,n,K,N) ), he is using the value of 7 for the number of draws, further proving that his calculations are based on being on the play since 7 draws is representative of keeping a hand on the play.
It makes a fairly big difference in percentages, so it's important to keep this in mind.
I'm going to come back to this later after crunching the numbers and re-reading his article, I'm not entirely familiar with his formula but I believe that you're mistaking his evaluation/angle
Indeed. The problem is, what does his "minimum number of sources with respect to the 90% limit" mean exactly?
This isn't a combination of hitting the # of lands and the number of required color sources. He's calculating the probably of having UUU on t4, not 1UUU. He is calculating for the recommended numbers of colored sources in regards to mana intensity, not the casting cost as a whole
Yes, I think that was my point. So, if we agree on that then we have to realize that his numbers are not very useful with respect to knowing if one has enough red mana sources to cast spells like Anger of the Gods and Damnation.
By the way, I have read Karsten Frank's article carefully and found it to be quite misleading. I tested it with respect to my own analysis program, and found the following:
First, his calculations are based on being on the draw, not on the play.
Second, he is ignoring the factor of not hitting your land drops. In a 24-land deck, for instance, the chance of hitting the third land-drop is 85.59% on the draw (78.87% on the play), thus having any "90%" rule for cards with CMC >= 3 is quite frankly, ludicrous.
Third, the table that you referred to can not be used for spells with colorless mana symbols in it. It is a big difference being able to cast 1UUU and UUU. What his table really reflects is the latter, not the former.
I also took out my 4 Electrolyze's immediately following the bannings, but I instead put in 2 Counterflux (expecting more combo) and 2 Far // Away (should perhaps be Tribute to Hunger), and I really liked the change. Also, after having been beaten down too many times with Burn decks and Blue/Red combo decks, I additionally fit one Witchbane Orb in the side-board. That card has won me so many games that I am considering adding another in the side. I haven't experimented much with Forbidden Alchemy, but it seems like a decent digging can-trip with a late-game upside, and combos nicely with Snapcaster Mage.
Also, I like a 4/2 split between Mana Leak and Remand. Remand is such a neat trick and is quite mana-efficient. Note that I really see them as two very different spells, leaking is for disrupting their play, remanding is for disrupting their counters.
@Spellsnare: Oh, I know quite a bit about the requirements (nice table, by the way). I'm just pointing out the need for more read (1RR) than black (2BB).
With Modern mana-fixing, hitting those numbers should not be hard and my (20,14,15) split is fine for both Anger of the Gods and Damnation, since the deck in question runs 11 cheap can-trips (and aditional deck manipulation), resulting in an effective number of mana sources to +2 1/2 mana sources. For instance, my (20, 14, 15) split is actually more like (22, 16, 17), which is only 1 or 2 sources shy of the 90% limit. In other words dropping from 90% success rate (9 out of 10) to about 85% success rate (6 out of 7).
As for your mana-base, I analyzed it a little and found a few problems. The deck you played has 20 blue, 17 black and 12 red sources, not counting can-trips as sources. However, counting mana-symbols, you have 29 U, 16 B and 17 R, so it looks like black is skewed too high. As a matter of fact, even up to CMC 4, you have 10 black symbols (4 IoKs, 2 Terminate and 2 Damnation) and 12 red symbols (4 bolts, 2 Terminate, 2 AotG, 2 Electrolyze). So, you should be about even on red and black mana. If you consider going towards more Anger of the Gods, then you need more red than black.
I don't think you want to reduce your blue sources, so what you need to do is to change UB sources into UR sources to get to (20, 14, 15), so 3 UB sources must become UR. Perhaps:
I'm glad you had decent results with your deck. Since I always do, I am going to nag about your mana, which is symmetrical at U:16, B:12, R:16. Dissolve requires 17 blue sources, Hero's Downfall requires 17 black sources and Fated Conflagration requires 20 red sources.
To make for a smoother mana-base, I would suggest replacing Fated Conflagaration with Doom Blade, and Hero's Downfall with Dreadbore. That still makes your deck short on colored mana (ideal is 17, 13, 17), but with the lands we have in Standard there's no easy way to get those numbers. The only way is to use all 4 Izzet Guildgate.
4 Steam Vents
4 Watery Grave
4 Temple of Deceit
1 Temple of Malice
4 Izzet Guildgate
4 Mountain
1 Island
Having said that, this increases the number of cipt-lands, so it may be that this just skews the problem from color-failures to tapped-failures.
RG Tron: 2.24%
Mono U Tron: 0.64%
UW Tron: 0.32%
Krark-Clan Tron: 0.32%
Total: 3.52%
So, right now, about once in every 28 match-ups (3.5%).
That is true, especially in real-life competitive play, but it still seems to pop up on MTGO, probably due to the fact that it's a fairly cheap deck to build: http://www.mtggoldfish.com/archetype/8965
Here's the output, with the following assumptions:
Now, one interesting thing is that if you play 25 or 26 lands, then the minimum increases:
In short -- I can not put any value on his calculations, as his premise makes no sense at all to me. He surely is calculating something, but the only way I'll be able to understand what he is actually calculating is by examining his source-code.
Anyway, in the interest of staying on topic, I'll stop following up on this subject.
Okay, fair enough.
It makes a fairly big difference in percentages, so it's important to keep this in mind.
Indeed. The problem is, what does his "minimum number of sources with respect to the 90% limit" mean exactly?
Yes, I think that was my point. So, if we agree on that then we have to realize that his numbers are not very useful with respect to knowing if one has enough red mana sources to cast spells like Anger of the Gods and Damnation.
By the way, I have read Karsten Frank's article carefully and found it to be quite misleading. I tested it with respect to my own analysis program, and found the following:
First, his calculations are based on being on the draw, not on the play.
Second, he is ignoring the factor of not hitting your land drops. In a 24-land deck, for instance, the chance of hitting the third land-drop is 85.59% on the draw (78.87% on the play), thus having any "90%" rule for cards with CMC >= 3 is quite frankly, ludicrous.
Third, the table that you referred to can not be used for spells with colorless mana symbols in it. It is a big difference being able to cast 1UUU and UUU. What his table really reflects is the latter, not the former.
Cheers.
I also took out my 4 Electrolyze's immediately following the bannings, but I instead put in 2 Counterflux (expecting more combo) and 2 Far // Away (should perhaps be Tribute to Hunger), and I really liked the change. Also, after having been beaten down too many times with Burn decks and Blue/Red combo decks, I additionally fit one Witchbane Orb in the side-board. That card has won me so many games that I am considering adding another in the side. I haven't experimented much with Forbidden Alchemy, but it seems like a decent digging can-trip with a late-game upside, and combos nicely with Snapcaster Mage.
Also, I like a 4/2 split between Mana Leak and Remand. Remand is such a neat trick and is quite mana-efficient. Note that I really see them as two very different spells, leaking is for disrupting their play, remanding is for disrupting their counters.
Burn is still a tough match-up without an efficient source of life gain. I am not sure if it is correct to side-board for it, but it is possible to look into other possibilities, like e.g. Elixir of Immortality (also good against Mill), Consuming Vapors, Bloodchief Ascension, Tendrils of Corruption, Suffer the Past/Crypt Incursion and even Vampire Nighthawk (it will at least save you one bolt to your dome).
With Modern mana-fixing, hitting those numbers should not be hard and my (20,14,15) split is fine for both Anger of the Gods and Damnation, since the deck in question runs 11 cheap can-trips (and aditional deck manipulation), resulting in an effective number of mana sources to +2 1/2 mana sources. For instance, my (20, 14, 15) split is actually more like (22, 16, 17), which is only 1 or 2 sources shy of the 90% limit. In other words dropping from 90% success rate (9 out of 10) to about 85% success rate (6 out of 7).
As for your mana-base, I analyzed it a little and found a few problems. The deck you played has 20 blue, 17 black and 12 red sources, not counting can-trips as sources. However, counting mana-symbols, you have 29 U, 16 B and 17 R, so it looks like black is skewed too high. As a matter of fact, even up to CMC 4, you have 10 black symbols (4 IoKs, 2 Terminate and 2 Damnation) and 12 red symbols (4 bolts, 2 Terminate, 2 AotG, 2 Electrolyze). So, you should be about even on red and black mana. If you consider going towards more Anger of the Gods, then you need more red than black.
I don't think you want to reduce your blue sources, so what you need to do is to change UB sources into UR sources to get to (20, 14, 15), so 3 UB sources must become UR. Perhaps:
-1 Darkslick Shores
-1 Drowned Catacomb
-1 Watery Grave
+1 Cascade Bluffs
+1 Sulfur Falls
+1 Steam Vents