I'm here and still think xyre is the best play. I don't feel particularly good about anyone which is why I've been avoiding these disputes and just sticking to xyre for now.
Generally I think the proportion of signups is pretty balanced between experienced and newer players anyway. I made special allowances for someone who'd missed signups a couple of times in my mini last year, and ended up having to replace him with an experienced player on like day 2, which didn't endear me towards special consideration arguments I don't think it's really necessary to handpick a mini or a normal, either to get more experience or to give people a chance. In the worst case, if you're running a mini and get 10 people who've never even played a newbie game, chamber and Cyan, just re-roll random.org for a slightly more even distribution
I think I'm offended, but I'm not quite sure...
And so this post isn't completely spam, I support a third game but I also think it should wait until Rahl's game hits day 2.
HC: The way I see it, CPE being able to fire is unlikely to happen if the mafia have anything to say about it. Even if I were to vig him, all that would end up happening is that we'd have two dead townies and no new information, which would put as at LYLO with no real solutions.
Unvote vote xyre. As much as I don't like a lot of whats happening in this game this post stinks of inside info. He assumes cpes town threw it, then later tacks on a second post to cover his ass. It feels like what he did at the beginning of day 1.
Vecna sends his apologies. He didn't really mean to abandon his post, but college has taken the better part of his time. He recommends Axelrod, Azrael, Fadeblue, and Ljustus as possible replacements.
Not really. A perfect ring is the only case which guarantees a correct lynch the following day. Several of the other cases give some useful information. In particular it's possible to "test" an entire ring with a single kill, which gives some chance of a win from a 4/3 case, for example.
(And yes, my table has the figures in for swap-to-self because I kept changing my mind about whether this was the "natural" way to do it. Eventually I settled for explicitly discussing both options.)
If the scum are in a perfect ring of 3 then 5/1 and 4/2 work fine in outing them 100%. If the scum are 2/1 and then town is 5/1 then there is 2 guaranteed scum. If the town is 4/2 and the scum is 1/1/1 there is 3 guaranteed scum.
*(2/1 and 1/1/1 can only happen if roles switch with themselves, which means that if roles don't switch with themselves theres a rather huge possibility the town auto wins (ring of 6, and a ring of 4 and 2).
** Yes I refuse to admit that the mafia only started with 2 people in a mini baring other info, like the existence of 2 mafia groups.
@cpe would you like to comment on weather you know more about your roles specifics?
Whilst there are many things I like about your plan, I cannot support the idea of trampling over the views of the subset of the players who are currently not in agreement.
The key thing here is: they cannot all be scum. And we still have (for example) RafaelK claiming confusion about the motivation behind the plan. It's one thing for someone to say "OK, I see the point of this but I'm not in favour", but if people still don't even understand then it's too early to push it through.
I think it's important to bear in mind that CPE has changed clarified his claim twice since he originally made it. The version that appeared in a previous game was stupid and broken. The second version CPE claimed (no alignment swaps) made it unlikely-to-impossible that the game contained town-controlled targetted kills. The third (current) version he's claimed is potentially broken for the reason chamber explained... but it's more complicated than chamber discussed.
For the rest of the discussion I will assume CPE is town since obviously the case where he's scum is straightforward.
Point one: Some maths is needed here. We have nine living players. Let us suppose two are Mafia. If we use this ability, we might be able to catch the Mafia because we know they exchange roles only amongst themselves. I'll put the calculations in a spoiler...
Let R(n) denote the probability that a random shuffling of n roles produces a single large ring (ie. there is no subset of players who shuffle only amongst themselves).
Now consider the cases where our seven town players don't form a neat ring.
Town splits 2/5: The five townies are safe. The two townies are indistinguishable from Mafia unless one is NKed. Even then we are left speculating about setup and can't clear the one.
Town splits 3/4: The four townies might be safe depending on setup, so long as none of them are NKed, but in that scenario the remaining two of the group of three are indistinguishable from Mafia.
Town splits 2/2/3: Doomed!
I am assuming that the shuffle never leaves anyone with their own role. If it can give someone their own role this doesn't change much apart from making all the probabilities lower (denominator+1 I think) because we still catch scum if we end up with one long cycle of townies and not (reliably) if we don't.
...so what that all comes down to is that the probability of a random shuffle actually bagging the scums is not much better than one in seven!
Point two: Executing the shuffle plan would require a claim from everyone, which is in general bad for the town. However, it wouldn't need a full claim, just some way to tell all characters apart such as name or maybe something even simpler.
Point three: If Azrael's role shuffles not-to-himself then he will be able to tell us all about how it worked if he feels the need.
Overall, is this ability a good idea to use? It's nothing like as good as chamber implied, but I think it's still marginally better than not for the town.
Is it plausible? It has a one in seven chance of ending the game in the town's favour. That's something arimnaes might be prepared to put up with.
What if we don't No Lynch? Reducing the number of players by one makes the ability less good in cases where we don't hit the jackpot, but improves our chances of hitting the jackpot to one in six. I think that's acceptable, so if we're going to use CPE's ability we should still feel free to lynch today.
What if we vig CPE on the same night? Same effect as a lynch. This is a winning play if CPE's ability is real and a bad play if CPE is town. As such, the decision as to whether he should use his ability is pretty much independent of whether we should vig him. (Although Xyre won't do it, so it's kind've a moot point.)
What if we lynch and vig? Then we have a 1-in-5 of hitting the jackpot but are also at lynch-or-lose the following day.
What if there are three scum? Then our jackpot odds are better by one level in all cases. Bizarrely, if we trigger CPE's ability we actually hope there are three scum!
Overall my conclusion is that it's worth us devising some way to encode the identity of each character and then have CPE use his power tonight whether or not we plan to vig him. We should not make full claims. We should not lynch CPE.
Also, given that Xyre's ability will swap to another player with high probability if we go with this plan, we should not lynch Xyre today either. If CPE's ability turns out not to exist then the first step is clearly to lynch CPE and Xyre's position will need re-evaluating. If CPE's ability fires and does not clear Xyre then obviously he's tomorrow's lynch.
Unvote
Your math(no s) is wrong. 1. : you assume a perfect ring is needed to out the scum, where in fact a 6/1 split or 5/2 split would also nearly be an auto win for the town. You assume only 2 mafia left when its more likely there are three, and finally your math is just plain wrong from what I see. If there are 7 alive the chance that a perfect ring would be formed when a role can't switch to its self is 5/6 * 4/5 * 3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2 which is 1/6 not 1/7 Your numbers assume that a role CAN switch with itself, which should be extremely evident by R(1) having a value and R(2) not being 1. With all that said the number of possible permutations of groups is rather large and would be slightly unwieldy to calculate, I may do it later but not now. At any rate the chance is at least > 1/6 (3 mafia alive) and if roles can't switch to themselves as you originally intended (with 3 mafia) the chance of an auto win is 1/5.
Ummm bate, I already told you why chambers point was BS, so why are you now trying to get me killed over it. Because it doesnt shuffle alignments, there can be a vig, he just stays with the town always. @AI, the vig still goes through... so do all actions, roles are just shuffled. Right now, it seems painfully obvious that Bate and ZDS are scum. Vote BATE. Look, as I said to ZDS, I will use the ability another night, I just feel there is no reason to use it tonight.
@Game, going on vacation tommorrow, PMed the mod but also thought you guys should know. Should get moderate access, every 2-3 days.
hmm. I misunderstood you. This seems horribly broken though. I mean if we were to mass claim, then shuffle, then mass claim again, it wouldn't be that hard to spot who's roles only moved among 3 people. The only possible salvation is that its a mini and that the shorter nature of the game could lead to it never being used fully. Are you SURE this is how it works?
On another note, I had forgotten about rafks kill -.-. Having been reminded of it makes a lot of pieces fall into place.
Unvote Vote: rafk
Wuffles actually pretty much said the town win condition verbatim at one point. Not sure how many people noticed it though, considering he got lynched anyway. I didn't want to say anything in case we had a day-ending modkill or worse.
No apology needed, DYH. I wanted you to counterclaim me, but I wasn't sure we were on the same wavelength. I actually wanted to get WoLG lynched first so I could set it up for you to counterclaim me the next day, but it worked out fine this way as well.
If Charm hadn't committed suicide on D1, we might have had a real chance at winning.
Though I'm a bit disappointed WoLG wasn't modkilled for attempting to clear himself via the town win condition.
There were several times in this game where I almost modkilled people but I seem to be too strict, so I was attempting to be more lenient, in doing so I may have ended up too lenient.
I lost my copy of most of the night actions and don't feel like recreating them from pms yet. I'll get them up later. In the mean time I'll give cm the mafia lvp for obvious reason. Wuffles the town lvp for vigging town and getting himself lynched by listing his own character as scum. Town mvp is a little harder. I think I'm going to go with removable for solid day 1 play and the lynching of dyh. Had you kept up your level of participation through the middle of the game this would have been much easier. Cyan's the runner up, having good instincts and nailing fade. I don't think the mafia gets an mvp though, fade and dyh both played at the same level of mediocrity imo.
Fadeblue
Lelouch: You are Lelouch, together with your fellow black knight brethren CC(DYH) and Karen(Charm master) you form the mafia. At your disposal you have the power of your geass which allows you to control the actions of others. Once each night you may use your geass to either post restrict someone (post restriction of your choice but I will turn down absurd suggestions) redirect someone or, if you are to make the mafias kill, kill someone. The geass does have its weakness though, as it may only be used on each person once. The Town win condition is as follows: You win when the baddies are deaded. You win when only mafia are left alive.
Dyh
CC: You are of a mysterious past and are the granter of geass abilities You are mafia with Lelouch (Fadeblue) with whom you've bound a contract and Karen (Charm master). Each night, if you aren't making the kill, you may try to awaken the geass in someone. The town win condition is as follows: You win when the baddies are deaded. You win when only the mafia are left alive.
*Mod Note: her ability did nothing*
Charm master
Karen: Secretly half Japanese, you long for a future where you can be on equal ground with your biological mother. You are a member of the mafia with Lelouch (Fadeblue) and CC (Dyh). Each night, if you aren't making the kill, you may use your family ties to determine the name of one player. The town win condition is as follows: You win when the baddies are deaded. You win when only the mafia are left alive.
StormBlind
Mao: You were granted the gift of geass at a young age but instead of mastering it, it has mastered you. You're stuck here with everyone else so you may as well try and find your captors. Each night you may read someones thoughts. You win when the baddies are deaded.
*Mod Note: Basically a glorified role cop*
Hawkeye
Suzaku: As the former prime minister of japans son you've decided that the britannian empire must be changed from within. And have become an honorary britannian. Not only have you joined their military but you've been promoted to personal guard of princess Euphemia. After spending so much time with her you no longer guard her out of duty alone, but instead find yourself defending her because you love her. If Euphemia would die, you die instead. You win when the baddies are deaded
Wuffles
Cornelia: You are the second princess of the britannian royal family. You've come with your younger sister Euphemia to japan to help her govern it. You've also brought your knightmare frame along with you. You know that Euphemia is in the game and is town. You also have a 1 shot night kill. You win when the baddies are deaded
removable
Diethard Ried: You are the head of the information espionage and public relations of the black knights. Using your skills of disinformation you may edit your posts. You win when the baddies are deaded
Cyan
Emporer: As the head of britannian royal family you have almost no worries in the world. You sit up high on your throne watching you children struggle and enjoy it dearly. It is however for there own good. You win when the baddies are deaded. but alternatively you can win when only you and your children are left alive.
Pod
Euphemia: Sweet, gentle and kind. You are always willing to put others before yourself. During each day and night period you may select someone, if that person would die, you die instead. You win when the baddies are deaded
*Mod Note: If she was ever geassed she would have turned in to an sk*
Loran
Lloyd: You're always working on something, even in the current situation. Each night you may target someone, if their action uses a knightmare, it will positivity augment it. You win when the baddies are deaded
*Mod Note: His targets were suzaku cornelia and karen, suzaku wouldn't die, and the other 2's kills would have been unredirectable*
Wod
Clovis: You're absolutely certain that some non-britannian pigs must be behind this, who else would dare shame you in such a way. Each night you may target a player and get their race. You win when the baddies are deaded
*Mod Note: Got ethnicity, I thought it was clear in the pm but there seemed to be doubt during the game*
Dagger
Shirley Fenette: You have amnesia and feel like you're forgetting something important. Each night you may target a player, and see if they tell you what you want to know. You still know that you win when the baddies are deaded
*Mod Note: Was looking for Lelouch. When she found him she would learn that he was Lelouch, and thats it*
I think I'm offended, but I'm not quite sure...
And so this post isn't completely spam, I support a third game but I also think it should wait until Rahl's game hits day 2.
Unvote vote xyre. As much as I don't like a lot of whats happening in this game this post stinks of inside info. He assumes cpes town threw it, then later tacks on a second post to cover his ass. It feels like what he did at the beginning of day 1.
If the scum are in a perfect ring of 3 then 5/1 and 4/2 work fine in outing them 100%. If the scum are 2/1 and then town is 5/1 then there is 2 guaranteed scum. If the town is 4/2 and the scum is 1/1/1 there is 3 guaranteed scum.
*(2/1 and 1/1/1 can only happen if roles switch with themselves, which means that if roles don't switch with themselves theres a rather huge possibility the town auto wins (ring of 6, and a ring of 4 and 2).
** Yes I refuse to admit that the mafia only started with 2 people in a mini baring other info, like the existence of 2 mafia groups.
@cpe would you like to comment on weather you know more about your roles specifics?
Your math(no s) is wrong. 1. : you assume a perfect ring is needed to out the scum, where in fact a 6/1 split or 5/2 split would also nearly be an auto win for the town. You assume only 2 mafia left when its more likely there are three, and finally your math is just plain wrong from what I see. If there are 7 alive the chance that a perfect ring would be formed when a role can't switch to its self is 5/6 * 4/5 * 3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2 which is 1/6 not 1/7 Your numbers assume that a role CAN switch with itself, which should be extremely evident by R(1) having a value and R(2) not being 1. With all that said the number of possible permutations of groups is rather large and would be slightly unwieldy to calculate, I may do it later but not now. At any rate the chance is at least > 1/6 (3 mafia alive) and if roles can't switch to themselves as you originally intended (with 3 mafia) the chance of an auto win is 1/5.
hmm. I misunderstood you. This seems horribly broken though. I mean if we were to mass claim, then shuffle, then mass claim again, it wouldn't be that hard to spot who's roles only moved among 3 people. The only possible salvation is that its a mini and that the shorter nature of the game could lead to it never being used fully. Are you SURE this is how it works?
On another note, I had forgotten about rafks kill -.-. Having been reminded of it makes a lot of pieces fall into place.
Unvote Vote: rafk
I still find xyre suspicious but rafk more so.
Right he was someone I almost modkilled.
There were several times in this game where I almost modkilled people but I seem to be too strict, so I was attempting to be more lenient, in doing so I may have ended up too lenient.
He was : C.C., mafia
And thats a town victory.
Fadeblue
Lelouch: You are Lelouch, together with your fellow black knight brethren CC(DYH) and Karen(Charm master) you form the mafia. At your disposal you have the power of your geass which allows you to control the actions of others. Once each night you may use your geass to either post restrict someone (post restriction of your choice but I will turn down absurd suggestions) redirect someone or, if you are to make the mafias kill, kill someone. The geass does have its weakness though, as it may only be used on each person once. The Town win condition is as follows: You win when the baddies are deaded. You win when only mafia are left alive.
Dyh
CC: You are of a mysterious past and are the granter of geass abilities You are mafia with Lelouch (Fadeblue) with whom you've bound a contract and Karen (Charm master). Each night, if you aren't making the kill, you may try to awaken the geass in someone. The town win condition is as follows: You win when the baddies are deaded. You win when only the mafia are left alive.
*Mod Note: her ability did nothing*
Charm master
Karen: Secretly half Japanese, you long for a future where you can be on equal ground with your biological mother. You are a member of the mafia with Lelouch (Fadeblue) and CC (Dyh). Each night, if you aren't making the kill, you may use your family ties to determine the name of one player. The town win condition is as follows: You win when the baddies are deaded. You win when only the mafia are left alive.
StormBlind
Mao: You were granted the gift of geass at a young age but instead of mastering it, it has mastered you. You're stuck here with everyone else so you may as well try and find your captors. Each night you may read someones thoughts. You win when the baddies are deaded.
*Mod Note: Basically a glorified role cop*
Hawkeye
Suzaku: As the former prime minister of japans son you've decided that the britannian empire must be changed from within. And have become an honorary britannian. Not only have you joined their military but you've been promoted to personal guard of princess Euphemia. After spending so much time with her you no longer guard her out of duty alone, but instead find yourself defending her because you love her. If Euphemia would die, you die instead. You win when the baddies are deaded
Wuffles
Cornelia: You are the second princess of the britannian royal family. You've come with your younger sister Euphemia to japan to help her govern it. You've also brought your knightmare frame along with you. You know that Euphemia is in the game and is town. You also have a 1 shot night kill. You win when the baddies are deaded
removable
Diethard Ried: You are the head of the information espionage and public relations of the black knights. Using your skills of disinformation you may edit your posts. You win when the baddies are deaded
Cyan
Emporer: As the head of britannian royal family you have almost no worries in the world. You sit up high on your throne watching you children struggle and enjoy it dearly. It is however for there own good. You win when the baddies are deaded. but alternatively you can win when only you and your children are left alive.
Pod
Euphemia: Sweet, gentle and kind. You are always willing to put others before yourself. During each day and night period you may select someone, if that person would die, you die instead. You win when the baddies are deaded
*Mod Note: If she was ever geassed she would have turned in to an sk*
Loran
Lloyd: You're always working on something, even in the current situation. Each night you may target someone, if their action uses a knightmare, it will positivity augment it. You win when the baddies are deaded
*Mod Note: His targets were suzaku cornelia and karen, suzaku wouldn't die, and the other 2's kills would have been unredirectable*
Wod
Clovis: You're absolutely certain that some non-britannian pigs must be behind this, who else would dare shame you in such a way. Each night you may target a player and get their race. You win when the baddies are deaded
*Mod Note: Got ethnicity, I thought it was clear in the pm but there seemed to be doubt during the game*
Dagger
Shirley Fenette: You have amnesia and feel like you're forgetting something important. Each night you may target a player, and see if they tell you what you want to know. You still know that you win when the baddies are deaded
*Mod Note: Was looking for Lelouch. When she found him she would learn that he was Lelouch, and thats it*
Actions coming next.