@Shadow I don't understand why you of all people isn't worried about a no kill I guess. You keeping saying you and Ruma are the next two lynches locked in, but there really isn't any reason to suspect you over Manasi or Cether if Ruma flips town here. You've pulled the exact play that could be happening here before. Why couldn't Manasi or Cether have pulled a no kill here?
My argument is not really based on his behavior at all at this stage. He's objectively the most likely to be scum at this juncture. It's that he's claimed alignment cop and we can force him to hard clear his needed mislynch (you).
Ruma never survives this game. He just doesn't. But I don't want to go to a final 4 of (cantrip/me), you, Cether, Manasi. It's a low percentage world but from this spot I think we lose in that world a decent % of time.
I get the desire for a perfect game. And I don't hate yolo'ing it but if we're all wrong (which is unlikely) tomorrow is going to suck.
If we no lynch, we throw away the opportunity of gaining a lynch by stopping another kill. And that’s if Ruma is even town, which he’s just not.
I completely understand what you're saying and Ruma's play today screams scum to me. But mechanically he's trapped tomorrow by this. He has no outs if we play it this way.
And we don't need another lynch. This route gives us two lynches and two question marks unless you're worried about Cantrip.
No lynching here leads to 3 clears (if we're counting Cantrip) and two questions. Those numbers always win.
It's not about salvaging pride on a bad read, it's about covering all the bases.
It probably is just Ruma, but I'm just confused as to why you're so resistant to taking a safer route to victory. I don't see any way that this can lose but I can see routes where lynching Ruma today does.
I'm not really protected from scum!Shadow by lynching him tomorrow as there isn't a strong reason to think it's sucm shadow vs scum Manasi or Ruma. And I only get 1 more lynch if we lynch Ruma now and go into tomorrow with multiple question marks. I don't love the crap shoot of having to sort out you/Manasi/Cether without a ton of reliable info tomorrow.
On your second point you could just be lying about your role all together. Scum you skipped a kill last night in that world and you have an unrelated role like a role cop or something unprovable.
Third why does Ruma do anything? It's not an alignment indicative thing in my eyes.
Like I get that it's probably just me refusing to see things because I want to be right about Ruma, but Shadow's mechanical arguments are weak here. I'd rather not rush it and take things as carefully as possible.
Like the only relevant part of the JK for my plan is if we get lucky and block the kill. It's not a huge deal if someone vanilla's you. The worst case scenario is Ruma has to lock clear you and is a 33/33/33 with manasi and Cether. And we get to lynch two of those 3.
At this point I'm actually like pretty sure it's just you and you're trying to wiggle out of a noose by getting us to fast lynch Ruma here.
See this is all setting up for a classic shadowlancerx bluffing his way through with a ridiculous claim.
I think I'd rather not lynch the claimed cop and see who plays ball. If Shadow ends up vanilla and there is a body (me or Cantrip) tomorrow then we know for a fact it's 1 of Ruma, Shadow, and his target. If Ruma says shadow is town that clears 1 of the three and we know it's either ruma lying or Shadows target lying and we have enough lynches. This protects us from the scum shadow worlds and basically can't backfire.
If Ruma refuses to give a clear answer tomorrow we just lynch him with great prejudice and win.
Hmm. I mean, if we lynch Ruma and he’s town, I get to then jail one of the other two question marks and it’s at worst me vs the person I didn’t jail if there is a kill. But...I just don’t think it’s anyone but Ruma here. I get where your plan stems, but I’m not really interested in no lynching; if Ruma uses his vanilla shot on me, I’m asking Tom if that would effectively stop my jail ability, but if it did, we are in no better position than we are now.
The thing I don't like at all about this strategy is there is just no way to get any insight into you from it. I still feel the way you played D1 was reasonably likely to be scum you and this clears you and potentially another player. There just isn't a downside (short of Ruma going rogue). If you get vanilla'd and your target confirms they were JK'd I'd be happy to spend one of our two lynches on Ruma at that point. Not now though.
Hmm. I mean, if we lynch Ruma and he’s town, I get to then jail one of the other two question marks and it’s at worst me vs the person I didn’t jail if there is a kill. But...I just don’t think it’s anyone but Ruma here. I get where your plan stems, but I’m not really interested in no lynching; if Ruma uses his vanilla shot on me, I’m asking Tom if that would effectively stop my jail ability, but if it did, we are in no better position than we are now.
Considering that he claimed your JK blocked his shot I am very confident yours would fire first. Otherwise you'd be vanilla'd now.
And the reason I like this plan is my head says it's just ruma, but I can't shake my gut saying Ruma is town here. Plus I have lingering doubts about you.
If we lynch him here and he's town we have 3 question marks tomorrow as opposed to two if we no lynch. He could just not kill me but them there is a doctor alive and I think I'm pretty close to cantrip level of cleared here.
Alternative proposal: we no lynch today, I protect Shadow and Ruma cops Shadow.
Pretty sure that just wins.
...how does Ruma not just kill you in that scenario?
Also, I follow your doc logic well enough.
He does but we clear you and your target in that world. Giving us 2 confirmed town (plus Cantrip making it effectively 3) with 5 alive. We just always win in that world.
Nothing to worry about. Ruma was obvious scum today really. I just got too excited trying to break the game mechanically.
@Cether who did you target N1?
This is the wrong way to do it but it's probably right regardless.
Vote: Ruma
My argument is not really based on his behavior at all at this stage. He's objectively the most likely to be scum at this juncture. It's that he's claimed alignment cop and we can force him to hard clear his needed mislynch (you).
Ruma never survives this game. He just doesn't. But I don't want to go to a final 4 of (cantrip/me), you, Cether, Manasi. It's a low percentage world but from this spot I think we lose in that world a decent % of time.
I get the desire for a perfect game. And I don't hate yolo'ing it but if we're all wrong (which is unlikely) tomorrow is going to suck.
I completely understand what you're saying and Ruma's play today screams scum to me. But mechanically he's trapped tomorrow by this. He has no outs if we play it this way.
And we don't need another lynch. This route gives us two lynches and two question marks unless you're worried about Cantrip.
No lynching here leads to 3 clears (if we're counting Cantrip) and two questions. Those numbers always win.
It's not about salvaging pride on a bad read, it's about covering all the bases.
I'm not really protected from scum!Shadow by lynching him tomorrow as there isn't a strong reason to think it's sucm shadow vs scum Manasi or Ruma. And I only get 1 more lynch if we lynch Ruma now and go into tomorrow with multiple question marks. I don't love the crap shoot of having to sort out you/Manasi/Cether without a ton of reliable info tomorrow.
On your second point you could just be lying about your role all together. Scum you skipped a kill last night in that world and you have an unrelated role like a role cop or something unprovable.
Third why does Ruma do anything? It's not an alignment indicative thing in my eyes.
Like I get that it's probably just me refusing to see things because I want to be right about Ruma, but Shadow's mechanical arguments are weak here. I'd rather not rush it and take things as carefully as possible.
At this point I'm actually like pretty sure it's just you and you're trying to wiggle out of a noose by getting us to fast lynch Ruma here.
I think I'd rather not lynch the claimed cop and see who plays ball. If Shadow ends up vanilla and there is a body (me or Cantrip) tomorrow then we know for a fact it's 1 of Ruma, Shadow, and his target. If Ruma says shadow is town that clears 1 of the three and we know it's either ruma lying or Shadows target lying and we have enough lynches. This protects us from the scum shadow worlds and basically can't backfire.
If Ruma refuses to give a clear answer tomorrow we just lynch him with great prejudice and win.
Vote no lynch with me.
I get your resistance to the plan now though. Would you be notified of your result causing you to be vanilla'd?
If you would be told "Shadow you lost the RPS game and are now vanilla in a different way from Ruma vanilla'ing you then the plan still works.
Based on 16 Shadow either only JK's on a win or is lying. He also didn't correct my plan predicated on him winning in 242.
The thing I don't like at all about this strategy is there is just no way to get any insight into you from it. I still feel the way you played D1 was reasonably likely to be scum you and this clears you and potentially another player. There just isn't a downside (short of Ruma going rogue). If you get vanilla'd and your target confirms they were JK'd I'd be happy to spend one of our two lynches on Ruma at that point. Not now though.
Vote: No Lynch
Considering that he claimed your JK blocked his shot I am very confident yours would fire first. Otherwise you'd be vanilla'd now.
And the reason I like this plan is my head says it's just ruma, but I can't shake my gut saying Ruma is town here. Plus I have lingering doubts about you.
He does but we clear you and your target in that world. Giving us 2 confirmed town (plus Cantrip making it effectively 3) with 5 alive. We just always win in that world.