Grape, talk to me about the Shin/Shadow dichotomy that you talked about a lot earlier in the game. Please
Sure: they both have roles that focus on communication. Shin talks to town through the mod while shadow has direct access to us in private. But the thrust of both roles is to communicate with town. This feels unnecessary. And since I already suspected at that stage that town had one double up (protective based on Rhand) having two sets of two that overlap felt really unlikely. It just isn't the sort of design that I'd expect. Generally there is a role and a counter balance. Something like a strongman to balance out a BP (RIPepperoni's Hunt in Mistborn). Or a roleblocker to counteract a cop. Those sorts of balances.
Having two communications roles would make sense to counter balance each other. Shin can talk to town on one hand and Shadow on the other. It seemed an elegant counterbalance. That said Shadow has been so independently townie that I don't want to lynch him despite this. At least not early. In a final 3 all bets are off. I am justifying this to myself by revaluating my understanding of Shadow's role to be a weakened investigative since I'm currently of the belief that AG is scum and that leaves town without any sort of investigative role which would be highly unusual. So that's where I'm at with that dichotomy now. Any questions?
And all of his last posts are focused on interacting with Shin. That said I do like his very last post which and his asking for a town game from Shinichi that has RE in it. That is a specific question that shows interest in something. The rest of his play doesn't really, but that one has a glimmer of game solving in it.
Conclusion: He claimed a scum role, spent most of his effort pushing Wheat (for other people's reasons) and Shinichi (for largely unexplained reasons). It's not a great look. And I am willing to lynch this slot.
Now to look at Terry/RE's early mutual tunnel and then the QH/Proph wall off.
I find it kind of interesting that I full claimed, which should explain my play pretty clearly and not a single person even mentioned it.
I mean I saw it and it tracks with what I read, but I said I'd read AG yesterday and I'm following through. AG is pretty null D1 in my opinion. D2 is a different story.
Mechanical focus and trying to lock Shin into a claim. I get scum vibes here for that eager jump.
And terry is right that this next post shows solid buddying between AG and QH. While being a scummy looking keeping options open sort of post.
And as had been mentioned his incredulity about the targeting of Rhand is strange. I can follow it since he scum read that slot D1, but it's still a weird post to make.
Claim in two parts and that's just ngl. It feels like trying to get his story straight. I just don't see the town motivation to not claiming in whole right away. This is the biggest red flag so far to me.
Terry's reaction in the quoted post actually feels incredibly townie to me. This post doesn't give a feel one way or another on AG. Just remembering why I was town reading Terry. That sort of paranoia isn't easy to fake, and feels different to the paranoia he was spinning in avalon.
And revises history claims that his interest in Shinichi's role is limited to saying he claimed, but before that he pressured that VT point. scum+ He addresses it 2 posts later, but yeah, that's a weird look. Plus he's referring to how useless his role is for town indirectly here. Editorial over.
I forget what the day 1 ping was, although I could go back to find it; more recently he seemed to legitimately think his role is too strong for scum, which is going to be harder for a scum to pull off since they have evidence it's not.
Prior to the trap, I was worried about Terry. Shadow has been feeling off.
Vaimes, Grapefruit, and Terry are the only people I'm not at least somewhat suspicious of, although Eternal Lurker is working his way towards that pile.
Could you explain why you view Wheat's actions as towny? Not jumping from one wagon to another doesn't seem too impressive to me.
Vaimes shouldn't have been able to get a result on Rhand and therefore targeted someone else.
For reals? Dang o_O vote: Vaimes
Unless someone can offer another explanation to this, I don't see a better place to put my vote atm
Also, why do you assume that he targeted someone else? Well, actually, I'd probably do the same, but he could have still targeted Rhand and did the thing Terry suggested to cover up his tracks.
If he targeted Rhand he would have the correct answer. He either didn't use the shot or targeted someone else with it.
And still doesn't vote!!! Which Terry calls him out gently on here.
This just isn't a town line of thought to have. Cutting off my wall here. He says he was worried about Terry before the trap, but his reaction is not that of an excited townie hopping on board (which RE's is and reaffirms strongly my town read on RE btw). Huge scum+ for AG here. Doesn't show the progression on Terry he claims later and has a subdued reaction. Just a weird sequence here if he's town.
Walking back his Vaimes town read showing a willingness to keep is PoE a bit more open. But it is said in defense of Wheat and in pushing RE for her reads.
Huge post from AG His conclusion of RE and Shin as town and readable long term and Kpaca and Rhand as hard to sort is a bit worrying. And I'm going down a TSTBS rabbit hole with him liking RE's post calling out Mind's list and then saying he likes Shin for calling Mind out for pocketing for liking the same post.
Buddy alarms yes he hops back on shortly, but adds no substance on his read in between. Just says he unvoted because he was worried about leaving a random vote on then revotes without explaining new reasoning in the EoD rush. Going to have to think about what that means. Possibly town points I think.
And that's D1 for AG. D2 coming. Conclusion: pretty null with slight buddy vibes to Terry.
@Terry are you saying it looks good for Proph because it looks bad for QH? Or are you saying it looks for Proph because so many people jumped ship?
I'm saying a CFD from a Townie will almost never land on scum. Using the alignment data that we have and counting RE in the final VC (because he did vote Kpaca), QH was the only non-confirmed town to not jump ship on to Kpaca, which means most likely two scum also moved to Kpaca. I don't think two scum would move to scum-kpaca instead of leaving their votes on town-Shin.
So it's not saying anything in particular about QH on this point (see my later posts), but only using it for statistical reasons. The main point of the EOD analysis was that I doubt think Proph is scum.
Okay, I can follow this. The only way scum would have followed to Kpaca is if they thought the slot was so far gone they needed credit. Or it was exactly 1 scum who went, Kpaca doesn't self vote, and is buddied with QH. But since Proph and QH feel unaligned that would suggest a clear on Proph. That is a good find.
Ohhh and there was a question as to why I think Terry and RE are unaligned, that goes back to their mutual tunnels on D1 culminating in getting out of each others tunnels in response to Terry's trap on D2.
This fight has become such a convoluted mess that I don't even want to analyze its posts. So excuse me if my catch-up post lacks comments about it.
I'm not lending my vote to an AG lynch today. No-lynch does sound like the logical move so I might have to hold off on Proph. I'll go into respectable details about my reads soon.
Why not lending a vote to AG lynch? And even if you don't catch up on everything, which is fine I'd appreciate reads based off the information presented even if you don't comment on the events themselves.
*snip*
I'm not gonna get dragged into the trap of you taking this situation out of context. Yes, it's probably anti-Town in a vacuum, but not when it's used as a defense of a probable Townie.
When else are you going to specify that someone is probably VT based on the way they played though? I agree with a lot of what you're saying but this defense is a bit silly. Like you sitting here defending that if RE is town then you must be town, when Shadow isn't even saying that he's scum reading you, just not clearing you based on that particular bit of information is tough.
[quote from="EternalLurker »" url="http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/777879-silence-of-the-lambs-d4-all-is-not-in-order?comment=2276"]*snip*B: DEATH GUARD sounds very much like it could be a doctor!!!!! *snip*
This is the sort of doctor gas lighting I'm talking about btw. You just keep forcefully stating based on little evidence that Rhand could be a doctor. While not engaging with me about the issue of the context of his claim does not make sense if coming from a doctor.
I even agree with you that the quote EL dug up isn't definitive. It's not a smoking gun because to me it looks very much like you're suggesting the protection is dead. I get that interacting with EL is frustrating for you, so just don't do it. He's clearly not going to look at worlds where you are town so give up on it.
Talk to me about who is the most likely partner for the Shadow/Me scum team you're working on right now. And tell me how much of your read on me is based on the dichotomy between me and Rhand vs. my behavior outside of my claim.
GF, you can't seriously believe Terry means it when he talks about there being a Doctor in the game, can you? <INSERT REMINDER HERE> His claim as to Rhand's role (and as to whom Rhand targeted) is just whatever's convenient at the time for his narrative.
Well I was trying to get him to condemn himself with his own words, and that unfortunately leaves him the wiggle room to claim there is no doc because the doc was dead as his intent. I agree it's not a good look (hence my questioning), but I wanted to continue pressing this issue before bringing that back to the forefront.
You're doing a lot of talking for other people here grape. I reread Rhands claim and I don't see how you can know how he would or would not soft claim doc any differently than body gautd. I don't really recall mentioning doctor over and over again and I feel like you're really reaching here. By dropping terms like agenda, I'm starting to feel like you're trying to mislynch me.
I can't know what Rhand was intending, but I can try to guess his motivations and figure out what is likely. Or in other words play mafia. And what seems likely based on what I know about Rhand (very skilled and mechanically minded player) it seems bonkers to me to think he'd claim like that if his role was doctor. I know he was busy and was worried about being lynched before he got back to the game, but a doctor claim is one of the most important claims to keep completely secret.
And I'm not trying to lynch you yet. I just want you to explain very thoroughly why you think my role and Rhand's role form a dichotomy.
@EL I'm not ready to answer those sort of big questions yet. Working towards it, but need more time.
@RE first off why would the game be over if AG was modkilled right now? There is no way this is a four scum game, that's why we can afford to no lynch today.
Proph bussing is a good reason to see them as buddies. I know he does do that, but the level to which they've zero'd in on each other is interesting. I'll take a closer look at that tomorrow. I'm not sure I buy the Proph has been independently scummy argument, but I'll look into it.
Oh yeah, that'd just make today lylo, not mylo. I think I assumed he'd be modkilled at phase change, is why.
Just check out his reads list. The people in his town pile he keeps claiming he's probably being pocketed - which is one way of saying he'll switch to any of them but doesn't want the repercussion of doing so. Also, he keeps narrowing down his suspects to include Terry, yet doesn't seem to want to doubt him.
Also, what do you mean by the bold? Didn't you say you're comparing his play here to Kitty Mafia?
Ohhh that's a good point on Terry and his pocketing comments. I'll see if that tracks with what I'm seeing tomorrow. Potentially nice catch there.
And I was comparing his play to kitty mafia, but it's hard to hammer that comparison down because on rereading Kitty mafia I found that he was specifically changing his style to break meta, and he's been claiming OoG time issues and part of my read is activity based so that's unfair upon further reflection. I want to see him dedicated himself to this game before I confirm my scum read on him. But rereading him now won't hurt.
Sure: they both have roles that focus on communication. Shin talks to town through the mod while shadow has direct access to us in private. But the thrust of both roles is to communicate with town. This feels unnecessary. And since I already suspected at that stage that town had one double up (protective based on Rhand) having two sets of two that overlap felt really unlikely. It just isn't the sort of design that I'd expect. Generally there is a role and a counter balance. Something like a strongman to balance out a BP (RIPepperoni's Hunt in Mistborn). Or a roleblocker to counteract a cop. Those sorts of balances.
Having two communications roles would make sense to counter balance each other. Shin can talk to town on one hand and Shadow on the other. It seemed an elegant counterbalance. That said Shadow has been so independently townie that I don't want to lynch him despite this. At least not early. In a final 3 all bets are off. I am justifying this to myself by revaluating my understanding of Shadow's role to be a weakened investigative since I'm currently of the belief that AG is scum and that leaves town without any sort of investigative role which would be highly unusual. So that's where I'm at with that dichotomy now. Any questions?
Says he's okay with either of 2 town lynches. ngl, a lot of townies were okay with both them as well, but worth mentioning.
Digs up an old post of Vaimes defending him to pressure (?) Shinichi. Well Vaimes defending the shot gifter in general, not AG in particular.
More trying to defend his role unconvincingly.
And all of his last posts are focused on interacting with Shin. That said I do like his very last post which and his asking for a town game from Shinichi that has RE in it. That is a specific question that shows interest in something. The rest of his play doesn't really, but that one has a glimmer of game solving in it.
Conclusion: He claimed a scum role, spent most of his effort pushing Wheat (for other people's reasons) and Shinichi (for largely unexplained reasons). It's not a great look. And I am willing to lynch this slot.
Now to look at Terry/RE's early mutual tunnel and then the QH/Proph wall off.
I mean I saw it and it tracks with what I read, but I said I'd read AG yesterday and I'm following through. AG is pretty null D1 in my opinion. D2 is a different story.
Mechanical focus and trying to lock Shin into a claim. I get scum vibes here for that eager jump.
And terry is right that this next post shows solid buddying between AG and QH. While being a scummy looking keeping options open sort of post.
And as had been mentioned his incredulity about the targeting of Rhand is strange. I can follow it since he scum read that slot D1, but it's still a weird post to make.
Claim in two parts and that's just ngl. It feels like trying to get his story straight. I just don't see the town motivation to not claiming in whole right away. This is the biggest red flag so far to me.
Terry's reaction in the quoted post actually feels incredibly townie to me. This post doesn't give a feel one way or another on AG. Just remembering why I was town reading Terry. That sort of paranoia isn't easy to fake, and feels different to the paranoia he was spinning in avalon.
AG thinking more about who is vanilla. Scum+
OMGUS on Wheat who before this had been had been a town read of AG's. Scum++
AG Defending his role starts here. I never find his arguments convincing. But just glance through his ISO and make up your own mind there
Asking RE how certain she is about AG being scum another scum+ post.
And revises history claims that his interest in Shinichi's role is limited to saying he claimed, but before that he pressured that VT point. scum+ He addresses it 2 posts later, but yeah, that's a weird look. Plus he's referring to how useless his role is for town indirectly here. Editorial over.
Defends his role in the no lynch while keeping his option open to vote shinichi later. Scum+
Defending his flip flop on Shin. I don't have anything on this one, just want to preserve his town list: Me, Vaimes, Terry, and growing on EL.
Actually hold on. He likes Terry for the trap.
but this was his reaction to the trap:
Then naked unvotes Wheat without moving his vote in the very next post. And follows up with this:
And still doesn't vote!!! Which Terry calls him out gently on here.
This just isn't a town line of thought to have. Cutting off my wall here. He says he was worried about Terry before the trap, but his reaction is not that of an excited townie hopping on board (which RE's is and reaffirms strongly my town read on RE btw). Huge scum+ for AG here. Doesn't show the progression on Terry he claims later and has a subdued reaction. Just a weird sequence here if he's town.
So by AG's 3rd post he correctly identified 2 townies (Vaimes and WG) while town reading a third probable town (Shadow).
Possible coaching?
Walking back his Vaimes town read showing a willingness to keep is PoE a bit more open. But it is said in defense of Wheat and in pushing RE for her reads.
Huge post from AG His conclusion of RE and Shin as town and readable long term and Kpaca and Rhand as hard to sort is a bit worrying. And I'm going down a TSTBS rabbit hole with him liking RE's post calling out Mind's list and then saying he likes Shin for calling Mind out for pocketing for liking the same post.
Buddy alarms yes he hops back on shortly, but adds no substance on his read in between. Just says he unvoted because he was worried about leaving a random vote on then revotes without explaining new reasoning in the EoD rush. Going to have to think about what that means. Possibly town points I think.
And that's D1 for AG. D2 coming. Conclusion: pretty null with slight buddy vibes to Terry.
Okay, I can follow this. The only way scum would have followed to Kpaca is if they thought the slot was so far gone they needed credit. Or it was exactly 1 scum who went, Kpaca doesn't self vote, and is buddied with QH. But since Proph and QH feel unaligned that would suggest a clear on Proph. That is a good find.
Ohhh and there was a question as to why I think Terry and RE are unaligned, that goes back to their mutual tunnels on D1 culminating in getting out of each others tunnels in response to Terry's trap on D2.
Why not lending a vote to AG lynch? And even if you don't catch up on everything, which is fine I'd appreciate reads based off the information presented even if you don't comment on the events themselves.
When else are you going to specify that someone is probably VT based on the way they played though? I agree with a lot of what you're saying but this defense is a bit silly. Like you sitting here defending that if RE is town then you must be town, when Shadow isn't even saying that he's scum reading you, just not clearing you based on that particular bit of information is tough.
This is the sort of doctor gas lighting I'm talking about btw. You just keep forcefully stating based on little evidence that Rhand could be a doctor. While not engaging with me about the issue of the context of his claim does not make sense if coming from a doctor.
I even agree with you that the quote EL dug up isn't definitive. It's not a smoking gun because to me it looks very much like you're suggesting the protection is dead. I get that interacting with EL is frustrating for you, so just don't do it. He's clearly not going to look at worlds where you are town so give up on it.
Talk to me about who is the most likely partner for the Shadow/Me scum team you're working on right now. And tell me how much of your read on me is based on the dichotomy between me and Rhand vs. my behavior outside of my claim.
Well I was trying to get him to condemn himself with his own words, and that unfortunately leaves him the wiggle room to claim there is no doc because the doc was dead as his intent. I agree it's not a good look (hence my questioning), but I wanted to continue pressing this issue before bringing that back to the forefront.
I can't know what Rhand was intending, but I can try to guess his motivations and figure out what is likely. Or in other words play mafia. And what seems likely based on what I know about Rhand (very skilled and mechanically minded player) it seems bonkers to me to think he'd claim like that if his role was doctor. I know he was busy and was worried about being lynched before he got back to the game, but a doctor claim is one of the most important claims to keep completely secret.
And I'm not trying to lynch you yet. I just want you to explain very thoroughly why you think my role and Rhand's role form a dichotomy.
@EL I'm not ready to answer those sort of big questions yet. Working towards it, but need more time.
Ohhh that's a good point on Terry and his pocketing comments. I'll see if that tracks with what I'm seeing tomorrow. Potentially nice catch there.
And I was comparing his play to kitty mafia, but it's hard to hammer that comparison down because on rereading Kitty mafia I found that he was specifically changing his style to break meta, and he's been claiming OoG time issues and part of my read is activity based so that's unfair upon further reflection. I want to see him dedicated himself to this game before I confirm my scum read on him. But rereading him now won't hurt.