[quote from="Grapefruit21 »" url="http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/forum-games/mafia/771882-mistborn-mafia-day-3-snow-and-ash?comment=1557"]Also compiling claims, let me know if I missed anything.
Like implying I'm doing nothing but come at him while others evaluate and reevaluate is just not a thought town honestly has here. It's just not. If anything I'm one of the few people not locked into a single world and trying to interact with people and solve the game.
I agree with you and I'll get back to you in a bit on this.
Hmmm does a team of Rhand/Cyan/Shadow/Typh work? It makes sense with the last VC if they think they can turn around and turbo lynch Mind which is pretty much how the day has gone. Shadow even dropped a weird I'm ready to end the day line that makes no sense. The main problem is why would they lynch KJ over the claimed Rolecop? And I don't have an answer to that one right now.
I'm starting to think Mindreaver is town. Only one claim left.
Shadow, what's your character name?
Oh good it's not just me. But like quix just said, it's so hard to believe that town mindreaver just sits around and let's himself get mislynched to lose the game while he has a relevant information dichotomy vs a scum. Ultimately, this all feels like 'I've given up but only because my team will get to keep going anyway', which means mind is scum.
Also, if anyone wants a great example of 'CFTWR', just read shadow's recent posts.
Also Town!Cyan having his vote on Mind while saying this is beyond belief. Pretty sure Cyan is just scum here after all.
Ugh Cyan just keeps hand waving everything I'm doing away with Shadow/Grape are scum buddies and it's making me really think he's town because I think there are serious problems for us to be scum together.
I asked this to Cyan but anyone jumping in and answering it would be great.
@Cyan what is your case against me? What do you make of Gruffin town reading me before being modkilled given they had more information than the thread at large? I know I'm well past earning any town cred at this stage but I am not going to be the game losing mislynch.
What do you make of Shadow pushing me several times during D1 and only taking his vote off when he went to Huntzilla's wagon? How about the fact that I followed you to AG at EoD1 but Shadow stayed on Hunt?
Decided to do some coloring to see if it helped it make anymore sense.
[7] killjoy - Rhand, Cyan, Grapefruit21, shadowlancerx, Mindreaver, quixotic72, Huntzilla
[4] Mindreaver - TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, Rodemy, Cantripmancer, killjoy
Not Voting: Typhrous
This is leaving out my scum reads as I don't trust myself. Well except Typh but it's for OoG reasons. Looking at this and knowing KJ flipped town there has to be at least 2 scum on KJ's wagon. Assuming it's mind and Shadow for reasons discussed elsewhere we get this.
Not Voting: Typhrous
Rhand moves to Green because of the dichotomy between him and Mind. That leaves Cyan and Cantrip as the only two players without a strong read on them. I don't like the look of the game once I get to here. Cyan has compelling VC reasons to not be scum and Cantrip behavioural ones (though I still need to reread as I'm not as confident in that as I should be). I'd have to reevaluate my SJT and Quixotic reads if we progressed to here, but I don't feel good at all about the game state.
If I go the other direction and assume Mind is town and Rhand is scum the vote count make no sense with the reads I have.
[7] killjoy - Rhand, Cyan, Grapefruit21, shadowlancerx, Mindreaver, quixotic72, Huntzilla
[4] Mindreaver - TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, Rodemy, Cantripmancer, killjoy
Not Voting: Typhrous
The given the flips of Rod and KJ there can't be more than two scum on the mind wagon. And the scum team would know that Mindreaver's claim was legit. So we wouldn't expect a large pile onto KJ. So scum team would have to be almost exactly Rhand, Typh, RSJT, and Cantrip. Cyan doesn't make sense as scum in this scenario as they wouldn't have jump started a counter wagon to a PR with two votes. Shadow is possible in place of either RJST or Cantrip.
The worlds where Rhand as scum are more difficult to make work looking at that vote count and pretty much require Cantrip to be scum. This makes me feel much better about voting for mind and I'm willing to do so after I finally take a deeper look at Cantrips posts.
Has anyone done an ISO with analysis on him recently to save me a bit of effort? Either way that is tomorrow's mission: reading Cantrip.
@Cyan what is your case against me? What do you make of Gruffin town reading me before being modkilled given they had more information than the thread at large? I know I'm well past earning any town cred at this stage but I am not going to be the game losing mislynch.
What do you make of Shadow pushing me several times during D1 and only taking his vote off when he went to Huntzilla's wagon? How about the fact that I followed you to AG at EoD1 but Shadow stayed on Hunt?
I think Quix, Shadow, and Cyan's different reactions are all pretty meaningful.
Cyan says I'm bussing and continues to try to solve the game. That feels like a town reaction to me.
Quix expresses some genuine confusion at my approach given I'm ignoring the dichotomy between Rhand and Mind. And asks me to explain my thought process.
Shadow on the other hand knee jerk scum reads me. Says I flip flopped on him purely because of VC which isn't true. And said some nonsense about it not being surprising he'd try to pocket me that makes no sense given the timeline of events.
Also he just said he wants to pursue me tomorrow and has taken no stance today.
@Shadow Since you think we need to solve the Rhand v Mind puzzle what is your stance on it?
Like, I'm just kind of trying to wrap my head around your thought process where instead of trying to figure that out, you... go for someone else entirely. It's just not a progression that makes logical sense to me. Instead of figuring out how he fits with the two possible scum, you try to isolate him as scum independent of the information in the thread.
I agree there is 100% scum in those two, but I started looking at vote counts to try and sort the whole thing out Shadow is the main thing that jumped out at me. Mindreaver is highly like to be scum as well but I've been back and forth on Rhand all day and don't trust myself to read him without bias at this stage.
@Cyan what you say makes sense with regards to shadow and Mind together.
@Quioxtic I haven't thought about it behaviourally, was just trying to walk through possible worlds. If I were to start doing that without extensive back work it would be on the D1 vote counts where Shadow was on Mind a fair bit. I think it's most likely they are scum together, but I'm more confident in Shadow based purely on the VC.
Right now I'm trying to build a world of Mind, Shadow, Cyan, and Typh as scum. Looking through vote counts this one stands out as somewhat problematic for those worlds:
so I don't think it makes it impossible. But less likely.
Shadow's vote tracking across D1 is super inconsistent. He is off and back on Mind many times and is making me want to conf bias them as buddies based on that.
On the other hand entirely I think these few vote counts tell a compelling cyan/shadow buddy story.
With the amount of confirmed town on that wagon Cyan at the front and shadow coming in late looks very suspicious. And apart from one unvote he stayed on Hunt till the end from this stage. The D1 vote counts are making me very comfortable voting shadow first. I don't look great either, but shadow appears flighty about being on the Mind wagon and similarly flighty about Hunt but tunnels in on it in the end. I know he said he'd vote AG to avoid a tie, but we never saw it thanks to Gruffin beating him to the punch.
On the Cyan EoD switch that he's been holding up as proof of towniness. Yes it prevented a no lynch and took away the opportunity for town to switch and vote Hunt but it also is proof to be held up later of towniness.
So D1 summary Cyan scum worlds look less likely (but possible) but Mind/Shadow/Typh works fine.
This is the first D2 wagon that sticks out to me. Cyan and Shadow voting together again. Not sure what to make of it, but they are together a ton.
Fulcrum spends a bit of time on Mind on D2. Seems like a slight blow to my fulcrum/typh theory. Could have been thinking it's a lost cause and get the bus in but that is biased thinking by me.
Another blow to the cyan as scum world is it puts all three active scum onto KJ. I guess that probably has to be the case given my reads on SJT and Cantrip (and is why I really need to do due diligence there), but it's still feels like it should be unlikely.
So conclusions based on VC's Shadow looks more scummy than Mind. I paid no attention to Rhand which was a mistake I'll try to rectify tomorrow. Same with Cantrip.
Either way I feel comfortable with voting Shadow right now, but going to wait for claims to play out. FOS: Shadow
Gruffin: NeighborizerAG: VT
Bur: Desperado
GJ: VT
KJ: VT
Rod: Follower
Grape: 1 shot Cloaker
Rhand: VT
Hunt: Bulletproof
Mind: Vanilla cop
Shadow: Flavor Cop
Cyan: VT
Cantrip: VT
Quix: VT
SJT: No claim but heavily implied game changing PR waiting on your claim
Typh/Newcomb: No claim
And welcome to the game Newcomb!
I agree with you and I'll get back to you in a bit on this.
@Mindreaver Who are Rhand's teammates?
Also Town!Cyan having his vote on Mind while saying this is beyond belief. Pretty sure Cyan is just scum here after all.
I asked this to Cyan but anyone jumping in and answering it would be great.
[7] killjoy - Rhand, Cyan, Grapefruit21, shadowlancerx, Mindreaver, quixotic72, Huntzilla
[4] Mindreaver - TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, Rodemy, Cantripmancer, killjoy
Not Voting: Typhrous
I stared a lot more at this VC today.
Decided to do some coloring to see if it helped it make anymore sense.
[7] killjoy - Rhand, Cyan, Grapefruit21, shadowlancerx, Mindreaver, quixotic72, Huntzilla
[4] Mindreaver - TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, Rodemy, Cantripmancer, killjoy
Not Voting: Typhrous
This is leaving out my scum reads as I don't trust myself. Well except Typh but it's for OoG reasons. Looking at this and knowing KJ flipped town there has to be at least 2 scum on KJ's wagon. Assuming it's mind and Shadow for reasons discussed elsewhere we get this.
[7] killjoy - Rhand, Cyan, Grapefruit21, shadowlancerx, Mindreaver, quixotic72, Huntzilla
[4] Mindreaver - TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, Rodemy, Cantripmancer, killjoy
Not Voting: Typhrous
Rhand moves to Green because of the dichotomy between him and Mind. That leaves Cyan and Cantrip as the only two players without a strong read on them. I don't like the look of the game once I get to here. Cyan has compelling VC reasons to not be scum and Cantrip behavioural ones (though I still need to reread as I'm not as confident in that as I should be). I'd have to reevaluate my SJT and Quixotic reads if we progressed to here, but I don't feel good at all about the game state.
If I go the other direction and assume Mind is town and Rhand is scum the vote count make no sense with the reads I have.
[7] killjoy - Rhand, Cyan, Grapefruit21, shadowlancerx, Mindreaver, quixotic72, Huntzilla
[4] Mindreaver - TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, Rodemy, Cantripmancer, killjoy
Not Voting: Typhrous
The given the flips of Rod and KJ there can't be more than two scum on the mind wagon. And the scum team would know that Mindreaver's claim was legit. So we wouldn't expect a large pile onto KJ. So scum team would have to be almost exactly Rhand, Typh, RSJT, and Cantrip. Cyan doesn't make sense as scum in this scenario as they wouldn't have jump started a counter wagon to a PR with two votes. Shadow is possible in place of either RJST or Cantrip.
The worlds where Rhand as scum are more difficult to make work looking at that vote count and pretty much require Cantrip to be scum. This makes me feel much better about voting for mind and I'm willing to do so after I finally take a deeper look at Cantrips posts.
Has anyone done an ISO with analysis on him recently to save me a bit of effort? Either way that is tomorrow's mission: reading Cantrip.
What do you make of Shadow pushing me several times during D1 and only taking his vote off when he went to Huntzilla's wagon? How about the fact that I followed you to AG at EoD1 but Shadow stayed on Hunt?
Cyan says I'm bussing and continues to try to solve the game. That feels like a town reaction to me.
Quix expresses some genuine confusion at my approach given I'm ignoring the dichotomy between Rhand and Mind. And asks me to explain my thought process.
Shadow on the other hand knee jerk scum reads me. Says I flip flopped on him purely because of VC which isn't true. And said some nonsense about it not being surprising he'd try to pocket me that makes no sense given the timeline of events.
Also he just said he wants to pursue me tomorrow and has taken no stance today.
@Shadow Since you think we need to solve the Rhand v Mind puzzle what is your stance on it?
I agree there is 100% scum in those two, but I started looking at vote counts to try and sort the whole thing out Shadow is the main thing that jumped out at me. Mindreaver is highly like to be scum as well but I've been back and forth on Rhand all day and don't trust myself to read him without bias at this stage.
@Cyan what you say makes sense with regards to shadow and Mind together.
Vote Count 1.06 (9 to lynch)
[5] Mindreaver - Cantripmancer, Apocado, Cyan, shadowlancerx, Huntzilla
[2] Bur - Grapefruit21, AtheistGod
[2] Gentleman Johnny - Kitbits, Rhand
[2] Gruffinchops - Mindreaver, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
[1] TheRealStinkyJoeTerry - Bur
[1] Apocado - LogicoftheVI
[1] AtheistGod - Gruffinchops
Not Voting: Cythare, Gentleman Johnny
Shadow is off by the next VC and Cyan by the one after
[3] Mindreaver - Cantripmancer, Apocado, Huntzilla
[2] Bur - Grapefruit21, AtheistGod
[2] Gruffinchops - Mindreaver, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
[2] Grapefruit21 - Rhand, shadowlancerx
[1] Apocado - LogicoftheVI
[1] Cyan - Gruffinchops
[1] Gentleman Johnny - Kitbits
[1] AtheistGod - Gentleman Johnny
Not Voting: Cythare, Cyan, Bur
Shadow's vote tracking across D1 is super inconsistent. He is off and back on Mind many times and is making me want to conf bias them as buddies based on that.
On the other hand entirely I think these few vote counts tell a compelling cyan/shadow buddy story.
[4] Huntzilla - Grapefruit21, Cyan, Gentleman Johnny, Gruffinchops
[4] Grapefruit21 - Rodemy, shadowlancerx, killjoy, Rhand
[2] AtheistGod - Mindreaver, Huntzilla
[1] Cyan - TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
[1] Bur - AtheistGod
[1] Mindreaver - quixotic72
Not Voting: fulcrum, Bur, Cantripmancer
Vote Count 1.16 (9 to lynch)
[5] Huntzilla - Grapefruit21, Cyan, Gentleman Johnny, Gruffinchops, Rodemy
[3] Grapefruit21 - shadowlancerx, killjoy, Rhand
[2] AtheistGod - Mindreaver, Huntzilla
[1] Cyan - TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
[1] Bur - AtheistGod
[1] Mindreaver - quixotic72
Not Voting: fulcrum, Bur, Cantripmancer
Vote Count 1.17 (9 to lynch)
[5] Huntzilla - Cyan, Gentleman Johnny, Gruffinchops, Rodemy, killjoy
[3] AtheistGod - Mindreaver, Huntzilla, Grapefruit21
[1] Grapefruit21 - Rhand
[1] Cyan - TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
[1] Bur - AtheistGod
[1] Mindreaver - quixotic72
Not Voting: fulcrum, Bur, Cantripmancer, shadowlancerx
Vote Count 1.18 (9 to lynch)
[7] Huntzilla - Cyan, Gentleman Johnny, Gruffinchops, Rodemy, killjoy, Cantripmancer, shadowlancerx
[4] AtheistGod - Mindreaver, Huntzilla, Grapefruit21, fulcrum
[1] Grapefruit21 - Rhand
[1] Cyan - TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
[1] Bur - AtheistGod
[1] Mindreaver - quixotic72
Not Voting: Bur
On the Cyan EoD switch that he's been holding up as proof of towniness. Yes it prevented a no lynch and took away the opportunity for town to switch and vote Hunt but it also is proof to be held up later of towniness.
So D1 summary Cyan scum worlds look less likely (but possible) but Mind/Shadow/Typh works fine.
Vote Count 2.04 (8 to lynch)
[5] TheRealStinkyJoeTerry - Rhand, Cyan, killjoy, shadowlancerx, Huntzilla
[3] Mindreaver - Rodemy, Cantripmancer, fulcrum
[1] Bur - quixotic72
[1] Huntzilla - Grapefruit21
[1] Cyan - TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
[1] quixotic72 - Bur
Not Voting: Mindreaver, Gruffinchops
This is the first D2 wagon that sticks out to me. Cyan and Shadow voting together again. Not sure what to make of it, but they are together a ton.
Fulcrum spends a bit of time on Mind on D2. Seems like a slight blow to my fulcrum/typh theory. Could have been thinking it's a lost cause and get the bus in but that is biased thinking by me.
Another blow to the cyan as scum world is it puts all three active scum onto KJ. I guess that probably has to be the case given my reads on SJT and Cantrip (and is why I really need to do due diligence there), but it's still feels like it should be unlikely.
So conclusions based on VC's Shadow looks more scummy than Mind. I paid no attention to Rhand which was a mistake I'll try to rectify tomorrow. Same with Cantrip.
Either way I feel comfortable with voting Shadow right now, but going to wait for claims to play out.
FOS: Shadow