GG, hard fought game. Well played Proph you were incredible, I'm really impressed.
I hope Grapefruit is OK, he was absolutely up for the F3 fight so there's no way he just bailed on the game because he didn't want to give it a go. Something really important must have come up. It's a shame that definitely cost us the game, but we were always up against it in the F3 anyway and I think we gave it a good go from a very rocky D1 lurk-out.
Sorry for bailing. I was unwell and slept for most of 3 days straight. I just couldn't post through it. You came in so well and almost saved the game for us and definitely made it a ton more fun for me. Thank you so much Eco. Sorry I couldn't bring the win home.
GG to town. I thought we had you completely fooled at one stage but you all kept grinding away and eventually got pretty close. I'd like to think I'd have had a shot to convince Proph at the EoD but it felt like he was getting pretty close. It was really fun playing with all of you. Thanks!
And thanks to HR for hosting! I really enjoyed the flavor!
@Proph I hrrmmmmmm'ed at Cantrip's post because of him saying meta was a big part of his read. Felt very weird to claim a meta read on a suspected identity. Then he gave a bunch of hedging before sticking with the read. Had the potential of TMI.
The second question is because I didn't really want to argue again that you were being driven by an agenda. I had outlined my (incorrect) case on that elsewhere.
The third question will be answered in my self ISO but the short answer is I really thought I'd caught something early with you and was probably falling to confirmation bias in reading subsequent posts. I'd said early on that I should reevaluate if you were able to keep up not the activity but the direct engagement but never really did that. I took your reevaluation of me to be backing down from conflict after EoD1 when I survived. As for the "kid gloves" to use your words it wasn't exactly about the way you posted at KJ but the way you handled the thread flow. I thought it fit because you were leaving him in the PoE but not actively trying to bury him. I wouldn't call most of what you did actively defending him but prioritizing other targets.
@Proph I trust you to take your time and do the reading. Please let me know if there is anything I can answer for you. Sorry for tunneling you all game I was very wrong and would have cost us the game. It's so good that you and Wisp decided to go with Eco first or I could have easily lost us the game toDay.
The previous cases made against KJ are still good.
I'm really sorry. I just can't play the game right now.
I see Proph is back to thinking it's me. Which lol.
Going with my prior feeling since I'm way out of date. It's probably KJ/Eco but I'm still paranoid about Proph/KJ even though wisp is adamant that team doesn't make any sense.
Eco's walls on Proph and me are fine. I just don't have the time to dig into them right now but like I can't point to any massive red flags at a glance. And his little back and forth with Wisp about my EoD1 feels natural-ish, but like he kind of has to be scum here I think. I'll try to get back into this a bit more in depth but today is a bit busy and with Proph now looking like he might actually be town the game kind of feels easy. Wisp is never scum so if Proph is legit then it's solved.
OK, just wondering. Based on what I saw from you in Matter Mafia, your scum game would have had to seriously level up in a span of a year, and.. I would be very impressed if you did that tbh.
I would like to think that Matter isn't representative of my scum game but the only scum game I'm proud of is Pirates and that is like 3 or 4 years ago now.
@Wisp Okay let's talk KJ. He's now suddenly become my most confident read, are you still town reading his emotional outburst?
@Proph if you're scum here that is the craziest play I have ever seen. I know you're still working on your ISO's but what do you make of KJ spending all day promising to try and clear you? I guess getting consumed by TMI like you said but that is an approach to try to avoid losing not to try and win.
If you're town here both KJ and Eco defending you when Wisp and I were working up to a vote is just wild stuff.
Why can't this be easy..... Time to re-reevaluate Proph. Him not thunderdoming me here is such an insane play to make here if he's scum that I don't believe it. Now I just want to vote KJ here I think and figure out Eco/Proph tomorrow. Still planning to read Eco today but man......
And to answer your question I never rolled scum on MU. Both my champs games were town. As was my The Thing and Tarot games.
I don't defend Osie/GJ to the ends of the earth Day 1 if I'm scum. I take my easy mislunch and get out of there - you've seen this before with ZDS in Snow White Mafia. Maybe I try to avoid accountability somehow, but I don't lay my neck on the line to save GJ if I have a red role PM.
I don't push DoTA this hard if I'm scum. I struggle with massive TMI as a wolf and it would have been difficult for me to push DoTA knowing that he was town. I'm way more comfortable bussing buddies than pushing mislunches as scum because I know their alignment.
So as scum you don't hard push town or hard defend them. Got it
But seriously I am making to effort to not be completely tunneled and doing the legwork. I've been doing it slowly myself but my KJ dive only deepened my convictions. Going to do Eco/Cantrip next. Was hoping to get more out of him toDay first but that ship has sailed.
I mean his high/low mindset is bad, since even though from my perspective, I know it exists, given my now town read of KJ, it just came out of no where, when the other easier world could have just been a bunch of low posters. He spent most of the game ignoring both me and Proph on a macro level, taking w/e micro post he liked, swapping us back and forth
is it bad? yes? is it malicious? maybe? I'm going towards no, and I think there are better things to highlight if you want to bury wolf!Killjoy here
I mean I disagree? Pretty strongly, I personally think it's the second most egregious thing in his ISO because it's highlighting his lack of solving. He's working backwards from first principles to hide a lack of solving with it. He's saying the scum must be this and looking for people who fit rather than looking for scum and then trying to make sense of the gamestate around his reads.
For the record the worst thing is the way he drops threads in a very un-KJ like way. If you was you or your brother it wouldn't be a concern but for KJ to drop things with 0 progression is a massive red flag.
Still think Proph is scummier for the record but I'm feeling better about KJ being the buddy with his actions as well the team making sense as buddies.
Even though I solved it with my last post, I guess I'll still soldier on with these reviews.
Killjoy
I liked one of Killjoy's first posts, where he made an observation that my failure to include Timetwister in my list of Blue cards to vote suggested that I would be less likely scum-alligned with DoTA. Because, if we were buddies, I would probably have been more conscious of leaving my buddy deliberately off a list he might otherwise have been included on. I thought that was a fair observation, and showed some kind of critical thinking/game solving mentality. It was just one sentence though, and certainly not something he couldn't have said as scum.
Another reasonable observation is at #267 where he points out to DoTA that DoTA is questioning whether Osie and I are trying to figure each other out or not (or just posting for the sake of show), and he asks DoTA - if trying to figure each other out is one of the possibilities - why does DoTA also say he doesn't think it's a T/T interaction? What specifically makes him feel that? This is a fair question, which again seems to show a game-solving mentality. But again, I would say it's also not outside scum-range, particularly because as scum Killjoy would know that this was, in fact, a T/T interaction. This post does give me "Killjoy less likely aligned with DoTA" vibes though.
In #324 Killjoy makes another "I think they are less likely aligned" observation regarding DV and Osie for what he regards as a weak attack on Osie by DV (basically Osie gave Proph an early "town" read and DV questioned the genuineness of this read). All this seems fair.
Killjoy seems to suspect Proph a little early on for what he perceives as Proph asking some poor questions. The good here is that Killjoy is directly engaging Proph on the topic, and not just saying it into the void (and voting). It's more probing, like he's trying to solve Proph. So, I think it's still fine.
He then throws out some more comprehensive thoughts at #475.
Thinks I am likely Town because I got some heat/criticism early for doing essentially what I always do, and he thinks that criticism might have been more likely to come from scum. Not sure about this reasoning - a lot came from Osie - but it doesn't feel like it's "insider" info leaking out here.
Proph he seems to have come around on as more likely Town, as a rusty Town Proph who hasn't Towned it up in awhile makes sense to Killjoy for why Proph's questions aren't the greatest. Okay.
No opinion on Cantrip. Just says he's one of the "tricksy" ones who uses a lot of words and needs to keep an eye out. Okay.
No good opinion on Osie yet. Says his posts have been...fine? Also, probably okay, though he probably should have a better opinion on one of the top posters who's been the subject of much discussion thus far.
DoTA - some decent posts but not a lot of content. Fine. This is kind of how I felt also.
Doesn't remember much about Grape and need to re-read him. Maybe fine? Does he ever do this?
Current best guesses for scum are DV (whiff) and Last.
DV because he's both (1) aggressively jumped on Proph, but also (2) been "hedgy in a bad way." Which are somewhat contradictory things. Also, I don't see where he mentioned anything about this before. Before, he seemed to be questioning DV for DV's theory that Osie was showing inside info in declaring Proph Town. That wasn't DV going after Proph at all. Maybe DV did start going after Proph (don't remember and not looking it up) but Killjoy never said anything about that before this, and also doesn't seem to be questioning DV about it now either. Doesn't point out where DV has been hedgy either. So, this looks less solvey and more conclusory.
Last because Killjoy specifically doesn't like Last's progression on him. Claims Last has been saying Killjoy is null to him, but at the same time, claims that Last is arguing repeatedly that others should also not have developed a "Town" read on Killjoy. I read the three post Killjoy linked to make this argument and they are all posts where Last is saying Killjoy is null and he basically has no thoughts. They are not posts where Last is arguing to others that they should not have Town thoughts about Killjoy, so that part of this argument was not supported here. Maybe Last did make those statements, I just don't see them yet and I am not trying to look them up. If Last did, it's a better argument than if Killjoy's entire point is based on a read of only the three posts he quoted.
Something to possibly be said about KJ not jumping the Osie wagon and seeming to be willing to give GJ more time to get into the game.
He then engages a bit with both of his above referenced scum-reads. With DV, he points out a DV post he says he didn't like, along with what he perceives to be a scummy pattern of behavior. With Last, he goes much more into depth. He breaks down why he feels Last's repeated remarks that KJ is "null" looked malicious to him (i.e. an attempt to get other people to agree and degrade their Town-reads on KJ.) This is, in some ways, an answer to my question above, though I'm not sure how much I agree with it. He finally challenges DV's scum read on himself - saying essentially that DV should know better.
I do feel a certain amount of sincerity here. If this is a scum-KJ pleading his case, he's doing a pretty good job.
He puts off an Osie read/opinion though. Which isn't great considering they were still top suspect approaching deadline.
Finally does re-read and gives that opinion in #524. Conclusion is that Osie might be scum. He's seeing a strange progression on Osie's scum-reads (arguing why he thinks one person is scum while voting another, and then seeming to switch to a suspicion of DoTA from out of nowhere, finally flipping on KJ himself after initially saying he thought KJ was Town.) He excuses his earlier failure to read Osie as he just didn't want to because he's traditionally bad at it.
And, eh, I don't see too many red flags with this. I'm probably biased since I was one of the biggest Osie pushers, but what this isn't is simple bandwaggoning. Looks like some independent thought going on here.
He then makes an observation that probably doesn't serve him well if scum, which is that he doesn't think Proph could be scum with anyone BUT Osie at this point, given the way Proph is defending him. Doesn't think scum-Proph would go this hard defending an easy mis-yeet. Given scum KJ knows that this will be a mis-yeet, seems less likely he would want to cut off his ability to argue Proph is still scum later, not when he didn't have to.
And then he revises his opinion on DV towards the end of the day, saying he no longer thinks DV is scum. Not quite sure how this happened.
KJ appears to have made the same mistake I did about the deadline, but he realized it in time and was around for the deadline, indicating a willingness to vote for GJ/Osie or Last. Which is at least consistent. Then settles on GJ, remarking he thought he had more time. This still seems fair to me. The "counter-wagon" that was developing at the last minute was on Grape, and KJ didn't really say anything about that, which isn't great, but with the deadline, it's more understandable. I do note a lack of opinion on Grape for basically the entire day.
At the end of all this, I...actually mostly like Killjoy? I agree with some of his stuff, but even more than that, I like his thought processes, and I don't see anything malicious here. His whole Tone is also very natural and just appears unforced to me. It's not an enormous amount of content, but it's not a lurking scum amount of content.
Verdict: Could be Town!
This was an interesting thing to reread after doing my ISO. We basically highlighted the same posts more or less but had different things as the most indicative. For example he mentioned a couple times that he was curious if KJ followed up on threads (which never happened) and it wasn't a major concern for him but it was for me. I also find the point about scum not wanting to commit to Proph is only scum with GJ convincing since KJ didn't remotely stick to that belief. And that seems to have been one of Axel's stronger points in KJ's favor.
Axel being pinged by the sudden change of mind on DV but not being overly concerned is where I'm most in disagreement with him. To me town!KJ is methodical, follows his own leads, doesn't really care about the flow of the game. Here he's dropping his own reads left and right and is really responsive to outside pressures. It's possible he's trying to play more collaboratively as town but here it strikes me as something he's doing as scum to avoid pressure.
If I'm breaking down DoTA's post on KJ it seems to boil down to "Killjoy changed his reads a lot. And he said a lot of people could still be scum."
Which, I guess? KJ has been a bit all over, moreso on D2 I feel. I am a little sympathetic because I can't get a handle on very much either. But he did an independent iso of Cantrip and concluded "might be a wolf." Then when asked to list his "top two" said "DoTA + Wisp." But quickly added "Eco is down there too."
And more recently "Proph + Eco."
I really don't like this "One High, One Low" poster spec. Because it's like his "scum" read on Proph is entirely derived from it by virtue of now thinking Last might be Town (therefore, the other "high" poster is the scum.) He has got a pool of 4, and all he's doing is mixing and matching combinations of those 4, 1 high and 1 low. Which is bad.
Also for what it's worth Axel here can be seen souring on KJ after his wall. Still thought Dota was a better bet by his voting record but this is not a strong vote of confidence and points to the same 1hi/1low shenanigans that I didn't like.
Going to reread his outburst from last night because you're clearly believing this but I don't see it at all right now.
Sorry for bailing. I was unwell and slept for most of 3 days straight. I just couldn't post through it. You came in so well and almost saved the game for us and definitely made it a ton more fun for me. Thank you so much Eco. Sorry I couldn't bring the win home.
GG to town. I thought we had you completely fooled at one stage but you all kept grinding away and eventually got pretty close. I'd like to think I'd have had a shot to convince Proph at the EoD but it felt like he was getting pretty close. It was really fun playing with all of you. Thanks!
And thanks to HR for hosting! I really enjoyed the flavor!
The second question is because I didn't really want to argue again that you were being driven by an agenda. I had outlined my (incorrect) case on that elsewhere.
The third question will be answered in my self ISO but the short answer is I really thought I'd caught something early with you and was probably falling to confirmation bias in reading subsequent posts. I'd said early on that I should reevaluate if you were able to keep up not the activity but the direct engagement but never really did that. I took your reevaluation of me to be backing down from conflict after EoD1 when I survived. As for the "kid gloves" to use your words it wasn't exactly about the way you posted at KJ but the way you handled the thread flow. I thought it fit because you were leaving him in the PoE but not actively trying to bury him. I wouldn't call most of what you did actively defending him but prioritizing other targets.
Every time I see this image I think it's blood splatter on his shoulder before a second look.
@Proph I trust you to take your time and do the reading. Please let me know if there is anything I can answer for you. Sorry for tunneling you all game I was very wrong and would have cost us the game. It's so good that you and Wisp decided to go with Eco first or I could have easily lost us the game toDay.
The previous cases made against KJ are still good.
I'm really sorry. I just can't play the game right now.
I see Proph is back to thinking it's me. Which lol.
Going with my prior feeling since I'm way out of date. It's probably KJ/Eco but I'm still paranoid about Proph/KJ even though wisp is adamant that team doesn't make any sense.
Vote: KJ
I would like to think that Matter isn't representative of my scum game but the only scum game I'm proud of is Pirates and that is like 3 or 4 years ago now.
@Wisp Okay let's talk KJ. He's now suddenly become my most confident read, are you still town reading his emotional outburst?
I feel like I shouldn't like you voting after me but I don't think I hate it here if it's those two cross voting first.
As for votes locking I don't see anything about in the OP about votes locking so I'd assume they don't.
If you're town here both KJ and Eco defending you when Wisp and I were working up to a vote is just wild stuff.
And to answer your question I never rolled scum on MU. Both my champs games were town. As was my The Thing and Tarot games.
So as scum you don't hard push town or hard defend them. Got it
But seriously I am making to effort to not be completely tunneled and doing the legwork. I've been doing it slowly myself but my KJ dive only deepened my convictions. Going to do Eco/Cantrip next. Was hoping to get more out of him toDay first but that ship has sailed.
I mean I disagree? Pretty strongly, I personally think it's the second most egregious thing in his ISO because it's highlighting his lack of solving. He's working backwards from first principles to hide a lack of solving with it. He's saying the scum must be this and looking for people who fit rather than looking for scum and then trying to make sense of the gamestate around his reads.
For the record the worst thing is the way he drops threads in a very un-KJ like way. If you was you or your brother it wouldn't be a concern but for KJ to drop things with 0 progression is a massive red flag.
Still think Proph is scummier for the record but I'm feeling better about KJ being the buddy with his actions as well the team making sense as buddies.
This was an interesting thing to reread after doing my ISO. We basically highlighted the same posts more or less but had different things as the most indicative. For example he mentioned a couple times that he was curious if KJ followed up on threads (which never happened) and it wasn't a major concern for him but it was for me. I also find the point about scum not wanting to commit to Proph is only scum with GJ convincing since KJ didn't remotely stick to that belief. And that seems to have been one of Axel's stronger points in KJ's favor.
Axel being pinged by the sudden change of mind on DV but not being overly concerned is where I'm most in disagreement with him. To me town!KJ is methodical, follows his own leads, doesn't really care about the flow of the game. Here he's dropping his own reads left and right and is really responsive to outside pressures. It's possible he's trying to play more collaboratively as town but here it strikes me as something he's doing as scum to avoid pressure.
Also for what it's worth Axel here can be seen souring on KJ after his wall. Still thought Dota was a better bet by his voting record but this is not a strong vote of confidence and points to the same 1hi/1low shenanigans that I didn't like.
Going to reread his outburst from last night because you're clearly believing this but I don't see it at all right now.