The main point for me was knowing when I could complain if I didn't hit Bazaar in game 1 often enough. When you do mulligan to Bazaar, you should not get bazaar approximately every 1/(1-.942) approx = 17 games
I picked up Vintage Dredge, and Vinatge as well, for the first time yesterday for an event where I won a Mox Jet. It was very fun. My friend told me when playing the deck to mulligan to Bazaar of Baghdad, no matter what. He said I was 93% to hit it if I was willing to mulligan to 1. It was pretty good advice. Still, that number sounded haphazard, so I wanted to know it exactly.
I've seen a lot of haphazard claims about the probability of mulliganing to bazaar in a 4 Serum Powder Vintage Dredge deck. Every single proposed answer that I've seen has just made a simulation (many incorrect already) a run it some arbitrary number of times. I've seen answers ranging from 90% to 96%
It's 94.1681291934%, but I wouldn't but stock in the last digit.
The same answer was reached by a simulation running for 10,000,000 iterations, but exactness is good. The exact solution takes a fraction of a second to run, and a large simulation takes much longer.
Upon looking at the comprehensive rules, the question is more subtle. The comprehensive rules state that things can have protection from qualities, but never specify what a quality is.
And what I just said is a lie, the rules say a quality can be any characteristic value, but now I can't find the definition of characteristic value in the rules.
Nevermind, I found it.
Characterstics are name, mana cost, color, color indicator, card type, subtype,
supertype, expansion symbol, rules text, abilities, power, toughness, loyalty, hand modifier, and life
modifier.
Progenitus has protection from all possible values that any of the above characteristics is allowed to take.
Progenitus has protection from everything. I realize that this means he can't be equipped, enchanted, fortified, blocked, dealt damage, or targeted.
My question is: what are all possible things in magic that a card can have protection from.
Does it have "protection from Fourth Edition?", "protection from people named Mark?", "protection from artists whose middle name starts with J?", "protection from you?", "protection from White bordered cards?"
What in magic is a valid thing to have protection from?
I've gotten the turn 2 kill exactly once, while on the draw against storm, who had the turn 3 kill. It involved misty, ghost quarter, star, reshape, and luck. Although to be fair, if at any point after sunrising I wasn't sure I could make another iteration, I would've just stopped having sunrised for value.
I got stuck in a daily recently with only 1 bloom, drawing 3 other blooms before any reshapes. I did however have 2 ghost quarters, which can also net mana and was able to kill him.
I picked up Vintage Dredge, and Vinatge as well, for the first time yesterday for an event where I won a Mox Jet. It was very fun. My friend told me when playing the deck to mulligan to Bazaar of Baghdad, no matter what. He said I was 93% to hit it if I was willing to mulligan to 1. It was pretty good advice. Still, that number sounded haphazard, so I wanted to know it exactly.
I've seen a lot of haphazard claims about the probability of mulliganing to bazaar in a 4 Serum Powder Vintage Dredge deck. Every single proposed answer that I've seen has just made a simulation (many incorrect already) a run it some arbitrary number of times. I've seen answers ranging from 90% to 96%
The linked program (https://github.com/Dritte/VintageDredge/blob/master/mulliganToBazaar.py) is a combinatorial calculation, not a simulation, of the solution for calculating the exact probability as proposed by a friend, Daniel Kane, PhD.
It's 94.1681291934%, but I wouldn't but stock in the last digit.
The same answer was reached by a simulation running for 10,000,000 iterations, but exactness is good. The exact solution takes a fraction of a second to run, and a large simulation takes much longer.
And what I just said is a lie, the rules say a quality can be any characteristic value, but now I can't find the definition of characteristic value in the rules.
Nevermind, I found it.
Characterstics are name, mana cost, color, color indicator, card type, subtype,
supertype, expansion symbol, rules text, abilities, power, toughness, loyalty, hand modifier, and life
modifier.
Progenitus has protection from all possible values that any of the above characteristics is allowed to take.
My question is: what are all possible things in magic that a card can have protection from.
Does it have "protection from Fourth Edition?", "protection from people named Mark?", "protection from artists whose middle name starts with J?", "protection from you?", "protection from White bordered cards?"
What in magic is a valid thing to have protection from?
4 Darksteel Citadel
4 Ghost Quarter
7 Island
2 Plains
17 lands
2 Etherium Sculptor
2 creatures
1 Banefire
4 Chromatic Sphere
4 Chromatic Star
4 Conjurer's Bauble
3 Elsewhere Flask
4 Faith's Reward
4 Ichor Wellspring
3 Krark-Clan Ironworks
3 Lotus Bloom
1 Mox Opal
2 Noxious Revival
4 Reshape
4 Second Sunrise
41 other spells
Sideboard
1 Angel's Grace
2 Defense Grid
3 Echoing Truth
1 Ensnaring Bridge
1 Laboratory Maniac
1 Pithing Needle
4 Silence
2 Wipe Away