3 KCI in the T8 would be horrific. Coupled with all the other known metrics of the deck (MWP, 2018 GP prevalence), the open question of KCI's logistical impact on events, its potential contribution towards a battle of sideboard, and the general dislike towards the deck, and I think there is sufficient aggregate information to make a ban case for a KCI-specific card, likely Trawler, that would neither kill the deck nor hurt other decks that aren't offending.
Yuuuuup. Nass's win percentage with KCI is like 87% over the last three Modern GPs, and Black was on camera winning through multiple early Relics. Scrap Trawler is the card to hit to take out the deck's most ridiculous lines without killing it outright, and Wizards seems more inclined to weaken than completely kill decks. Reminds me of Amulet Bloom all over again.
Dark Ritual for Modern? There's zero chance of this ever happening, and for good reason. A +2 mana ritual castable on the first turn would be extremely broken, and not just for Ad Nauseam. Noooooo thanks.
Let's be realistic: If this set does come to pass, it won't be as the savior of high secondary market prices for format staples any more than the Masters sets were. Originally, I thought this hypothetical set wouldn't command a premium price, as it would be directly competing with the Masters sets. Since Wizards has discontinued them for the foreseeable future though, I can't imagine a set targeted primarily at Modern players going for less than $10 a pack.
The real angle this set would have is that it could reinvigorate equity of some older cards, while also offering new cards to Modern/Legacy/Vintage/Commander players. No traditional Masters set could do either of these things, so as long as they stick with what was popular with them (great draft environment, desired format staples), this fresh experience will make the set at least popular enough to justify trying it once.
It is admittedly a bit presumptuous to assume that a survey from last August would directly affect a product release less than a year later. There is a very healthy chance that this supplemental set turns out to be something else. That said, Wizards has been making a fair amount of last-minute changes recently; see how Ultimate Masters went from being a graveyard-themed Masters set to the last of its kind, not to mention any of the tournament structure changes and reversals.
What we do know is that as late as last summer, Wizards was interested in the idea of cards bypassing Standard and making it directly into Modern. My guess is that with the Masters sets going away that this will be the replacement, at least this once. They're likely tweaking the idea of new-to-Modern reprints and entirely new cards into what would have been this summer's themed Masters set. What was the time it took for Wizards to announce themed Masters sets, then change what would have been their second into Ultimate Masters? They announced the themed Masters sets on February 22 of last year, so in less than ten months they had both altered and released the next one. I could very easily see something similar happening here, especially if they had already developed most of the new cards and reprints for the format. New prints for Modern also means new cards for Commander/Legacy/Vintage as well, so there's even more appeal for other formats than traditional Modern Masters sets had.
Even if it doesn't happen this year (again, a distinct possibility), it's really only a matter of time. We know they are interested in the idea, and there's a vacuum to be filled from the exit of traditional Masters sets that taps into the lucrative Modern market. With MaRo's excitement about paving new ground, it's hard to imagine it being a retread of anything we've seen, like another Un-set or Battlebond 2. I do agree that Wizards will design whatever for draft like you mentioned, as they have been consistent with this outside of preconstructed decks. It could be just about anything, but we have more clues pointing toward a Modern-focused set than anything else at the moment, and Wizards has already demonstrated working in the kinds of time tables that would make this possible.
id just like to point out the pretty substantial assumption that the survey results even indicated this as a popular course of action. at this point we are just taking it as fact that everyone wants or wanted something like this to begin with.
You're right; no one knows the results of the survey mentioned in the OP except for Hasbro/Wizards. However, it doesn't have to be "everyone" who wants such a set; Wizards can bank on the popularity of Modern and gauge general interest, so as long as those results weren't surprisingly negative, they likely think they can capitalize on the idea. The fact that they even ran the survey in the first place is a good indication that this idea was more than a fleeting thought.
dont get me wrong, im not saying im not behind the idea. however i also recognize that itd be a significant departure from the norm. as it has been pointed out plenty of times in this thread such a product would/could include cards specifically designed for modern play. we have seen wizards design touch on this over 2018, but it is still different than an fully explicit showcasing of intent that a modern only (and beyond of course) set might contain.
Also true. Again, the fact that they are apparently interested enough to poll about it speaks volumes already. Couple this with the fact that MaRo is excited about a supplemental set that will be "paving new ground" and I think we have a decent chance of getting this set this year. Far from a guarantee, granted, but as several have pointed out, the Modern market looks to be ripe, and they need something else after the now-discontinued Masters sets to really make that revenue up.
i do think a need for such a product will only grow with time, since the gap between standard and modern only grows wider with every new standard set. that said we are still at a point where standard sets are very influential in creating new decks or empowering others in modern; which brings into question why wizards would want to press this particular button now. arguments that it 'would sell well' or make them a lot of money are flimsy at best. they are functionally printing money regardless.
I fully expect that Standard sets will still be the premiere way cards enter the Modern format over time. They want to press the button on this supplemental set now because they will likely have a product that sells well which can also milk equity out of cards that have never been Modern legal, but don't fit with their Standard philosophies. It's not a flimsy argument for a company to look out for their bottom line, and you've got to know a set like this would sell at least well enough to justify creating it.
2. Reprints of cards from eternal formats which had never previously been Modern legal
3. Entirely new cards
I'm looking forward to these two kinds of cards from Modern only sets.
The entire point of this thread is that Wizards polled specifically about a supplemental set that introduces cards into Modern without having them in a Standard-legal set first. This wouldn't be a Modern (or any other) Masters set, as those sets are reprints only and do not change legality for formats (other than Pauper). Coupled with the fact that MaRo recently blogged about a supplemental set that will be "paving new ground" this year, there's a decent chance that we might get such a set this year.
I think there's a few things that will be problematic with the idea of a modern only product, though. If it is a randomized booster, than it is usually made with draft in mind, hence any booster pack product they make for modern is effectively a masters set. If the product is a preconstructed one, how expensive would they have to make it to include notable cards like Cavern of Souls, Liliana of the Veil, and other heavy hitters? I could see them making a modern oriented constructed offering, but it's not going to include the cards people really need to complete their decks. Most people are stuck on the most expensive pieces in modern, not the optional niche cards.
Well they did just reprint the cards you mentioned, but I get your point about reprinting needed expensive format staples. My guess is that we'll see something closer to what Modern Masters 2017 was, but padded with all sorts of fun older cards and a few fresh ideas. The enemy fetchlands are the obvious plants to establish a baseline, and we'll likely see a few more in-demand reprints for the same reason, but mostly we'll get older reprints and new cards that would be a bit too much for Standard.
This is one area the community here has put forth many great ideas for. Think more along the cards that wouldn't immediately slot into top-tier decks; stuff like Pillage and Terravore for Ponza would be fantastic, even if they don't push the deck to be best in the format. Utility cards and answers, especially of CMC 3 or greater, are more reasonable for Modern's speed and precedent. Heck, I'm primarily a Gx Tron player, and I'd still love to see cards like Recoil and Vindicate make it into Modern. Build-arounds like Astral Slide would also be fun to have, even if just to get brewers going to relive some nostalgia for awhile.
What I wouldn't expect? Cards that define Legacy formats that are clearly above curve, like Wasteland and Force of Will, are the riskiest for the stability of Modern. For similar reasons, I'd not hold my breath for any good rituals/mana rocks, cantrips, tutors, or cheap discard. Similarly, anything that can break the game open like Zuran Orb doesn't belong in Modern. I wouldn't expect many cards more valuable than Containment Priest or Baleful Strix either, as that's about as risky as Wizards should get on reprints; the set value should be held up by existing staples in need of reprint, as you've noted. (Stoneforge Mystic and Batterskull would work though!)
It well could be, honestly. We have two things to look at regarding this fresh take on supplemental sets: the poll Wizards did last year regarding cards newly legal to Modern that bypass Standard (see thread OP), and the fact that Commander sets as they exist always sell well (despite the drop in card value coupled with the lack of notable reprints in 2018).
Though a Commander overhaul might be possible, I think that Wizards won't risk revamping such a successful product, and there haven't been any indications they have considered this. They have been considering the new-to-Modern supplemental set, though, and since we know the Masters sets are done as we knew them, I feel this set is much more likely than something Commander focused.
If (when) it does happen, I'm wondering what the MSRP will be. This is about the closest thing we will get to Modern Masters, so I'd be surprised if they don't charge the $10 per booster for such a set. Enemy fetches are in need of another reprint, and it's not like Wizards/Hasbro to undercapitalize on these things. This would establish good base equity, and help maintain it for the other included cards.
I also wonder how much would be printed, but of course this is far less important than the set contents.
Would a Preordain unban be more realistic if Manamorphose was banned? I'm not normally a fan of any swap ban arguments, but Manamorphose is a key card for the Arclight Phoenix decks as well as Storm. If the Phoenix decks in particular end up dominant, I would expect Manamorphose to be one of the first cards on the chopping block, as it's one of the most critical pieces to explosive early turns.
Now it's way too early to be actually advocating for Manamorphose (or anything) to be banned, but if it was to happen down the road, getting Preordain back would dull that sting, while also giving decks like UW Control and GDS more options.
And yeah...SFM can come back anytime now. Maybe the late Spring/early Summer supplemental set next year will be the Modern-legal for the first time set Wizards polled about; if it is, we can expect SFM (and key equipment) to be in, which would be the perfect time to unban her.
I do love it when Wizards gives us good nostalgic reprints, but unfortunately Absorb's mana cost gets tripped up hard by Field of Ruin in Modern UW Control. Field is very impractical to side out since it's a land, and it's a foundation of the deck's success so cutting it is a bad idea.
I love the thought of playing Absorb and Snapcaster Mage together, but it's hard to see this as an essential (or even playable) tool.
If all signs point to something from KCI getting banned, it likely won't be a card shared by other decks that aren't breaking the format like Stirrings. KCI itself is obvious, but would kill the deck outright. Neither Scrap Trawler nor Myr Retriever see competitive play in any other Modern decks, so one of those would be the most likely victim in the event of a targeted ban.
It's nice to see some new URx decks emerging thanks to Crackling Drake and Arclight Phoenix. I have the feeling that Wizards won't risk invalidating strategies like this (and by effect reducing card equity) by unbanning Splinter Twin.
You're probably right about the potential discard spells needing to tutor basics if they hit nonbasics, and that mechanic seems to be design space Wizards is willing to push, so good call there. A three mana discard spell wouldn't be remotely competitive, though.
The real angle this set would have is that it could reinvigorate equity of some older cards, while also offering new cards to Modern/Legacy/Vintage/Commander players. No traditional Masters set could do either of these things, so as long as they stick with what was popular with them (great draft environment, desired format staples), this fresh experience will make the set at least popular enough to justify trying it once.
What we do know is that as late as last summer, Wizards was interested in the idea of cards bypassing Standard and making it directly into Modern. My guess is that with the Masters sets going away that this will be the replacement, at least this once. They're likely tweaking the idea of new-to-Modern reprints and entirely new cards into what would have been this summer's themed Masters set. What was the time it took for Wizards to announce themed Masters sets, then change what would have been their second into Ultimate Masters? They announced the themed Masters sets on February 22 of last year, so in less than ten months they had both altered and released the next one. I could very easily see something similar happening here, especially if they had already developed most of the new cards and reprints for the format. New prints for Modern also means new cards for Commander/Legacy/Vintage as well, so there's even more appeal for other formats than traditional Modern Masters sets had.
Even if it doesn't happen this year (again, a distinct possibility), it's really only a matter of time. We know they are interested in the idea, and there's a vacuum to be filled from the exit of traditional Masters sets that taps into the lucrative Modern market. With MaRo's excitement about paving new ground, it's hard to imagine it being a retread of anything we've seen, like another Un-set or Battlebond 2. I do agree that Wizards will design whatever for draft like you mentioned, as they have been consistent with this outside of preconstructed decks. It could be just about anything, but we have more clues pointing toward a Modern-focused set than anything else at the moment, and Wizards has already demonstrated working in the kinds of time tables that would make this possible.
Also true. Again, the fact that they are apparently interested enough to poll about it speaks volumes already. Couple this with the fact that MaRo is excited about a supplemental set that will be "paving new ground" and I think we have a decent chance of getting this set this year. Far from a guarantee, granted, but as several have pointed out, the Modern market looks to be ripe, and they need something else after the now-discontinued Masters sets to really make that revenue up.
I fully expect that Standard sets will still be the premiere way cards enter the Modern format over time. They want to press the button on this supplemental set now because they will likely have a product that sells well which can also milk equity out of cards that have never been Modern legal, but don't fit with their Standard philosophies. It's not a flimsy argument for a company to look out for their bottom line, and you've got to know a set like this would sell at least well enough to justify creating it.
This is one area the community here has put forth many great ideas for. Think more along the cards that wouldn't immediately slot into top-tier decks; stuff like Pillage and Terravore for Ponza would be fantastic, even if they don't push the deck to be best in the format. Utility cards and answers, especially of CMC 3 or greater, are more reasonable for Modern's speed and precedent. Heck, I'm primarily a Gx Tron player, and I'd still love to see cards like Recoil and Vindicate make it into Modern. Build-arounds like Astral Slide would also be fun to have, even if just to get brewers going to relive some nostalgia for awhile.
What I wouldn't expect? Cards that define Legacy formats that are clearly above curve, like Wasteland and Force of Will, are the riskiest for the stability of Modern. For similar reasons, I'd not hold my breath for any good rituals/mana rocks, cantrips, tutors, or cheap discard. Similarly, anything that can break the game open like Zuran Orb doesn't belong in Modern. I wouldn't expect many cards more valuable than Containment Priest or Baleful Strix either, as that's about as risky as Wizards should get on reprints; the set value should be held up by existing staples in need of reprint, as you've noted. (Stoneforge Mystic and Batterskull would work though!)
Though a Commander overhaul might be possible, I think that Wizards won't risk revamping such a successful product, and there haven't been any indications they have considered this. They have been considering the new-to-Modern supplemental set, though, and since we know the Masters sets are done as we knew them, I feel this set is much more likely than something Commander focused.
If (when) it does happen, I'm wondering what the MSRP will be. This is about the closest thing we will get to Modern Masters, so I'd be surprised if they don't charge the $10 per booster for such a set. Enemy fetches are in need of another reprint, and it's not like Wizards/Hasbro to undercapitalize on these things. This would establish good base equity, and help maintain it for the other included cards.
I also wonder how much would be printed, but of course this is far less important than the set contents.
Now it's way too early to be actually advocating for Manamorphose (or anything) to be banned, but if it was to happen down the road, getting Preordain back would dull that sting, while also giving decks like UW Control and GDS more options.
And yeah...SFM can come back anytime now. Maybe the late Spring/early Summer supplemental set next year will be the Modern-legal for the first time set Wizards polled about; if it is, we can expect SFM (and key equipment) to be in, which would be the perfect time to unban her.
I love the thought of playing Absorb and Snapcaster Mage together, but it's hard to see this as an essential (or even playable) tool.